A small town in Guojiatuo, Jiangbei District, Chongqing, which was once famous for its state-owned Wangjiang Machinery Factory, is now full of "old and small". Most of the buildings here were built in the 195s and 196s. (Oriental IC/ map)
(This article was first published in Southern Weekend on July 4, 219)
The old reform and shed reform are equivalent to one paying out and the other paying back.
the renovation of old residential areas has risen to the national level, because it is not only a livelihood project, but also a very effective measure to stabilize investment, and it can also stimulate residents' consumption.
If the renovation of old residential areas is to be promoted on a large scale, housing enterprises need to find a sustainable profit model in the market, otherwise it will only be a hard nut to crack.
On June 19th, 219, the executive meeting of the State Council made it clear that the renovation of old urban residential areas (hereinafter referred to as "old renovation") should be accelerated.
The object of old renovation refers to the residential quarters built before 2, with backward public facilities, affecting the basic life of residents and strong residents' willingness to renovate.
According to the requirements of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the old renovation project focuses on the renovation and construction of supporting facilities such as water, electricity and optical fiber in the residential area. If possible, elevators can be installed according to local conditions, parking facilities, service facilities for the aged and caring for children, barrier-free facilities, and energy-saving renovation can be implemented.
this is a "large quantity and wide range" project. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, at present, there are 17, old urban residential areas in need of renovation all over the country, involving hundreds of millions of residents.
once the news was released, it first aroused people's imagination of the property market, and the old reform was regarded as a shed reform that was dying in the relay. After 215, the shed was changed to monetized resettlement, and 4 trillion yuan was released in three years, which not only removed the inventory of third-and fourth-tier cities, but also pushed up local housing prices.
Now, the old reform is born, what changes will it bring?
Yongqingfang, a historical and cultural block in Xiguan, Liwan District, Guangzhou, has been transformed into the "most beautiful street" integrating residence and tourism by slightly transforming the old city. (Oriental IC/ map)
For residents living in old residential areas, old renovation and shed renovation may be an alternative choice.
according to the definition standards in the relevant documents of the Ministry of housing and urban-rural development and the Ministry of finance, shanty towns originally refer to areas with more simple structures, higher building density, longer service life, incomplete use functions and poor infrastructure. Since 212, concepts such as "village in city" and comprehensive renovation of old houses have also been included in the scope of shanty towns.
The document also makes it clear that shanty towns (residential houses) that have been included in or will be included in the urban shantytown renovation plan, as well as areas and villages in the city that are dominated by residents' self-built houses, do not belong to old communities.
According to Li Yujia, a senior researcher at Shenzhen Real Estate Research Center, there are many old residential areas in China. 42% of the houses in cities and towns were built before 2, 16% before 199, and 21% of the houses in cities and towns have 2-3 floors, and 16% of the houses in cities and towns do not have kitchen and bathroom at the same time.
these old communities are collectively called "old and small" by the market. Poor lighting design, small area, difficulty in parking, problems in building structure and lack of community commercial facilities and greening are all common problems in these communities.
A senior real estate agent in Shenzhen told the Southern Weekend reporter that most of the houses built in Shenzhen in the 198s and 199s were made of sea sand, because of the high salt content and impurities, and the poor building quality, these old communities are now devastated.
At the end of 217, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development launched pilot projects for the renovation of old urban communities in 15 cities including Guangzhou and Xiamen. According to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, as of December 218, 16 old residential areas have been renovated in pilot cities, benefiting 59, residents.
However, an old renovation practitioner in Guangzhou admitted to Southern Weekend reporter that there are many old residential areas to be renovated in the city, but relatively few have been or are being renovated. One reason for the slow progress is that all households need to pass, and most of the old residential areas are houses built by units without property management, so it is more difficult to "gather everyone's consent" first.
Another important reason is that residents need to pay for renovation, and many people are unwilling. Despite a large part of the financial subsidies, for example, according to the data of Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department, five pilot communities have arranged financial funds of 28 million yuan, with an average of 4 million yuan for each community.
Unlike the old one, the shed reform belongs to large-scale demolition and large-scale construction, and residents whose houses have been demolished can get physical resettlement or monetary compensation. Especially after 215, monetary resettlement has become the mainstream of shed reform, and about 4 trillion yuan has flowed into the hands of shantytown residents.
Old renovation and shed renovation are equivalent to one paying out and the other paying back. "In Shenzhen, the shed reform work for giving money is progressing slowly, not to mention paying for the renovation of old communities." The above-mentioned Shenzhen real estate agent said.
The senior management of a real estate asset management company in Shenzhen also told Southern Weekend reporter that the renovation of old residential areas in Shenzhen may be different from the expectations of many residents. Previously, many owners who bought old residential areas in Shenzhen were actually waiting for a new round of shed renovation plan, hoping to "get rich overnight" after receiving the demolition money.
It can be seen that the impact of the old reform and shed reform on the property market is also very different.
