1, about the rate of return
If you have 10000000 yuan, after you earn 100%, your assets will reach 200000000 yuan. If you lose 50% next, your assets will return to 100000000 yuan. Obviously, losing 50% is much easier than earning 100%.
2. About ups and downs
If you have 1 10,000 yuan, the assets will reach 1 1 10,000 yuan after the first day's daily limit, and then the next day's daily limit, the remaining assets will be 990,000 yuan; On the contrary, the first day of the limit, the second day of the limit, the assets are still 990,000 yuan.
3. About volatility
If you have 1 10,000 yuan, you will earn 40% in the first year, lose 20% in the second year, earn 40% in the third year, lose 20% in the fourth year, earn 40% in the fifth year, lose 20% in the sixth year, and the remaining assets will be1405 million yuan, with an annualized rate of return of only 5.83% or even 6 years.
4. About 1% per day
If you have 1 10,000, you don't need to make a daily limit, but you only need to earn 1% to leave, then based on 250 trading days a year, your assets can reach12032,000 in one year and1450,000 in two years.
5. About 200% per year
If you have 1 10,000 yuan and the annual rate of return is 200% for five consecutive years, you can also have 243 million yuan of personal assets after five years. Obviously, such high returns are unsustainable.
6. About 10 years 10 times.
If you have 100000000 yuan and hope to reach 10000000 yuan in ten years, 654380000000 yuan in twenty years and 6543800000000 yuan in thirty years, then you need to achieve an annualized rate of return of 25.89%.
7. About covering positions
If you bought 10 yuan when a stock was 10 yuan, and now you go to 5 yuan to buy10,000 yuan, the holding cost can be reduced to 6.67 yuan instead of 7.50 yuan as you expected.
8. About the cost of holding.
If you have100000000 yuan, and the return on investing in a stock is 10%, you can try to keep the market value of this stock at 1000000000 yuan when you make a selling decision, then your holding cost will be reduced to zero, and then you can hold it for a long time without any pressure. If you are extremely optimistic about the development of the company, you can also leave a stock market value of 200,000, and you will find that your profit has increased from 10% to 100%. Don't be complacent, because if the stock falls by more than 50% at this time, you may still lose money.
9. About the portfolio
Whether there are risky assets A (5% annualized) and risky assets B (- 20% to 40% annualized). If you have 654.38+00000 yuan, you can invest 800,000 risk-free assets A and 200,000 risk assets B, then your worst return for the whole year may be zero, and your best return may be 654.38+02%, which is the embryonic form of CPPI technology applied to capital preservation funds.
10, about shorting
If you have 1000000000000 yuan, you can short a stock by shorting, then the maximum rate of return you may have is 100%, provided that the stock you short has fallen, and there is no upper limit on the rate of return, so don't short it forever, if you don't believe that human society will progress.
1 1, about casino profits
Based on the analysis of Macau gamblers 1000 data, it is found that the probability of winning or losing is 53% and 47% respectively, in which those who win the money leave the market gain 34% on average and those who lose the money lose 72% on average. Casinos don't need to make profits, and they can continue to make profits by relying on human weaknesses to ensure fairness. So is the stock market.
12, about the future of money
If you deposit 10000 yuan in the bank with an annual interest rate of 5%, it will roll into 13 15000 yuan after 200 years. If the growth rate of national currency issuance remains above 10% (at present, the M2 balance of broad money in China is 107 trillion yuan, and the annual growth rate is 14%). If it is only a matter of time before the monetary system collapses at such a speed, then not only China, but the whole world will face the reconstruction of the monetary system. The growth rate of currency issuance will gradually decrease to below 2%, and the annual rate of return of 20% can only be achieved in China.
13, on the probability of successful investment
If the probability of your successful investment is 60%, it means that you have invested 100 times in a row, of which 60 times were profitable and 40 times were losses. If the take profit and stop loss are set to 10% and-10%, it means that the final yield is 350% (1.1.60 * 0.940 = 4.50).
