At present, readers are no longer unfamiliar with China's population profile and problems through popular science and mass media reports by many securities firm researchers. To put it simply, we all know that the birth population is declining nationwide and the population is aging seriously. But for Shandong, the severity of this problem may have exceeded your imagination. Before that, let's take a look at the aging of the population in the country.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 218, there were 1.395 billion people in China, including 235 million people aged -14, 994 million people aged 15-64, and 167 million people aged 65 and above, and the corresponding proportions of each age group in the total population were 16.9% and 71.2% respectively.
According to the standards of the United Nations, this standard has reached a serious aging stage. In 1956, the United Nations published "Population Aging and Its Socio-economic Consequences", which pointed out that when the number of elderly people aged 65 and over in a country or region accounts for more than 7% of the total population, it means that the country or region is aging. In 1982, the World Congress on Ageing in Vienna determined that the proportion of elderly people aged 6 and above in the total population exceeded 1%, which meant that this country or region was seriously aging.
In fact, according to this standard, China has entered the aging stage very early. Statistics show that in 29, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in China reached 8.5%, exceeding the standard of 7% for aging formulated by the United Nations, and has risen to 11.9% in 218.
The aggravation of aging has a far-reaching impact on the economic development of a region, because it affects both the savings level and the consumption level of a region. The level of savings and consumption is precisely the core driving force to promote the economic development of a region.
according to the life cycle hypothesis, rational consumers should arrange their consumption and savings according to their lifetime income, so that their lifetime income and consumption are equal. The life cycle hypothesis divides a person's life into three stages: young age (-14 years old), middle age (15-64 years old) and old age (retirement stage), and holds that the consumption level in a person's life is fixed.
Generally speaking, in the young age, family income is low, but because the income will increase in the future, families often spend most of their income on consumption, or even borrow money for consumption, which leads to consumption exceeding income.
In the middle age, although the household income will increase, the proportion of consumption in the income will decrease, because part of the income will be used to pay off the debts of the young age and part will be used to save for the elderly. In the old age, family retirement income will decrease, consumption will be greater than income, and savings will also decrease.
Through analysis, we can draw the following three conclusions about the changes of the age structure of China population in 29:
According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the savings rate in China in 217 was 47%, which was 4.8 percentage points lower than that in 28, which was 51.8%. Among them, the household savings rate has decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared with 28.
According to the data released by Shandong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in 218, there were 1.47 million people in * * *, of which 18.8% were aged -14, 66.88% were aged 15-64, and 15.4% were aged 65 and over, which was 3.14 percentage points higher than the national level.
Statistics show that the aging in Shandong Province is increasing rapidly in recent years. In 211, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in this province was only 1.1%, which increased by 5.3 percentage points in just seven years, with an average annual increase of .72 percentage points. At this rate, it is expected to reach the aging level of Japan in 235 or earlier.
according to the demographic results released by the Japanese Ministry of internal affairs and communications on September 16th, 218, the number of people over 65 who are defined as the elderly population in Japan has increased by 44, compared with the previous year, reaching 35.57 million, accounting for 28.1% of the total population, setting a new record once again. In addition, the number of elderly people over 8 years old in the elderly population increased by 31, over the previous year, reaching 11.4 million (accounting for 8.7% of the total population); The population over 9 years old increased by 14, over the previous year to 2.19 million (accounting for 8.7% of the total population).
In contrast, the situation in Guangdong Province, which is also a populous province, is much better than that in Shandong Province.
Statistics show that in 21, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in Guangdong Province was 6.79%, which still failed to meet the standard of aging. By 218, the proportion of the population of this age group in Guangdong Province was only 8.62%, which was much lower than the national level of 11.9% and 6.42 percentage points lower than that of Shandong Province.