In fact, the timing of buying and selling bond funds is closely related to the market interest rate. In China, lending money to the state is the lowest risk. Lending money to the country is actually buying government bonds. Therefore, the market interest rate generally refers to the interest rate of government bonds. There are so many kinds of national debt with different maturities, which one should we refer to? General reference 10-year treasury bond interest rate.
Next, let's look at the relationship between market interest rate and bond price: market interest rate rises and bond price falls; Market interest rates fell and bond prices rose. In other words, the bond price is negatively correlated with the market interest rate, and inversely proportional.
Then when we invest in bond funds, we definitely hope that the bond price will rise after buying, that is, we hope that the market interest rate will fall in the future.
Then how can we know whether the market interest rate will rise or fall next? It is impossible to accurately predict the market interest rate. However, we can make a general judgment. The market interest rate will not rise and fall indefinitely, and usually fluctuates within a range.
Because the market interest rate fluctuates slightly and is relatively stable, the average market interest rate is also stable for a long time. When the market interest rate exceeds the average, the probability of falling will be greater, and when the market interest rate is lower than the average, the probability of rising will be greater.
Therefore, as long as the current yield of 10-year treasury bonds is compared with the average market interest rate in the past three years, it can be judged whether bond funds should be purchased:
The current market interest rate (10-year treasury bond yield) is higher than the average market interest rate in the past three years, and the future market interest rate has a high probability of falling, so buy bond funds;
The current market interest rate (10-year treasury bond yield) is lower than the average market interest rate in recent three years, and the market interest rate may rise in the future, so sell the bond fund.
Now that I know the trading time, where can I buy and sell bond funds?
Most bond funds are traded over the counter, such as Tian Tian Fund Network, Alipay, WeChat Wealth Management and other third-party platforms.