The shed reform releases money, which constantly creates and pushes up people's demand for real estate, while the transformation of old residential quarters improves the living conditions of residential quarters, but delays or shakes residents' demand for buying new houses.
At the same time, with the transformation of old residential areas becoming a new trend, the expectation of buying houses, such as "buying old residential areas and demolishing sheds", will be gradually reversed, which can restrain the speculation in the second-hand housing market to a certain extent.
On June 13th, 219, at the 11th Lujiazui Forum, Guo Shuqing, President of Chinese China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that the current real estate is over-financialized, and the debt ratio of residents accounts for a considerable proportion, even half of the investment is invested in the real estate market. History has proved that if you rely too much on real estate, you will eventually pay the price.
although the old reform is different from the shed reform, it is not unrelated to the shed reform when it is launched at this time.
with the completion of the national task of "destocking" and the determination of the central government to curb the excessive rise of housing prices, on April 15, 219, the Ministry of Finance clearly informed that the shed reform plan for 219 was greatly reduced from the expected 4.5 million sets to 2.85 million sets, a decrease of 5.86% compared with 218. At the same time, monetary resettlement has been tightened, and physical resettlement has returned to the mainstream.
according to the calculation of guojin securities research institute, if the monetized resettlement ratio of shed reform is maintained at 35% in 219, it is expected that the growth rate of commercial housing sales will be reduced by 12.82%, and the direct pull on real estate investment will be -.83%.
at the same time, the growth rate of investment in China has declined. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May 219, the national fixed assets investment was 21,755.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and the growth rate dropped by .5 percentage points from January to April.
and the old reform can just make up for the reduced capital investment due to the withdrawal of shed reform. According to the estimation of the State Council Counselor Chou Baoxing, the total investment in the old residential areas that need comprehensive renovation in China can reach 4 trillion yuan. If the renovation period is 5 years, the annual new investment can be about 8 billion yuan. The old reform of 4 trillion is equivalent to the amount of funds released by the shed reform in the past.
The research report released by Founder Securities on June 22nd also made a fund statistic. According to the renovation plans published by some provinces and cities, the average cost is 7 yuan per square meter. Based on this calculation, the pure construction cost of the old reconstruction project will reach 2.8 trillion yuan.
According to the incomplete statistics of Southern Weekend reporters, at present, nine provinces and cities in China have announced the targets and detailed plans for the old reform. They are Anhui, Hebei, Xiangyang, Jinan, Nanjing, Panzhihua, Xi 'an, Guangzhou and Xinxiang.
Take Guangzhou as an example, the last two years can be called the year of old reform. According to the Annual Plan for Urban Renewal in Guangzhou in 218, there will be 587 micro-renovation projects of old residential areas in Guangzhou in 218, with a planned investment of 1.471 billion yuan. According to the "Guangzhou Key Project Construction Plan for 219", among the 51 key projects, the micro-renovation of old residential areas accounted for 9, with a total planned investment of 1.25 billion yuan.
On July 1, 219, Yan Huang, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said at the routine briefing of the State Council policy that the renovation of old residential areas has risen to the national level, because it is not only a livelihood project, but also a very effective measure to stabilize investment, and at the same time, it can stimulate residents' consumption and improve their indoor facilities. "This is a work with multiple objectives."
Earlier, Chou Baoxing also wrote that the comprehensive renovation of old urban residential areas can eliminate the obstacles to expanding residents' consumption by filling the shortage of service facilities such as kindergartens and small supermarkets, and on the other hand, it can also open up new consumption patterns such as silver hair consumption, children's consumption, green development and energy conservation and emission reduction, which can continuously and effectively create new kinetic energy for the national economy.
compared with shed reform, the renovation project of old residential areas is more efficient. A number of housing enterprises told Southern Weekend that the average transformation period of a shed reform project is five years, and owners and housing enterprises are often deadlocked because of the dispute over demolition compensation. The old reform can generally be completed within half a year, and the marginal benefits are obvious. By filling in the "short board" of service facilities, residents' consumption can be effectively stimulated and expanded.
In line with the tide of old reform, a Guangzhou real estate agent told Southern Weekend reporter that many new apartments built after 2 under his company are also offering preferential activities such as renovation of landscape balcony railings, elevator maintenance, air conditioning louver reinforcement and so on to attract owners to participate at their own expense.
17, old residential areas need renovation, with a total investment of 4 trillion yuan. Where will the money come from?
Yan Huang, vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said at the above briefing that the project will be carried out in a coordinated manner with the owner as the main body, the community as the leading factor, the government as the leading factor and the support of all parties, and the renovation funds will be raised through various channels, such as "some residents, some social support and some financial subsidies".
at present, local finance is the main source of funds for the old reform.
