In the long run, this fund is on the rise.
Now look at the valuation. Is he particularly expensive? If it is not expensive, it can be held for a long time.
In fact, whether the fund is profitable or not mainly depends on the judgment of market conditions on the basis of determining its long-term financial management objectives. If you think there is a great room and probability for the market to fall in the future, you should consider taking profits. If there is obviously a lot of room for growth, then no matter how much profit you made before, you should not take profits.
Fund redemption has nothing to do with income, but the future upside of the market.
The return of partial stock funds is highly correlated with the stock market. If you think the market will fall in the future, you should consider lightening your position. If you think there is still room for growth in the market in the future, don't lighten up.
We take the market index as a reference to observe the operating rules of the A-share market. Although funds and markets are not completely synchronized, they are all close to the fluctuations, patterns and laws of the market. ) A-share bear market is long (lasting 4-5 years) and bull market is urgent (lasting 2-3 years), and the ups and downs are very intense. Bull markets often have returns of 150% or even higher. Investing in such a market, the core profit source is to hold it until the bull market rises for 2-3 years, and then reduce the position in the middle and late period of the bull market. If you stop making profits every 20%, you will miss the bull market.
Some friends may think that the profit-taking line of 20% is too low, so is it feasible for us to raise the profit-taking line to 100%? Taking the trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 as the market ups and downs, it is divided into two stages. From 20 14 to 20 15 in June, the index rose by more than 250%. If you only take 100%, you will earn less 150%. From 20 16 to the beginning of 20 18, the index rose by about 50%, and by the end of 20 18, the index basically returned to its original place. There was no profit of 100% in the middle, so it failed to take profit, and all the profits were retreated.
Therefore, reasonable take profit is not a problem that can be solved by a number, and it has nothing to do with how much income you earn. Instead, you have to judge whether the current market price is expensive or not, and then judge the space for future market ups and downs. If it is judged that the market is relatively expensive, there is little room for growth and big room for decline, then take profit, and vice versa. Judging whether the market is expensive or not and the future fluctuation space is based on the valuation of the market.
The future ups and downs of the market should be based on valuation.
The common valuation method in the market is based on PE (price-earnings ratio). PE=P/E (share price/earnings per share), and the PE value means investing at the moment. Investors can earn back the share price after holding this stock for several years. For example, 20 times PE, that is, investors can return their shares in 20 years. The higher the number, the more expensive the proof.
So much expensive? Let's look at an example first. At the beginning of 20 13, the growth enterprise market rose from about 700 points to about 1700 points at the beginning of 20 14, and its valuation also rose from more than 30 times to more than 60 times. At that time, the growth enterprise market had risen by about 140%. 60 times the valuation represents the current price and profit, and it will take 60 years to return to the capital. It feels so expensive. Is it necessary to take profits?
As a result, the GEM index did not stop, but continued to rise after adjustment for about half a year, until the high point of more than 4,000 points of 20 15, and the PE reached 160 times. The market result is objective, which tells us that compared with the highest 160 times, the PE of 60 times is not high.
abstract
1. It is unscientific for a fund to make a profit only by numbers. Whether the fund sells or not mainly depends on judging whether the market will fall in the future;
2. Future market trends should be viewed in combination with market valuation;
3. The overall investment strategic target plan should be made in advance, and the tactical plan should be made according to the market situation under the strategic target plan. In the same market situation, different positions need different tactical decisions.