At the beginning of the Year of the Ox, most investors re-examine the funds in their hands, hoping to lay out the investment in the new year through some portfolio adjustments. In the face of the "good" and "bad" funds in mind, whether to abandon or stay is a question hanging in the minds of investors. Through some investment principles and examples, the author guides investors to reasonably increase or decrease their holdings of funds. For the basic people, it is more important to understand the investment style of the fund and choose the appropriate way to enter the market. How to deal with "good" funds? Investors often think that money-making funds are good funds, but they are not. We evaluate whether a fund is a good investment product, not whether it is profitable in the short term, because it may be the luck of the fund manager in the short term; However, it depends on its core competitiveness to maintain a relatively leading position for a long time, which involves internal and external factors such as product design, fund managers' ability to choose stocks or bonds, fund companies' investment and research strength, management, company system culture and so on. Paying attention to the latter can often lead to long-term and stable returns, while paying attention to the former may lead us to intervene in the hottest time and sell in the lowest time. So, how do investors face the funds that they think are better? We believe that two practical problems need to be solved. The first is whether your evaluation criteria are fair. Secondly, under what circumstances should we increase or decrease our holdings? Looking for the driving force of the fund's long-term performance, we observe that there are two main factors affecting the fund's long-term performance-product design factors and the fund manager's own investment management ability. Take stock funds as an example. First of all, the product design makes the fund manager only implement the investment plan according to the established investment policy. Fund managers are like "dancing in chains". The reason of product design may restrict the management ability of fund managers themselves. In other words, the factors of product design basically determine the investment style of products, and the personal brand of fund managers is not obvious. This kind of fund is particularly prominent in industry funds and index funds. There are no standard industry funds in China, but there are some funds with high industry concentration, or funds that specialize in investing in one kind of industry, such as the growth, cycle and stability of TEDA ABN amro. Wanjia public utilities; Morgan Stanley China's new basic industries, etc. They often behave differently in a specific market environment. Secondly, most domestic funds give fund managers more freedom in product design, which is mainly reflected in the choice of industries and individual stocks. The long-term performance of the fund also represents the ability of fund managers to select stocks and industries. In addition, Morningstar will also consider the fund manager's implementation of the strategy when evaluating the fund manager's personal ability. If the investment is compared to a sports event, the factors that can keep the fund's performance stable for a long time must be related to the fund's investment strategy, investment and research process and the execution of the fund manager, and the cost will also have a certain impact. Investors should try to find fund managers who have clear investment ideas and dare to adhere to their own investment principles, rather than those who are easily disturbed by the outside world and lack confidence in their investment ideas. Case analysis: Take the fund with relatively resilient performance in 2008 as an example, the fund with more non-cyclical industries is recognized by most investors. Among stock funds, such as TEDA ABN Amro Growth, Guo Futianyi Value and Huaxia Market Selection, the performance level of these three funds has been in the top third of similar funds for a long time, and they are also high-quality funds in the eyes of investors. Although its investment strategies are different, all roads lead to the same goal, and its stable investment style has made the fund's long-distance running performance. The growth of TEDA ABN Amro is similar to that of an industry fund, and its anti-falling performance in 2008 is closely related to product design. Its 75% stock position limit and the investment strategy of technology stocks plus pharmaceutical stocks make the fund more resilient in the bear market and more moderate in the bull market. Compared with the other two funds, the fund manager of this fund has relatively large restrictions on industry selection, mainly reflected in the choice of individual stocks, and historical performance also shows that the fund manager has good stock selection ability. Knowing the investment style of the fund, we can easily see the main reasons for the relatively backward performance of the fund since the beginning of 2009. Non-cyclical industries, which were relatively resilient in 2008, have experienced stagflation this year. At the same time, the low stock position also makes it difficult for the fund to share the stock market rise like other funds, and the fund's performance increase is relatively backward in the short term. In 2009, the growth of TEDA ABN Amro is not more flexible than the position changes of the latter two, but its defensive nature can still be reflected, and it belongs to the investment variety of "attacking when entering, defending when retreating". The stable investment style of the fund plays different