A comprehensive registration system will be implemented soon, and rumors of T+0 have been released. On the surface, these news are of great benefit to securities companies, but in fact, this is not the case.

In the past, the main source of income for securities firms was commissions, which were asset-light.

As long as the market situation comes up and the trading volume increases, the profit growth rate will be like a rocket.

Today's securities firms have extremely low commissions, and the proportion of institutions on the market is getting higher and higher. Commission income is becoming increasingly negligible. Most of them make money through financing lending and pledge lending.

Isn't this a bank?

If you have to rely on heavy assets to make money, then you have to rely on banks for valuation.

This is actually a change in the logic of securities companies. Most banks' PEs are less than 10 times. Now that securities companies have to value their shares slightly higher than the bank's valuation, they will still have to fall a lot.

Recently, securities companies have become "abandoned" among most people!

Let’s talk about it.

The first wrong logic, why don’t securities companies rise?

In fact, it’s not that it won’t rise, it’s just that it hasn’t arrived yet.

The main reason here is because the grouping market this time focuses on white horse stocks and core theme stocks. Such stocks are usually grouped together in a bear market to stabilize the index and alleviate the room for decline.

But this time, due to the participation of foreign capital and the participation of internal funds, a group was formed, so securities firms must not follow.

Otherwise, if the securities firms follow suit, banks, cycles, etc. will all rise up, and it will reach bubble valuation. Who will protect the market?

Who can stabilize the index in a bear market?

The second wrong logic is that retail investors are optimistic about securities companies, so they don’t rise!

It is actually a false proposition for retail investors to be optimistic about securities companies!

1. Although there are many people who are optimistic about it, not many people actually buy it and hold it for a long time; 2. Even if there are many people who are optimistic about it and many people buy it, the number of holdings is not large, and it cannot be compared with institutions at all;

(Just check the data and you will know) The third wrong logic is that there are many retail investors, so institutions are unwilling to carry the sedan chair for retail investors!

Many retail investors may hold securities companies, but the number is not large, and many of them even entered the market after chasing highs in July last year and were losing money.

Once the capital is recovered, retail investors can run faster than rabbits.

Therefore, institutions are not worried at all about carrying sedans for retail investors, because human nature has never changed, and most retail investors are like: "Damn, I sold it out! I wish I had known better!" In the end, I

What I want to say is that there can be no brokers in the bull market!

The launch of every bull market relies on brokers: the rising index in the early stage of the bull market; the continuous stabilization and upward trend in the bull market; and the crazy rush to the top after the bull market; and, the index of every big bull market must be

There will be an increase of at least 100%, and the contribution of this increase must not rely solely on white horses and cores, but must return to the financial + cycle.

Therefore, it’s not that securities companies are not rising, it’s just that the time has not yet come.

In fact, most of the undervalued leading brokerages have not broken their positions, but are just shaking and washing the market normally in the box. However, most retail investors have too weak endurance, and their speculative behavior of chasing ups and killing downs always makes them buy at high positions and cut at the bottom.

low position.

I think there are several reasons why securities companies are not rising: 1. There are too many retail investors.

The logic is too obvious. The market has risen like this. Why don't the securities companies rise?

And many big V are optimistic about oversold big technology and brokerage firms.

Therefore, retail investors follow stock commentators closely and hold on firmly.

Some people are still covering their positions, and the more they cover, the more they fall.

Don't go to crowded places, especially places with many retail investors.

2. Whether stocks or futures, there is a trend.

At present, brokerage firms as a whole have broken through and hit new lows.

Tickets with a downward trend can only be traded in the short term. Every big rise is an opportunity for arbitrage, and it is impossible to change the trend.

Even for big leaders such as Wingtech Technology and ZTE, their stocks continued to enjoy good news some time ago, and they rose sharply, but eventually returned to the starting point.

Because at the top of every range during the decline, there are a large number of hold-up orders.

If the brokerage firm you own rebounds after the holiday, you must clear your position when it hits near the previous high.

3. Brokerages have become tools for the market’s main players to regulate the index. On the day of the sharp drop on January 29, the main players turned over the bank’s cards and stabilized the index.

And brokerages may be the last card drawn.

But it is not the main force. Liquor, construction machinery, etc. are at the forefront.

It is at best a logistics force.

Now that the large forces are advancing step by step, of course there will be nothing to do without the logistics troops.

Unfortunately, when the index is too hot, in order to control the rhythm, the main force will continue to suppress the brokerage firms to prevent the index from rising too outrageously.

Because every brokerage has its own trading business, wouldn’t it be nice to sell its own stocks and buy them back when they get cheaper?

4. The market is currently running in a new box, and the previous box is at 3200--3450 points.

Theoretically, the box level this round is 3450--3700 points, but there are too many retail investors in A-shares, and their emotions are easily overheated. If they rise, they will rise too much, and if they fall, they will fall too much.