Now, in addition to bond funds, other funds suggest temporarily avoiding them.
Funds are mainly stock funds, which means that investors of investment funds should pay close attention to the trend of the stock market. If the stock market still can't reverse the bear market trend and continues to fluctuate downward, then as a fund investor, it should also redeem the fund on rallies before and after the end of the market rebound, but there is a difference between the fund and the stock. Stocks want to sell more freely, but funds are more complicated and care more about long-term holding. Therefore, the rational investment mentality of fund investors is the same as that of stocks. If the market chooses which fund in a bear market, it becomes a secondary issue, because funds are also losing money, so the timing of intervention and withdrawal has become something that fund investors must learn.
1500 is not the bottom until the size problem is solved.
Now is a bear market, not suitable for the long term. The long-term bear market is the bottom of continuous innovation, so the risk of oversold rebound at most is small.
The G-7 announced that "G-7 will take decisive action to stabilize financial markets and restore credit flow by all means to support global economic growth. (After that, Europe announced the adoption of 2 trillion bailout funds, so please pay attention! ! Now that the 850 billion funds passed by the United States have become empty money tickets, it is difficult to guarantee that the two trillion are different. The United States has considered forcing China to pay for the rescue. This is the case. No matter how big the data of the rescue fund is, it is also an oral welfare that cannot be fulfilled. Please be careful. The continuous decline of the global stock market after a day of skyrocketing has shown that the real risk is huge. )
First of all, saving the market requires money, and this basic thing, as the richest country in the world, the United States has an embarrassing thing. When several trillion foreign debts were still outstanding, the economy went wrong again (the debt involved in the subprime mortgage crisis exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, and the United States was the only country except China that could survive the economic crisis by relying on strong domestic demand, but this time it was internal troubles rather than foreign invasion, so it was different from the last Southeast Asian economic crisis. If this crisis expands into a global financial crisis under the tight rescue funds of the United States, it can be said without hesitation that the United States may experience more than five years of economic recession, but now China will certainly not be immune to global economic integration. Now the impact is only the beginning, and China will expand domestic demand.
The US Department of Labor released the latest data, which declined in September, indicating that there is a big problem in the real economy. At present, it is estimated that there is still room for 40% decline in house prices in the United States, and the poor consumer investment situation may drag down the subprime mortgage situation in the banking industry and offset the US$ 850 billion bailout fund. Moreover, although Buffett has gradually built positions, he also stressed that he is not sure where the bottom of the global bear market is, one year or two. Therefore, people with high security requirements for trend investors still have to avoid risks and wait and see with money.
CBRC Liu said that the average non-performing loan ratio of China 19 banks has exceeded 9%, and the risk accumulation is obvious, while the total scale of mortgage loans is less than last year's 1/3, indicating that the tight attitude has been implemented. Although the central government has never expressed its position on the housing market rescue policy, according to the results of online voting, more than 80% people think that the housing market should not be rescued because the housing price bubble is still at a high level, which is not a response to real demand. This is a masterpiece left by the real estate speculators. So there is still great uncertainty in the real estate industry. Once the central government says it does not support saving the housing market, real estate stocks will bear the brunt and may face another collapse. Investors should pay attention to the potential risks.
Customers borrow money from securities companies to buy securities, which is called financing transaction. Customers borrow securities from securities companies and sell them, which is called short selling. The news restricted the capital entering the market from the beginning. It will take a long time (maybe more than three years) to get on the right track, and the scale may have a great impact on the market. Moreover, according to foreign markets, the development of short selling will help the ups and downs, but it will not change the general trend. If the news is positive in a bull market because it will amplify the upward trend, then the news is very bad in a bear market to some extent because the downward trend may also be amplified. This policy is a double-edged sword, which has the opposite effect under different trends. Because this system involves business mortgage, compulsory margin regulation, compulsory liquidation system, settlement of risk funds, credit rating system and so on. It must be noted that the investment risk brought by leveraged investment far exceeds the previous investment risk.
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Of course, as an institution that wants to ship goods, even if it is bad, institutions, stocks and the media will fool individual investors into thinking that the policy is substantial. Of course, they just want individual investors to think so. Their psychology is very clear. The policy may not do any good to the stock market for several years, or even it may be because the stock market has fallen more sharply in the bear market. In the final analysis, individual investment funds are more willing to take over with stamp duty policy.
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When the organization paints a bright future for retail investors, it lets retail investors go to the bottom. What is this doing?
TopView data shows that the stamp duty market has reduced its position by nearly 30 billion in recent trading days (not counting the size)! Retail funds have locked in more than 654.38+050 billion!
Why do institutions encourage retail investors to boldly bargain-hunting while being so optimistic about the market outlook? Before, a wave of boats were pulled to cooperate with a new favorable rumor (I have repeatedly mentioned to small and medium-sized investors that when the country really wants to make a policy, it is a sneak attack, not to let the society know in advance, which time is not the case? Recall it! In other words, rumors may be as good as the previous rumors, but it is impossible to say that all rumors are made by institutions to cooperate with the shipment, and there is only one result of rumors. In July and August, the good news was flying all over the sky. It has been two months. You may remember worrying about new things. When rumors are good, they may not be good. When the rumors are shattered and disappear, no one believes the good news, but the good news will still come out. It may be wise to stand on the opposite side of most crazy investors forever! There is no harm in keeping a vigilant heart when most people lose their reason and judgment crazily. A little more sensible fund managers are well aware that all the so-called interests in the world are dispensable, so the interests that do not affect the overall situation are resolutely reduced, but what they do is to make the interests that do not affect the overall situation look like substantial interests and give individual investors too much hope.