roles in different optimal fund portfolios, and the attitude of the holders will be slightly different. Investors who don't like taking too much risks can continue to hold the fund without worrying about short-term market fluctuations; Active investors can appropriately reduce the investment ratio of the fund, or adjust it from the original core configuration to satellite configuration, but only if you have more suitable investment varieties in mind. The typical characteristics of rich countries' tianyi value are low cost and tend to consume stocks. Fund managers play an important role in portfolio construction, with stable investment style and long holding time. Similar to TEDA ABN Growth Amro, the fund's share turnover rate is low, and fund managers tend to be defensive industries. In the short term, the performance may be tepid, but in the long term, it still shows the characteristics of low volatility and steady return. The increase in performance since the beginning of the year is also relatively backward, which is mainly related to the investment style of fund managers. We believe that this kind of fund can usually be used as the core variety of stable investors, and this investment strategy can still be adopted in 2009. Similarly, for radical investors, if they hold this variety in their hands, they can keep the fund allocation unchanged without choosing a more trustworthy active fund. China's market selection is the most active type of investment style among the three, which is not only reflected in the wide range of fund positions, but also in the fund manager's stock selection strategy and related to the fund size. Too large a scale may make the investment strategy of the fund not be better implemented and supported. In the expectation of market shock in 2009, such funds with stable style and flexible strategy can use the weak efficiency of the market to create income beyond index funds. Therefore, this kind of fund is also concerned by the market, and it is also the main direction of investors' portfolio layout in 2009. However, this kind of fund has a great relationship with the fund manager's stock selection ability and industry allocation ability. Therefore, we need to pay attention to fund managers with deep qualifications and fine stock selection. Active investors are suitable to take this kind of fund as the core variety in 2009, and hand over the work of stock selection and industry selection to fund managers. Investors who intend to hold for a long time can maintain the core allocation of such funds at this stage, and it is appropriate to adopt regular fixed investment in order to achieve the purpose of gradually increasing their holdings. Reasonable reasons for increasing or decreasing holdings Investors should actively change the allocation of funds through increasing or decreasing holdings based on personal investment criteria, including personal risk preference, investment philosophy, market expectation and property constraints. The following points should be paid attention to when adjusting: If investors need to adjust the asset allocation of stocks or bonds due to changes in investment period or market expectations, they may wish to achieve the investment purpose by adjusting the proportion of stock funds or bond funds. Pay attention to skills when adjusting and reduce unnecessary costs. If the adjustment is not urgent, investors can achieve the purpose of adjustment by allocating new funds in the future. If you buy more asset classes that need to be increased with new funds, and at the same time reduce or not buy those asset classes that need to be reduced in proportion, you can avoid the related costs of directly selling asset classes that need to be reduced in proportion to buy asset classes that need to be increased; Even if investors have no plans to increase the fund for the time being, they can concentrate the fund dividends held for a period of time and invest them in the asset categories that need to be increased, instead of simply reinvesting them in the original fund varieties. The fundamentals of the fund have changed. Changes in the fundamentals of funds, such as changes in fund managers and investment styles, are also reasonable reasons for investors to choose to reduce their holdings or redeem them. If you buy a small-cap value fund in order to obtain a higher yield of small-cap value stocks. However, fund managers may be troubled by buying large-cap growth stocks. Because large-cap growth stocks have replaced small-cap value stocks, the portfolio is unbalanced. You can restore the investment style of the original portfolio by selling the fund. Rebalancing Even if your investment goal remains the same and your asset allocation plan has not changed, sometimes you need to adjust your portfolio slightly to stick to the original intention of investment. For example, if the overall performance of your stock fund is poor in a certain year, you need to sell the underperforming fund to rebalance. For another example, at the beginning, you set the proportion of stock assets in the portfolio as 70%, but over the past year, the stock funds in the portfolio have performed bravely, making the proportion of stock assets in the whole portfolio rise rapidly to 85%, which is far from the asset allocation target. At this time, you also need to rebalance, or appropriately convert some stock funds into other varieties with lower stock assets, or invest in funds with lower risk-return characteristics when increasing the investment amount. The performance did not meet expectations. Sometimes the fund performs unexpectedly well, so we should also consider selling it and putting it in the bag.