Domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been laid out for many years, but there is still a long way to go before commercialization. 65438+ 10 On June 3rd, Zhu Dequan, vice president of Tsinghua Industrial Development Research Institute, attended the committee of the 100-member forum on electric vehicles in China. At present, China is facing "three long and two short" in promoting the commercialization of fuel cells. It is suggested that more attention should be paid to hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles.

Zhu Dequan said that China's economy is changing from quantitative growth to quality growth. The essence of economic quality growth is the destruction and remodeling of global industrial chain. In the process of economic quality growth, China can lead the world by developing hydrogen energy to create a new huge industrial chain.

When talking about the development of hydrogen energy, he summed up the current situation faced by the industry with "three long and two short". That is, China has abundant and cheap hydrogen energy resources, a huge commercial vehicle market, and great subsidies. At the same time, however, there are also some problems in China, such as incomplete industrial chain, large gap between key components and products.

Zhu Dequan suggested prudent and steady development, especially infrastructure construction, putting safety first. In addition, the goal must be set high. "I think the power system can reach $60 per kWh. I calculated the weight of the materials used in the fuel cell power system, and I can do it on a large scale. "

What I want to say today is that fuel cells have officially entered the commercialization stage, and what are its paths and challenges.

First of all, we are talking about fuel cell vehicles today. In fact, I think it is necessary to raise the height.

Because fuel cell vehicles are only a form of hydrogen energy, and hydrogen energy will have a great impact on China's national economic structure. Hydrogen energy will subvert two industries: first, it will subvert traffic, which is mainly cars, accounting for more than 90%; Second, it will subvert energy, because the application of renewable energy and traditional energy, intermediate hydrogen energy is the best connection point. Last year, China's GDP was 82.7 trillion, and the automobile and energy industries both exceeded 10 trillion. Coupled with consumer electronics and real estate, the four industries have exceeded 40 trillion, and hydrogen energy will subvert the two industries of 10 trillion. Therefore, the importance of hydrogen energy in the national economy can be further emphasized.

Second, China's economy is shifting from quantitative growth to quality growth.

The quantitative growth economy is getting heavier and heavier, but today it can't work. If it can't grow, we will compete in the upstream of the industrial chain. The essence of economic quality growth is the destruction and remodeling of the global industrial chain, that is, destroying the core part of this industrial chain and then reshaping it.

Is it possible for China to create a huge new industrial chain and lead the world? For example, we have done it in a small area like high-speed rail, and we have already led the world. China is such a big consumer market that any industrial chain can be used. The answer is hydrogen energy.

The influence of hydrogen energy will involve more than 1/4 of the global GDP, so this industrial chain is an area to promote the change of China's economic structure and to continue to share with the world, that is, an area that does not need to fight. Therefore, we must fight on the traditional industrial chain, but the hydrogen energy industrial chain will definitely lead and attract global cooperation.

What does global cooperation depend on? One is to rely on our technology that keeps pace with or even leads, and the other is to rely on our huge market scale. To look at hydrogen energy from the perspective of energy, we should not just look at it from the perspective of vehicles. If we look at hydrogen energy from the perspective of energy pattern, cars are only a part, including fuel cell stacks. For example, how to scale, the focus of scale is not cars, but energy storage. The total power of fuel cells used for energy storage in a medium-sized wind farm is equivalent to 65,438+0,000 buses, which is laborious, but the market of a wind farm is easier to develop and scale. So I think energy storage is more important from the perspective of reducing the cost of fuel cells on a large scale.

China has three advantages in developing hydrogen energy, especially fuel cell vehicles, which foreigners do not have:

First, China is rich in cheap hydrogen resources, which is very suitable for us to lead the world.

I went to Japan, South Korea, Germany, Norway and California to see the infrastructure of hydrogen refueling stations. Their average minimum cost of using hydrogen is about 8 dollars, and hydrogen refueling stations do not make money. China's industrial by-product hydrogen Today, we have been able to deliver $4 to users. Hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation can all make money, and all links can be profitable. Four dollars is RMB in 30 yuan, RMB in 40 yuan is equivalent to 60 dollars of oil price, and RMB in 30 yuan means it is cheaper than diesel, which can be done today. There are 6,543,800 tons of industrial by-product hydrogen in chlor-alkali industry alone, which can be used by 2 million cars. Chlor-alkali is small, and there are coking plants and steel mills. At present, our petrochemical plant has a large number of dehydrogenation units with larger scale.

Recently, we sent 16 people and two groups to JD.COM, Cainiao and other logistics companies to study the usage scenarios of hydrogen energy in logistics vehicles and where the entrance is.

Survey results: firstly, logistics vehicles; The second is the bus, which is not as powerful as the logistics car, and the fragmented government market is not easy to do. The third is the extended-range car, that is, the extended-range taxi. Usually they use electricity, run long distances or start hydrogen energy at critical moments, because their transfer points are almost fixed, and a small number of hydrogen refueling stations are enough. Fourth, large trucks and vehicles in fixed areas. We have a huge commercial vehicle entrance which does not belong to any country. We just finished the investigation. For example, JD.COM has four distribution centers in Beijing, such as Shunyi Distribution Center, with more than 600 logistics vehicles, and a hydrogen refueling station can consume 2 tons of hydrogen every day. How can such a hydrogen refueling station be unprofitable? The huge market of commercial vehicles is not available in any country.

Third, the subsidy is very strong. I think the current technical level can basically make FCV fuel cell vehicles almost equivalent to ordinary logistics vehicles and buses. In another two years, if the subsidy remains unchanged, it may be upside down.

The "two shortcomings" are mainly:

First, the industrial chain is incomplete and mismatched. China's hydrogen energy started from small companies, almost all of which are start-ups and started from technical departments. At present, the time for large enterprises to come in is not long, but both Japan and South Korea are large companies developing, so our industrial chain is incomplete and not matched, and the cost cannot be reduced. An imported air compressor is almost equivalent to the cost of the whole power system of others, which is impossible.

Second, there is a big gap between key components and products. The key components of the power system, such as membrane electrode, air compressor, hydrogen pump, hydrogen storage bottle, hydrogen gun, hose, etc., are all imported, and the materials of high-pressure hydrogen are not deeply studied, which has great security risks.

Finally, I want to say that hydrogen energy is too hot now, so we must develop cautiously and steadily, especially in infrastructure construction, and put safety first. Second, the goal must be set high.

I think the power system can reach $60 per kWh. I calculated the weight of the materials used in the fuel cell power system, and the scale will be fine; Second, platinum load, we are not afraid of platinum load in commercialization, because platinum can not be sold, can be recycled, is hard currency, and can be solved by financing lease.

Energy has now reached $4, so the fuel cell cost target is very important for large-scale commercialization. The goal is that at this stage, we can still realize commercialization without subsidies, and then hydrogen energy will develop rapidly.