Interpretation: Yes, little friend, it has blinded your eyes and the yield is 3.5 times! The next thing you need to think about is how to ensure that your winning percentage is 60%. Don't take it for granted that this success rate is almost impossible for most people.
14, about take profit and stop loss
Soros said that he doesn't care about the probability of winning or losing, and he expects to earn more when he is profitable than when he is losing money. Assuming that we make a profit of 10% every time and stop loss of -5% every time, then invest 100 times continuously, assuming the probability of winning or losing is 50%, then your final rate of return is 803.26% (1.1.50 * 0.9550 = 9.0350).
Interpretation: Yes, you are not mistaken, and the yield is 800%. The premise is that you can resolutely stop loss and take profit. Secondly, can you guarantee that you can achieve more profit-taking opportunities with a 50% probability?
15, about normal distribution
Many things in this world are normally distributed. For example, the ratio of genius to idiot is very small. Most ordinary people, such as the distribution of social wealth, are also normally distributed. Too many things, such as people's height and weight, are normally distributed. Regardless of the bull and bear market, the ups and downs of all stocks will show a normal distribution compared with the broader market, and only a few stocks can surpass the index. When you want to get the excess, it must be that one of your factors or abilities has reached a tiny area with positive distribution. What should you do if you don't have this ability? Of course, living well is the core competitiveness of investment, but don't forget that fate will be normally distributed.
16, on Matthew effect
The principal of local tyrant account is 65.438+0 billion yuan, and the principal of X-ray account is 65.438+0 million yuan. The annual income of local tyrants is 654.38+00%, and the annual income of X-rays is 654.38+000%. At the end of the year, the local tyrant account 1. 1 billion yuan and the X-ray account were 200,000 yuan, and the gap between the two sides widened by 9.9 million yuan. When your principal is not an order of magnitude with others, you probably don't know what the other party thinks.
Math problems of chickens and rabbits.
Ask chicken rabbit 18, one ***46 legs, ask how many chickens? How many rabbits?
Interpretation: The conventional thinking is that the chicken is X, then the rabbit is 18-X, and a unary equation is set to solve it. The extraordinary idea is to let all chickens and rabbits lift their legs, so that a * * * leg lift 18*2=36 legs, and the remaining 10 legs are rabbits, so there are 5 rabbits and 13 chickens. So you have to believe that in the face of the same stock price data, some people have completely different ideas from you.
18, on steady investment
Investors A, B and A get 10% in the first year, 50% in the second year, and B keeps the annual yield of 30% for two years. Ask who has a higher rate of return after two years.
Interpretation: The result is that the rate of return of 69% in two years of B is higher than that of 65% in two years of A, which is 4 percentage points higher. A very simple question, just want to tell you that steady investment is not equal to low return, but to ensure the certainty of getting a higher return in the end.
19, about transaction frequency
Based on the commission of 15,000 yuan and stamp duty of 1,000 yuan, the turnover rate of one year 10 means that the transaction cost is (0.05% * 2+0.1%) *10 = 2%. For the small partners who have to change positions every week, the transaction cost of one year has exceeded 10%. You have not borrowed leveraged funds, and you have to pay a higher capital cost than leveraged funds. Nuozuo Nuoyou, unless you have strong profitability and reduce your trading frequency, you will donate the average income of the stock market to brokers and the government.
20. On quantitative investment
The so-called quantitative investment means building models, guiding data, controlling risks and trading automatically. A more appropriate metaphor is the matter of finding a partner. Most of our own investment is qualitative, including two schools: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The former refers to education, income, family, personality and many other factors, and then digs out the white horse blue chip and holds it for a long time. The latter is becoming more and more popular now, because this is an era of looking at the face and feeling. Parents are often unshakable "quantitative investors" in this matter. They defined a series of indicators, such as local hukou, economic prosperity, parents' good health, good character, housing (100 square meters or more without loans), direct divorce and widowhood. , and then give them different weights. When the conditions are met, they will take the initiative to request the execution of the transaction. As for the happy way? Different people have different opinions. The only difference between quantification and high-frequency trading is that it is best to get married once.