In 2021, stabilizing economic growth will still be an urgent task. Since the real estate market is closely linked to both investment and consumption, expectation management is very important. To adhere to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, and to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, we must attach equal importance to the stability of housing prices and investment stability, and ensure that the two "stabilities" are coordinated with each other.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the national real estate development investment was 14,144.3 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0% over the previous year. Under the impact of the epidemic, the annual growth rate dropped by 2.9 percentage points from the previous year, but the 7.0% growth rate still reflected the characteristics of stability and moderation. It is generally believed that this data is within a healthy and reasonable range between 5% and 10%, below 5% it is too cold, and above 10% it may lead to overheating. Judging from the proportion of real estate development investment in fixed asset investment, it was 27.26% in 2020 and 23.57% in 2019. Considering that the epidemic has caused some fluctuations in the investment structure and consumption structure, the annual changes in this proportion are generally flat.
Judging from the sales situation, the sales area of ??commercial housing in 2020 was 1,760.86 million square meters, an increase of 2.6% over the previous year; the sales volume of commercial housing was 17,361.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7%. Among them, residential sales increased by 10.8%, office building sales decreased by 5.3%, and commercial business building sales decreased by 11.2%. The national average price of commercial housing in 2020 was 9,860 yuan/square meter, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. While meeting rigid demand, through a series of price stabilization measures, the average price increase has been slightly narrowed compared to 2019, achieving the effect of stabilizing housing prices. But in the long run, curbing excessive housing price increases is still the main direction.
According to calculations by relevant professional institutions, the total liabilities of my country's real estate companies in 2019 were 30.31% of the annual social financing stock. This ratio is on the high side and measures should be taken to reduce it. If social financing is too concentrated in one area, the risks are self-evident. This is also the fundamental reason why the Party Central Committee has repeatedly emphasized that "housing is for living, not for speculation" and actively promotes the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. To this end, on the one hand, we must reduce the popularity of the real estate market, ensure the new rigid demand and improved demand for residents' housing, resolutely curb real estate and land speculation, and prevent excessive financialization of all types of real estate; on the other hand, we must also Optimize the asset-liability structure of real estate companies. On the basis of clearing out poorly managed companies, we can improve measures and create conditions to allow high-quality real estate companies to replenish capital through equity financing and other methods, and expand the scope of application of real estate trust investment funds (REITs). , increase industrial chain financing, enhance the asset liquidity of real estate companies, and effectively prevent and resolve debt risks of real estate companies.
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year identified “solving outstanding housing problems in large cities” as one of the eight key tasks in 2021, requiring “adapting measures to local conditions and adopting multiple strategies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.” "We must attach great importance to the construction of affordable rental housing, accelerate the improvement of long-term rental housing policies, gradually enable renters and purchasers to have equal rights in enjoying public services, and standardize the development of the long-term rental housing market." Improving long-term rental housing policies and strengthening the long-term rental housing market are one of the fundamental measures to curb excessive rise in housing prices, and also open up huge market space for the transformation of real estate companies. With the improvement of living standards of residents in big cities, people's demand for diversified and high-quality housing management services is growing day by day. Real estate companies have quietly entered a new era as they transform from development-oriented to service-oriented. After housing prices are relatively stable and the proportion of rental housing reaches a certain scale, earning income by providing more systematic and professional property management and other services will become the mainstream income model for service-oriented real estate companies. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we must make a difference in solving the housing problems in big cities, expand the scale of the affordable rental housing market, match the supply structure and demand structure, reduce housing anxiety, and realize housing for living rather than speculation.
Many institutions predict that the scale of real estate investment is expected to continue to maintain steady growth in 2021, and housing prices in different regions will diverge. To promote high-quality economic development, we must especially increase the innovation and development capabilities of the real economy. As an important part of the economic system, real estate must adhere to the word "stability" first, that is, stable housing prices and stable investment. Stable investment is to ensure rigid demand and structural adjustment. On the basis of the mutual coordination of the two "stabilities", it is our goal to divert more financial resources to the innovation field and stimulate greater innovation momentum.
(Originally titled "The real estate market must adhere to the coordination of two "stabilities"")