In the third quarter of 200213, the coal industry was continuously increased by Public Offering of Fund. By the end of the third quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the market value of the coal industry held by the fund accounted for 0.49% of the total market value of the fund shares (+0.38pct year-on-year and +0.65438 pct quarter-on-quarter), and the total market value of the shares held by the fund was 3101800 million yuan. Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu 'an, etc. Favored by fund products. Shaanxi Coal Industry and Orchid Science and Technology Co., Ltd. increased their positions by 654.38+48 billion shares and 654.38+42 billion shares respectively.
The performance in the first three quarters increased by 65% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 20021,the 29 listed coal companies we focused on achieved a total operating income of 986.632 billion yuan, up 29.6% year-on-year; The total net profit is 1437. 65.438+0.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.1%; The total net profit attributable to the parent company was 65,438+065,438+0.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%.
If China Shenhua and 28 listed coal companies which have great influence on the industry are excluded, the total net profit in the first three quarters of 200211billion yuan, up by108.8% year-on-year; The total net profit attributable to the parent company was 74.805 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105. 1%. In the third quarter, the increase in coal prices continued to expand, and the overall profitability of the industry continued to improve. The performance of 202 1Q3 continued to rise. In Q2 of 20021,the quarterly net profit of 29 listed companies was 39 1.6 1 billion yuan, and the performance of 20021Q3 was 45.889 billion yuan, up 17.2% compared with Q2. Excluding China Shenhua, the net profit of 28 listed companies in Q2 at 202 1 was 24.746 billion yuan, while in Q3 it was 3 1 1. 6.4 billion yuan, an increase of 25.9% over Q2. In the third quarter, coal prices rose significantly, and the performance in a single quarter continued to rise month-on-month, and profitability improved.
Investment strategy: the performance of market coal companies has increased greatly, and Shaanxi coal and orchids have been further increased by the fund. In the third quarter of 200212002, coal prices rose sharply, and the growth rate of performance increased. In the third quarter alone, the total performance of 29 key companies increased by 69%, excluding Shenhua, which was 133%. Among them, the Q3 performance of Haohua Energy, Lanhua Kechuang and Lu 'an Huaneng increased by 7 1 times, 12 times and 6.2 times respectively, accounting for the coal market share. In the third quarter, the attention of the coal industry continued to increase, and the proportion of key public posts increased by 0. 16pct to 0.48%. Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu 'an were favored by fund products, and many stocks were added. Shaanxi Coal Industry and Orchid Technology have increased their positions by a large margin. At present, the policy of the coal industry has attracted much attention, and measures to increase production by limiting prices have been continuously introduced. The period of the greatest pressure on coal price adjustment may have passed, but coal prices need to be further stabilized. In the medium and long term, we believe that the constraints on coal supply are still very strong. Even if a new mine is opened, it will take 3-5 years to put into production. Under the background of little annual demand increase, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity may be high profit. Now the mainstream stocks will pay dividends of 50-60%, and the dividend rate of coal stocks is expected to reach double-digit level. Despite the price limit policy and other controls, the coal price center will still be significantly improved during the "14 th Five-Year Plan" period compared with the past few years, and coal assets need to be re-priced. The stock price has not fully reflected this, and we will continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Give priority to the high proportion of coal in the market and flexible capacity growth targets. Thermal coal stocks suggest paying attention to: Haohua Energy (market-oriented pricing, very flexible performance); Yanzhou Coal Industry (coal, coal chemical two-wheel drive, flexible and high dividend target); Shaanxi coal industry (a growth leader with excellent resource endowment, stable performance and high dividends); China Coal Energy (coal production capacity is still expected to expand, and coal chemical business provides performance flexibility); China Shenhua (a giant coal enterprise with stable performance and high dividends). It is suggested to pay attention to metallurgical coal: Lu 'an Huaneng (high proportion of coal in the market and great performance flexibility); Pingdingshan Coal Co., Ltd. (the leading coking coal company in Central and South China with high dividends, which has a large room for reducing staff and increasing efficiency; Shanxi coking coal (the leader of coking coal industry and the target of Shanxi state-owned enterprise reform); Huaibei Mining (leading coking coal in low-valued areas, with coking coal, sand aggregate, coking coal and other performance growth points going hand in hand); Shanxi Coking (holding 49% equity of China Coal Huajin, with flexible performance of coking coal assets); Jizhong Energy (market-oriented sales mechanism, leading coking coal in the field of low valuation). It is suggested to pay attention to anthracite: orchid scientific and technological innovation (coal chemical integration, future capacity increase is expected, coal price flexibility is great); Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: kailuan shares (the leader of low-valued coal coke integration); Jinneng Technology (a coke company with strong profitability, and Qingdao new PDH project will become the growth engine of the company); China Xu Yang Group (the leader in coke industry, with increasing market share); Shaanxi black cat (strong growth logic, rising volume and price).
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is less than expected; Too much policy control; Renewable energy substitution, etc. ; Coal imports affect risks.