Information from all sides shows that post-disaster reconstruction will be the focus of the next stage, the most important of which is undoubtedly the source of funds. Fan, deputy director of the Economic Situation Research Office of the Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that at this stage, the funds for post-disaster reconstruction mainly come from financial funds and bank credit funds.
However, bank credit is facing the problem of limited scale. At the same time, the reporter was informed that the official research institutions will soon begin to analyze the next stage of domestic macroeconomic trends, especially the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan on economic operation and CPI.
The reconstruction funds are mainly finance and credit.
At a recent news conference, Mu Hong, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the overall consideration of the country for post-disaster reconstruction work is to complete the preliminary work and overall planning of post-disaster reconstruction in about three months, and basically complete the main tasks of post-disaster reconstruction in about three years.
Regarding the sources of reconstruction funds, Mu Hong indicated that it would raise funds through various channels such as government investment, counterpart support and social donation. Fan believes that at this stage, the funds for post-disaster reconstruction mainly come from financial funds and bank credit funds. Earlier, the central government has decided to allocate 70 billion yuan to establish a post-disaster recovery and reconstruction fund, and will continue to make corresponding arrangements next year. According to the information released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, as of May 2 1 day, banking financial institutions * * * issued loans of 6502210.9 million yuan for earthquake relief and post-disaster reconstruction in Sichuan disaster areas. At the same time, a credit agreement with a total amount of 82.66 billion yuan has been signed to the Sichuan disaster area. Judging from the signed agreements, the four major state-owned commercial banks and policy banks provide credit.
Earlier, it was suggested to provide funds for reconstruction by issuing special government bonds. Fan said that this is only the personal opinion of some experts.
The difficult problem of credit scale adjustment
Bank credit funds face the problem of credit scale in supporting post-disaster reconstruction. According to central bank data, RMB loans increased by1796.5 billion yuan from June 5438 to April, a year-on-year decrease of 47.2 billion yuan. If the scale of new loans this year should be controlled at around 3.63 trillion according to the target set at the beginning of the year, then nearly half of the loan scale has been used.
According to rough statistics, according to the credit scale determined at the beginning of the year, it was about 1.08 trillion in the second quarter, which means that the loan scale in May and June was only about 6 1.6 1 100 million yuan. The remaining credit in the last eight months of 2008 was about 1.8 trillion. Traditionally, the credit demand for post-disaster reconstruction will also be included.
Regarding whether the much-watched monetary policy and credit scale have been adjusted, Fan said that from the recent monitoring information, the prices of some agricultural products such as pork have dropped slightly, which will lead to a certain decline in CPI in May. However, she also believes that with the start of post-disaster reconstruction in earthquake areas, investment demand will increase, which may further push PPI (price of means of production) higher. "This is the focus that should be paid attention to in the next step. Considering the price trend of crude oil, steel, coal, etc. And the impact of post-disaster reconstruction on investment, the future price trend of means of production needs to be focused on. From this perspective, the tight main tone of monetary policy will not change for the time being. "
Wang Yong, a professor at Zhengzhou Training College of the People's Bank of China, holds a similar view. However, he believes that it will be more and more difficult to achieve the credit control target set at the beginning of this year, considering the credit demand for post-disaster reconstruction. "When determining the credit scale for the whole year of 2008, some unexpected disasters were unexpected. From this perspective, there will be room for adjustment of the credit scale throughout the year. At the same time, we will continue to strictly control the credit supply to other industries and fields. " (