The more you fall, the more you buy, and the funds flow into the Hong Kong stock ETF.
Since the beginning of this year, Hong Kong stocks have generally shown a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 29. 1 1% and the Hang Seng Science and Technology Index falling by 43.46%. Many ETFs, which only track the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Stock Index, also experienced a decline in the growth rate of the net value of reinstatement units during the year, but their fund shares kept rising, showing a trend of "falling more and buying more" as a whole.
Specifically, the net value of many ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Index fell by about 20% during the year, but the overall share of the fund continued to grow. For example, the net value of Huaxia Hang Seng ETF decreased by more than 20% during the year, and its share increased by 565,438+76 million, with a share change rate of 53.78%, with a net inflow of nearly 6 billion yuan during the year.
There are also many ETFs that track the Hang Seng Technology Stock Index, and their net value has decreased by about 37% in one year, while the fund share has more than tripled. For example, the net value of Huaxia Hang Seng ETF decreased by 37.92% during the year, and its share increased by 65.438+06.903 billion shares, with a share change rate of 205.79%. The net capital inflow during the year exceeded 9.3 billion yuan. The relatively small-scale Boss Hang Seng Technology ETF and Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF have a change rate of 273. 14% and 246.04% respectively, with a net inflow of 550 million yuan and 926 million yuan respectively.
It is particularly noteworthy that the pharmaceutical sector of Hong Kong stocks has been in a downturn this year, but the share of related ETFs has increased. For example, the net value of Bosera Hang Seng Medical ETF decreased by 32.82% during the year, and its share increased by 9.302 billion shares, with a share change rate of 739.53%. The net capital inflow during the year exceeded 4.8 billion yuan.
Hong kong stock waiting catalyst
Regarding the recent overall sluggish performance of the Hong Kong stock market, many fund managers said that the market is closely related to fluctuations in overseas markets, and it is necessary to pay attention to related catalyst events in the future. At the current level, the risk of rising is greater than the risk of falling.
Xing Cheng, manager of the mixed fund of Hang Seng Qianhai Hong Kong Stock Connect, said that the recent adjustment of Hong Kong stocks was large, mainly due to the concern of raising interest rates and the disturbance of overseas market performance. The strong non-agricultural sector in the United States exceeded market expectations, increasing the probability of the Fed raising interest rates sharply again. The overall investment preference of Hong Kong stocks has converged and risk aversion has increased. Before the marginal improvement of relevant factors, it is expected that the Hong Kong stock market may be in a state of continuous consolidation in the short term.
He said that the next important observation point or whether the attitude of the Federal Reserve will turn to the margin after raising interest rates in the future will affect the flow of overseas funds in the fourth quarter, thus affecting the pricing of the Hong Kong market.
Ran, ETF fund manager of Dacheng Hang Seng Technology, said recently that since September 19, the Hang Seng Technology Index has maintained a downward trend, during which the index hit a new low since 2020. Correspondingly, the Nasdaq index and the A-share Growth Enterprise Market index also fell to some extent. He believes that the current level of upside is greater than downside risk, and investors are advised to pay attention to potential catalysts.
Guohai Franklin Fund believes that Hong Kong stocks generally showed a downward trend in the third quarter due to the situation in Ukraine and the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike. At present, the valuation is at a relatively low level in history and the market is quite attractive. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, due to the decline in commodity prices, the inflationary pressure in the United States will be weakened compared with the previous quarter. Measures to stabilize domestic growth will be gradually implemented, and real estate sales are expected to increase month by month. Considering the long downstream industrial chain of the real estate industry, the pulling effect on the economy is more obvious; And the epidemic situation has been well controlled, and consumption will gradually return to normal; In view of the current active monetary and fiscal policies, the macro economy is likely to stabilize and rebound. Guohai Franklin Fund believes that the company's performance is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, the overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks is low, and there are good opportunities in the sectors of finance, real estate, automobile, Internet, medicine and real estate post-cycle, and the opportunities of Hong Kong stocks outweigh the risks.
Haitong Securities Strategy Team believes that Hong Kong stocks need to wait for A shares and US stocks to stabilize when they bottom out. For A-shares, domestic economic fundamentals are the focus, and real estate is one of the important factors. With the implementation of the policy of ensuring property security and steady growth, it is expected to catalyze the A-share market to start a new round of rise again, thus forming a positive pulling effect on Hong Kong stocks.
However, the team also pointed out that it is not clear when US stocks will bottom out. NBER indicators show that the US economy entered a technical recession in July this year. According to historical laws, US stocks bottomed out in the middle and late period of the US economic recession, so it is expected that US stocks will bottom out in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year, which means that US stocks may still have a negative impact on Hong Kong stocks. As it is difficult for US stocks to bottom out, Hong Kong stocks may have to wait for the bottom to stabilize, but considering that Hong Kong stocks are already in the bottom area, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about Hong Kong stocks.
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