The characteristic of this kind of people is that they talk a lot about how to invest in funds. This may be a euphemistic response that these three star fund managers have to face the confusion of a large number of new entrants after the rapid growth of management scale.
After all, not all fund companies like to send high-profile apology letters and start a wave of crazy marketing.
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Zhang Kun's "brief outlook" on E Fund's SMEs suggested lowering expectations. In addition, most of the space is used to share his investment insights. I guess it's also a response to the controversy caused by my passive out of the circle.
The following is an excerpt from the original text:
In the past two years, the performance of the fund has been bright on the whole. The rate of return of the fund is fundamentally determined by the rate of return of the holding enterprise, which should be roughly equivalent to the ROE (return on net assets) level of the enterprise.
From a global perspective, companies that can maintain a high ROE for a long time are very rare and excellent. In recent years, the compound rate of return of public equity funds is much higher than the market average ROE level, and this trend is difficult to sustain for a long time.
Therefore, we should probably lower our expectations of the rate of return.
Any long-term effective method will fail in the short term.
If we invest in listed companies, it is difficult to make money if our confidence is based on the rising stock price, because the stock price will inevitably fluctuate downwards. So my experience is that opening a position when the stock price underperforms the broader market in stages can torture your heart more effectively:
Looking back on 2020, we are gratified that we have deepened our understanding of some industries and companies, and at the same time, we have made efforts to expand the scope of research and improve our insight into the value of enterprises. Some of our investment decisions in 2020 come from long-term research and accumulation, and we have completed the opening of positions with the help of the pessimistic market in the epidemic.
We hope to constantly improve our own research, so as to better guide future investment.
The profession of fund manager is similar to that of doctor in some aspects, both in theory and in actual combat. Both need continuous accumulation and a high degree of knowledge reuse. They need to improve their knowledge system and improve the accuracy of decision-making through continuous reading, thinking, decision-making and error correction every day.
Compared with many excellent international investors with a record of 30 or even 50 years, I still have too much to learn and accumulate. Unfortunately, there is no shortcut to this process, and it is impossible to do it overnight. Cognitive level is determined by all thinking, practice and experience accumulated in the past.
Finally, we are optimistic about the long-term prospects of China's economy and capital market. We believe that a number of high-quality enterprises will continue to grow, mature and live longer, and high-quality equity assets are still attractive among all kinds of assets.
The significance of Public Offering of Fund lies in enabling ordinary people to connect with high-quality rights and interests resources more effectively, so that holders can better share the fruits of China's economic development and keep up with the rapid growth of social wealth.
Although my ability is limited, I will go all out to project my cognitive level into the investment decision of the fund to the maximum extent. I hope to select high-quality enterprises and hold and share the development achievements of enterprises for a long time.
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He Shuai of Bank of Communications Schroeder introduced his next stock selection criteria and three promising directions in "Brief Outlook", and also talked about the impact of the rising fund size on the investment framework.
He Shuai's performance in 2020 is not brilliant. He also shared his views on fund products in the annual report, which is also a short response to agreeing with his investment style and being unfamiliar with his investment style.
The following is an excerpt from the original text:
Looking forward to 202 1, we have the following changes and ideas.
In the investment framework, first of all, we will be more inclined to the quality of the target. For example, the proportion of investment decisions may change from "the quality above 80 points to the price above 90 points, and the quality above 90 points will gradually shift to the price of 80 points", but we will still stick to the margin of safety and will not accept the price below 60 points.
Secondly, in the past, there were many industry leaders in our portfolio. There are few fundamental factors in these niche industries, and the company's relative competitive advantage is obvious. Usually, it can avoid the economic cycle and match the reasonable price. Our original intention is to pursue "stable happiness".
202 1 We have three promising directions.
First, we define that 2020 may be the first year of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles no longer rely on subsidies or license bonuses to attract consumers, but really impress consumers by improving the level of intelligence and driving experience, and expand consumer groups by relying on the products themselves. It is speculated that with the popularization of new energy vehicles in the future, similar autonomous driving algorithms and charging piles will be quickly supplemented, making the product experience achieve a positive cycle.
But the optimistic trend will also make the competition very fierce. For example, 0/00 years ago, only companies with obvious competitive advantages in the corresponding links could maintain high profit margins and enjoy industry growth.
Third, we are most optimistic about a trend, that is, a large number of domestic enterprises will gradually upgrade from cost leadership to technology leadership in the global division of labor. We find that this upgrade opportunity often needs great changes at the industry level to support it. For example, new energy vehicles have promoted the domestic automobile industry chain, the Huawei incident has promoted the electronic industry chain, and even macromolecular drugs have promoted the domestic innovative drug industry chain.
Behind this curve overtaking is that these companies are still under the management of the first or second generation entrepreneurs. They are more proactive in the face of changes and dare to invest in research and development and expand production capacity.
Finally, I'd like to talk about our views on fund products.
Every fund manager has his own investment style, but whether conservative or radical, for fund share holders, rich fund returns must be achieved through long-term holding.
Thank you very much for the patience and trust of the fund share holders, and hope that through our efforts, we will continue to create long-term and stable excess returns for the holders.