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It is only a matter of time before the problem of size is solved. It is only a matter of time before we break 1800 and underestimate 1500. The market was lured by many investors in June 13, and broke in June 14. Now, after being broken, the market has fluctuated slightly below the 5-day line for three trading days. Please pay attention to this action, which has been repeated more than five times before. If it is suppressed by the 5-day line for several consecutive trading days, once it is impossible to choose to break through the 5-day line-10, investors will fall again in the case of collapse of confidence, instead of boldly opening positions not far from the bottom, as many stock reviews have said. Only when the market breaks through in a short time and stands firm on the 5-day line 10 will it have a chance to see the suppression area of the 2300 high. If institutions continue to lighten their positions, I don't think they will continue to usher in the intermediate market. The big market is made by institutions, not by retail investors. Pay attention to the institutional actions in the market outlook!
In September, "Dafa" reduced its holdings by 65.438+0.47 billion shares, and "Xiaofei" lifted the ban by 65.438+0.58 billion yuan in September, but its shareholding was as high as 305 million shares, indicating that the unsold "Xiaofei" who had previously lifted the ban chose to flee in September. Comparing the stock market trend in recent months, we can clearly draw a rule: the market is good, the trend is stable, and the size is not running much; On the contrary, the reduction is less.
If the size problem that caused this bear market is really solved by time as suggested by Xinhua News Agency's comments, there is still hope in the 20 1 1 year after the peak of lifting the ban, and the main shipping market is bottomless. At the bottom, the large-scale opening of positions by institutions is not suggested by retail investors to be stable, and investors with high security requirements do not intervene. Holding money mainly leads to a wait-and-see attitude. The size problem that led to the plunge directly led to the imbalance of funds, and the empty side suppressed many parties for a long time. In this long-term trend, funds are occupied by the empty side, and the market naturally fluctuates for a long time. This is the real reason why stocks keep falling.
The stock market is complicated and simple. The complexity is that any factor may lead to changes in the stock market. The simple thing is that the long-term short-term trend of funds determines the long-term ups and downs of the market, but the stock market can't just fall and not rise, and it will definitely rebound on the way down, but the extent of the rebound should be judged according to the good news of the policy. If these intangible good news are still used to support the market, then every rebound is an opportunity to lighten up. After the size is not limited, the market can ease the financial pressure and bring a wave of intermediate rebound or even reversal. As long as the core problem leading to the plunge is not solved, investors will regard it as a rebound and lighten their positions on rallies. The accumulation of investors' confidence in continuous oversold makes bargain-hunting funds very cautious. Although bargain-hunting funds try to change this downward trend, the situation is not very optimistic. The current stock market is not as lacking in confidence and funds as the government said. Personally, I feel that both lack the shadow of size. This year is the lightest year, and the funds for lifting the ban are only 3 trillion (enough to eliminate the main force). Although the government will talk about politics when it comes to a fund, it seems that the real effect is not great. The organization's action of continuing to rebound shipments did not stop, so it had to choose the strategy of fighting and retreating to reduce losses. The government will offer so-called benefits to prevent the stock market from continuing to fall, but as long as it is not a substantive solution to the size of the non-issue, it is just some anodyne policies, then investors should not be too optimistic in the current market where the long-short balance of funds is broken, because the substantive problems have not been solved. Money will continue to be tight. When there is a rebound caused by policies, it is wise to reduce rallies. Don't believe that stock reviews don't consider the actual big market. Since the non-lifting funds in 2009 were nearly 7 trillion, the lifting funds in 20 10 were nearly 10 trillion, which has far exceeded the 3 trillion this year. Therefore, it is impossible to solve the pressure of funds before the core problem that led to this plunge is solved. Any marginal favorable policy will only bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Although the stock market is complex, it is actually very simple. The rule of the stock market is that if you sell more, you will buy down, and if you buy more, you will sell up. Most people understand this truth, but why are some people unwilling to face it when the funds have already been reflected? Don't believe that size also requires long-term investment. When the profit is as high as 400% or even as high as 1000% as soon as the listing is lifted, do you think the holders of the size will be safe or will continue to watch their profits shrink in a weak market (the size of the size is also an investor, and the profit first is also their idea, when long-term investors think that only retail investors with institutional education will do it) and the selling power in a long-term trend is overwhelming for some reason. Non-substantive policies bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Because the strongest support area of the market is 3300~3400 points, and the so-called policy iron bottom with the strongest stock evaluation and institutions is 2990 points, it has collapsed rapidly in the case of unbalanced funds. Therefore, in the short term, in the absence of new favorable policy support, the rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions. Only when the funds are in hand can we have the initiative and usher in the real bottom. The bottom line is that the main participants are not retail investors. When the main force is forced to reduce positions on a large scale under the pressure of the size, what small and medium-sized investors can do is to follow the trend, not to move against the trend. We should also control our positions when the institutions reduce their positions.