concept
The reasons that affect the exchange rate trend are very complicated. Even Warren Buffett misread the trend of 20 12 dollar.
Foreign exchange, seemingly far from the general public, is closely related to everyone in the world. Foreign exchange trading is also an important form of investment or financial management for many people. Let's analyze what foreign exchange has to do with you.
The concept of foreign exchange has a double meaning, that is, there are dynamic and static points.
The static concept of foreign exchange is divided into narrow foreign exchange concept and broad foreign exchange concept.
In a narrow sense, foreign exchange refers to various means of payment expressed in foreign currency, which are generally accepted by all countries and can be used for international settlement of creditor's rights and debts. It must have three characteristics: affordability (assets that must be expressed in foreign currency), availability (claims that can be compensated abroad) and convertibility (foreign currency assets that can be freely converted into other means of payment).
Foreign exchange in a broad sense refers to all assets owned by a country in foreign currency. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) defines this as: "Foreign exchange is the creditor's rights held by monetary management authorities (central bank, monetary management institutions, foreign exchange stabilization fund and the Ministry of Finance) in the form of bank deposits, treasury bonds and long-term and short-term government securities. It can be used when there is a deficit in the balance of payments. "
Classical technical analysis includes Dow theory, trend line and candle line. Of course, no method can be successful, and different investors can have different explanations for the same method. The key is to cultivate your own market outlook model.
For friends who have just started investing in foreign exchange, you can regard the trend as your good friend. Some moving averages are often added to various trend charts, which can give you a general idea of the direction. Taking advantage of the trend is a more rational way to enter the market.
So what are the common foreign exchange investment platforms? Common foreign exchange books include Japanese candle chart curve analysis, introduction to foreign exchange speculation, K-line chart analysis guide and other technical analysis books.
Transaction time editing
Trading hours in major markets (Beijing time):
Sydney: 06: 00- 15: 00
Tokyo: 08: 00- 15: 30
Hong Kong: 09: 00- 16: 00
Frankfurt: 15: 00-23: 00
London: 15: 30-23: 30 (winter time 16: 30-00: 30)
New york: 20: 20-03: 00 (winter time 2 1: 20-04: 00) [1]
Weekend trading
The foreign exchange market will never be strictly closed, but in fact all major banks and traders are closed on weekends. Weekend liquidity is too small to provide traders with many trading opportunities. When some fundamental news is released over the weekend, there may be some price changes, but the trend changes of currency pairs can be basically ignored, and the trading volume is very small, which leads to trading difficulties and large spreads. Therefore, FXCM's trading platform will be closed at 5 pm EST on Friday and reopened at 5 pm EST on Sunday. [2]
China's 1997 revised Regulations on Foreign Exchange Management stipulates: "Foreign exchange refers to the following means of payment and assets that can be used for international settlement: a foreign currency, including coins and banknotes; Foreign currency payment vouchers, including bills, bank deposit vouchers and postal savings vouchers. ; Foreign currency securities, including government bonds, government bonds, corporate bonds, stocks, coupons, etc. ; Special drawing rights and European currency units; 5. Other foreign exchange assets. "
The dynamic concept of foreign exchange refers to the flow of money between countries and a specialized commercial activity of exchanging one country's currency for another to pay off international creditor's rights and debts. It is the abbreviation of foreign exchange.
Overview of foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market is usually represented by "FX" or "FOREX" and is the largest financial market in the world. The foreign exchange market is a "foreign exchange spot trading" market (also known as spot trading market), in which both parties trade through telephone and electronic trading system, rather than in a specific exchange. The time difference closely connects the business hours of foreign exchange exchanges around the country, making the transaction uninterrupted. The characteristics of the foreign exchange market provide investors with opportunities to diversify their investments, so as to reduce the overall investment risk.
24-hour transaction
Foreign exchange trading is a real 24-hour all-day trading market. Every day, the New Zealand stock market opens first, followed by Sydney, Tokyo, London and new york. Investors can participate in trading at any time from Monday morning to Saturday morning; Even if the market fluctuates due to economic, political and social events, the investment risk caused by the price difference between closing and opening may be relatively reduced.
High market transparency
Investors in foreign exchange trading are distributed all over the world, and the market is difficult to be manipulated. In addition, there are many factors that affect the foreign exchange market, including interest rates set by the local national central bank, stock market, economic environment and data, policy decisions, various political factors and even major events, which are beyond the control of a single investor or group.
High liquidity of funds
The foreign exchange market is one of the largest financial markets in the world economy. Market participants include banks, commercial institutions, central banks, investment banks, hedge funds, governments, currency issuers, note-issuing banks, multinational organizations and retail investors. Therefore, the liquidity of the foreign exchange market is extremely high, and investors do not have to bear the investment risks caused by the lack of trading opportunities.
stimulation
This is the theme of foreign exchange market in 2005. If a country's interest rate is relatively higher than other countries, it will stimulate the inflow of foreign funds, thus improving the capital account and raising the exchange rate of its own currency. The economic development of Europe, Japan and other economies is not as strong as that of the United States, and global funds flock to the medium and long-term national debt of the United States. As a result, foreign capital keeps buying dollars and continues to support the dollar exchange rate.
According to the original theory, the difference of inflation at home and abroad is the dominant factor to determine the long-term trend of exchange rate, and the basis for judgment is called purchasing power parity. But in fact, historical data show that there is no direct negative correlation between the exchange rates of the two countries and their inflation rates. On the contrary, the central bank has a stronger decisive factor. At present, the inflation rate in the United States is 3.8%, which is higher than that in the European Union (2.3%) and Japan (0.5%). However, the Fed is worried about the adverse effects of inflation and continues to raise interest rates, which leads to the spread advantage of the US dollar, which also shows that interest rates are the most powerful driving force in the foreign exchange market at present. In terms of balance of payments, the trade deficit of the previous year became the nightmare of the US dollar. The market generally believes that the huge deficit in the current account of the United States is difficult to make up, and it is bound to need the depreciation of the dollar to alleviate it, so there was a huge dollar sell-off at that time. However, the data of American capital inflow in 20 13 years can offset the trade account deficit, and the influence of American balance of payments problem is weakened.
Economic data
These two factors dominate the short-term market behavior. Economic data is very complex and can affect the market in a short time. The intervention of the central bank is mainly because the central bank, as a powerful financial force, buys or throws a lot of money in a short period of time, which has an impact on the market.
After a preliminary understanding of some fundamental elements, I think it is safer to judge the market by fundamentals.
Introduction to foreign exchange investment
Introduction to foreign exchange investment
There are risks. Often, sometimes the news has affected the market in rumors and returned to the starting point after confirmation. For investors whose information is relatively difficult to obtain, it is obviously quite difficult to profit from old news. Technical analysis is quite subjective, but it contains the market's reflection on various influencing factors, especially the psychological expectation of the whole market, which cannot be obtained by fundamentals.