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Li Xiaoxing of Yin Hua Fund wrote a long "brief outlook". A large part is the content of investor education, and fund managers talk directly with the people.
Later, he also introduced his investment philosophy of absolute return, looking for prosperous industry investment, and also talked about the method of team management fund.
The following is an excerpt from the original text:
Our initial intention in fund management is to find the right holders who trust you and bring them long-term satisfactory returns.
As fund managers, everyone is still relatively strong, and no one wants to do worse than their peers. Net assets don't lie. If the net worth is less than others, the holder will earn less than others, and the investment method only serves this goal.
In the previous quarterly and annual reports, we may not talk much, but with the increasing number and scale of products under management, we feel it is necessary to make our holders more aware of the risk characteristics of products.
Roadshow ability is a double-edged sword, which can indeed bring about scale growth, but this ability may eventually hurt some fund investors and make them make some irrational investments that do not meet their own risk preference characteristics.
We think we should let the holder buy the fund just like we buy a company, that is, when you know all his shortcomings, you are still willing to hold him. This is the real risk control, because the thorns we face together in the future are far more than flowers.
Our investment philosophy is that long-term stable excess returns are absolute returns. If we can steadily outperform the benchmark by a certain margin every year, in the long run, it will eventually produce absolute returns that satisfy investors.
Our investment method is boom investment, and the stock market has a remarkable feature (including overseas), that is, industries with boom will expand their profits and valuations, and companies investing in these industries are more likely to make money. The prosperity may be months, quarters or years, and we are looking for industries with rising prosperity in the next 2-3 years.
Investment is not a career that pursues difficult movements, and difficult movements often mean taking greater risks.
With the growth of our scale, we have established a team of fund managers composed of industry experts.
Industry expert system is a good method. Although the labor cost is high, we believe that it is the long-term right thing to invest resources in team input and research capacity building.
The fund manager team does not need a 60-point generalist fund manager, but we hope to find a fund manager who can achieve 90 points in some industries. If everyone is integrated and there is no internal friction, it is a team of fund managers with 90 points.
The market view of 202 1 can be summarized in two sentences: pay attention to comparative advantage and avoid "rhinoceros risk".
We are optimistic about the two major directions of scientific and technological innovation and brand consumption in the medium and long term to avoid the risk of "grey rhinoceros" in real estate.
Compared with other countries, China has two comparative advantages.
The first is the comparative advantage of high-end manufacturing. Although we have a certain gap with Europe and America in innovation ability, our ability to turn scientific research achievements into commodities is the most advanced in the world. Including photovoltaic, electric vehicles, electronics and other typical industries all reflect such a feature. We have the most outstanding engineers in the world, who can turn scientific research results into commodities. Under this comparative advantage, we believe that China will be the best manufacturing-related technology-based enterprise in the world.
The second comparative advantage is that we have the largest consumer market in the world. In this epidemic, we found that the epidemic control in China is one of the best in the world, and our consumer market has also recovered the fastest. In such a huge consumer market, the world's largest consumer goods company will be born.
Regarding avoiding the risk of "rhinoceros", we can see that the top management has defined real estate as the field of "grey rhinoceros" and mentioned that it is necessary to control the risk of real estate. The three red lines proposed by the government are expected to have a certain impact on the funds of housing enterprises. From the demand side, due to various restrictive policies and long-term possible property tax, real estate demand is definitely down. Real estate-related companies are the ones we need to avoid.
Looking forward to 20021,we think that the overall risk of the market can be controlled, but the systemic opportunities are not big, mainly structural opportunities, and the portfolio yield is more from the excess of the relative index.
Macro is a complex system. For complex systems, simpler indicators are more useful.
The rate of return of active portfolio has a low correlation with economy, but it has a high correlation with liquidity, because when liquidity is abundant, active managers in the market will always find sub-industries with upward prosperity, and the economy is good and the cycle is bad.
We generally judge that the liquidity in 20021year is worse than that in 2020. Apart from liquidity, Sino-US friction and global epidemic will not be the dominant factors of market volatility.
Our overall allocation idea is to choose stocks whose performance growth rate is faster than the valuation decline rate. These institutional opportunities are the source of portfolio excess returns.
Under the background of marginal contraction of liquidity and high probability of economic recovery, we believe that stocks pushed up by liquidity have the greatest pressure to pull back.
Liquidity-driven stocks mainly refer to two kinds: one is that the performance growth rate is slow but the valuation is too high; The other is poor quality but high short-term performance growth and high valuation.
From the choice of market style, we are optimistic about high-quality growth stocks that match the medium and long-term performance growth centers of science and technology and consumption, and avoid stocks related to the real estate cycle in the cycle.
In the field of science and technology, first of all, new energy represented by photovoltaic and electric vehicles is a very promising direction, photovoltaic valuation is still attractive, and the performance growth of electric vehicles will be very fast in the next four quarters.
Third, we should be optimistic about the medical track. With the gradual aging of our country, we have higher and higher requirements for our own health and longevity. Even if there is a risk of price reduction, there are structural opportunities.
In the field of consumption, optimistic about high-end brand consumer goods has a very good business model, stable growth and high profit rate, and can enjoy the dividend of consumption upgrading.