Since 25, employee pensions have been rising for 18 consecutive years. Now, in 223, social security funds have maintained a stable operation because many places have stated that they will continue to adjust retirees' pensions, and the economy and prices have risen. According to the provisions of the Social Security Law, the pension level of retirees should be raised in a timely manner according to the average wage increase and price increase of employees. Then it is a high probability that pensions will continue to be adjusted in 223. Then, if the pension is adjusted in 223, how much can the increase be achieved? This is a concern of retirees. Let's take a look at the pension increase in the past 18 years, including the per capita pension and the corresponding increase. Please see the following figure: Since the pension increase was adjusted according to a certain proportion of the average social wage from 25 to 27, we will not discuss it here. Since 28, the increase of pension has reached 1%, and it has continued to reach 215, and the per capita pension has also doubled during this period. Since 216, the increase of pension has entered an inflection point and is in a downward channel, showing a downward trend year by year. This year is indeed a bit special, because retirees from government agencies and institutions began to participate in the rise of pensions together with enterprise retirees. Specifically, it rose by 6.5% in 216, 5.5% in 217, 5% from 218 to 22, 4.5% in 221 and 4% in 222. Why is there such a change in the increase rate of pensions, and it is decreasing year by year? There are several main reasons: 1. After years of increase, pensions have reached a higher base, such as the per capita pension of 1,511 yuan and the per capita pension of 2,987 yuan. The former rose by 1%, which means that the per capita pension rose by 151 yuan, while the latter rose by 4%, and the per capita pension rose by 12 yuan. If it rises by 1%, the per capita increase is 298 yuan, which is too large. 2. China's GDP growth rate is also slowing down as a whole, and the double-digit growth in the past is also difficult to achieve. 3. The aging of the population is accelerating. The Health and Health Commission has indicated that it is expected that the total number of elderly people aged 6 and over will exceed 3 million during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, accounting for more than 2%, and they will enter a stage of moderate aging. Around 235, it entered the stage of severe aging. The acceleration of population aging will undoubtedly increase the payment pressure of social security funds. ? In this regard, we can also take a look at the explanation of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security that the increase in pensions dropped from 1% to 6.5% in 216: it comprehensively considered the new normal of China's economic development and the new situation of population aging. Pension adjustment should not only effectively protect the basic livelihood of retirees, but also not exceed the affordability of economic and social aspects. Based on this, if the pension rises in 223, how much can it increase? Judging from the upward trend and corresponding support, pensions are likely to increase by 3.5% in 223 for the following reasons: 1. Starting from 222, the next 1 years will usher in the largest retirement tide in history, and 223 will be the peak of this wave of retirement. The data shows that in 222, there was the first negative population growth in nearly 61 years, but the elderly population increased by 16.2 million, and the population aging was accelerating. 2. In 222, the GDP growth will reach 3%, and the per capita wage income will be 2,59 yuan, an increase of 4.9%. Compared with the GDP growth of 8.4% in 221, the per capita wage income increased by 9.6%, both of which declined. 3. In terms of price, the CPI rose by 2% in 222, and the performance was also moderate. To sum up, the signal of pension increase in 223 has been released, and it will continue to rise for the 19th consecutive year this year. Basically, there will be no big suspense. However, retirees are also more concerned about the increase of pensions. Judging from the increase over the years, the increase of pensions is also in a downward channel. In addition, the economic and price increases in the previous year were moderate, and the population aging accelerated. In 223, pensions are likely to increase by 3.5%, which is lower than last year. What do you think of this?