The Three-year Action Plan for Renovation of Old Residential Quarters (218-22) published by Hebei Province on September 23, 218 shows that the total tasks of the three-year renovation of residential quarters are 5,739, and the renovation funds needed for the renovation are 12.96 billion yuan. Among them, the society can raise about 1.17 billion yuan; Municipal franchise units can raise about 65 million yuan; The original property unit of the community can raise about 52 million yuan; Individual residents can raise about 56 million yuan. The remaining 11.23 billion yuan was raised by the municipal and county governments.
according to 21st century business herald, an old residential district in a county in the east of Hebei province has carried out an energy-saving renovation project, including insulating layer on the external wall, replacing the previous steel windows with aluminum alloy windows, at a cost of 4, yuan per household, while the local residents said that "it is said that the financial funds are subsidized by half".
An owner from Angong Community in Tianfu New District of Chengdu told Southern Weekend reporter that at the beginning of 219, five 6-storey houses in his community completed the installation of elevators, and the capital contribution arrangement was based on 3, yuan on the second floor, with each floor increasing by 2, yuan. According to the community industry Committee, most of the expenses have been subsidized by the government.
Lin Jiaxing, deputy general manager of Guangzhou World Bank, told Southern Weekend reporter that the renovation of old residential areas in Guangzhou is mostly social welfare behavior, and the renovation funds mainly come from the special financial guarantee funds of the city and district, and the urban level is arranged according to the ratio of 8: 2. Guangzhou World Bank has been involved in a number of large-scale old renovation projects in Guangzhou, including TIT Textile Industrial Park, Liwan Guanggang and Guangzhou Ship Area, Tianhe Guangnitrogen Area, etc., in the form of consultants for housing enterprises.
"There are still about 5 billion housing maintenance funds in China, which should be actively played." Chou Baoxing wrote an article.
However, Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the media that once the renovation of old residential areas is implemented on a large scale, the government's financial resources are limited and it is unrealistic to rely solely on subsidies.
The rise of shed reform is due to the creation of PSL by the central bank in 214. In the form of PSL, the central bank gives it to policy banks such as CDB, and then they give special loans to local governments, thus giving monetary subsidies to shantytown residents. After the local governments demolish and sell land, they repay bank loans, and the banks repay the central bank, forming a closed loop of capital flow.
at the the State Council executive meeting, it was first mentioned to increase financial support for the old reform, and it was made clear that in 219, central subsidy funds will be arranged for the renovation of old urban communities, and financial institutions and localities will be encouraged to actively explore.
"Financing must be sustainable." Yan Huang said, one premise is that we can't just invest but fail to turn it around, and the other is risk prevention to prevent the increase of local debts. Under these two premises, how to introduce specialized and market-oriented companies to operate can be explored.
Lin Jiaxing, deputy general manager of Guangzhou World Bank, stressed that the government is promoting more social capital to participate in renovation projects with certain returns and corporate brand influence, and exploring the mechanism of participation of residents, employers and the government. "Yongqingfang in Guangzhou is a good sample".
in 216, Vanke won the bid for the old renovation project of Yongqingfang in the middle section of Enning Road in Guangzhou. This area is one of the jurisdictions where dilapidated houses are concentrated in Guangzhou, with both old residential buildings and buildings with unique history and culture. On the basis of protecting local characteristic buildings, Vanke participated in the planning and operation of the whole district. Besides renovating the old district, it also turned the district into a cultural and creative complex project combining youth apartments, joint offices and cultural and creative blocks.
Chen Ho Bridge, executive director of Colliers International South China Consulting Service Department and expert of Guangdong Sanjiu Reconstruction Association, also approved this project. "For example, suppose that the residents of the old residential area rent out 3 yuan/square meter, Vanke uses the unit price of 5 yuan to transform, decorate and contract it, and gives it to its own long-term rental apartment brand, Boyu, to rent it out in 8 yuan, which is a model." He told the Southern Weekend reporter.
however, the profit problem remains to be solved. Chen Ho Bridge said that if the renovation of old residential areas is to be promoted on a large scale, housing enterprises need to find a sustainable profit model in the market, otherwise it will only be a "hard bone".
Take Yongqingfang as an example. Vanke only has the right to operate for 15 years. After the expiration, whether to return the right to operate to the government or continue to explore new cooperation modes has not yet been determined. In an interview with the media, the person in charge of the project once bluntly said that the total investment of Yongqingfang renovation plan is about 1 million yuan, and the construction cost recovery period is as long as 12 and a half years. The time to really make a profit is less than 3 years.
in Shenzhen, this "Vanke model" has also hit a wall. According to a recent report by Interface News, an insider close to Vanke's "Wancun Plan" revealed that Vanke is negotiating with the landlord who has signed a contract for the renovation of the village in Shenzhen to compensate for the breach of contract and voluntarily give up some of the contracted houses.
"Wancun Plan" is Vanke's strategic layout for the micro-renovation project of villages in Shenzhen. Since 217, Vanke has entered hundreds of villages in Shenzhen, rented and renovated these old communities, and transformed them into its long-term rental apartment brand "Boyu", with an average lease term of 1.