The role of scientific and technological progress in economic growth will be further enhanced, and global scientific and technological competition will be further intensified. Capital accumulation, labor input, human capital accumulation and technological progress are the four driving forces of economic growth. /kloc-in the 0/9th century, capital accumulation was the main driving force of world economic growth. In the 20th century, especially after the Second World War, science and technology developed rapidly, and the rapid popularization and application of science and technology, especially high technology, became an important feature of world economic development. It is conceivable that science and technology will show an accelerated development trend in 2 1 century; With the improvement of economic development level, the role of scientific and technological progress in economic growth will continue to increase.
In the 20th century, developing countries can take advantage of the "latecomer effect" and gradually narrow the gap with developed countries by implementing the catch-up strategy. However, in the 2 1 century, high technology will increasingly become a "global natural monopoly". Whoever can seize the intellectual property rights of new technologies and the right to formulate standards for the development and application of new technologies will gain a monopoly position in this technical field. Future generations may lose the possibility of gaining a place in this field forever. 2 1 century, the competition among big countries in the high-tech field will become increasingly fierce. It is an important task for all countries in the world to formulate the correct strategy and choose the correct mode of scientific and technological development in the 2 1 century.
The international division of labor will be further deepened, and international trade will maintain rapid growth. After the war, especially since the 1980s, the proportion of the total import and export volume of countries in the world in their own CDP has generally increased substantially. A related phenomenon is that the growth rate of world trade is much higher than the growth rate of world total output. The direct reason for the increase in the growth rate of world trade is that the breadth and depth of international division of labor have been greatly strengthened. The latter is the result of technological progress, export-oriented economic policies implemented by most countries in the world and global business strategies implemented by multinational companies. Under the framework of WTO, the progress of trade liberalization in various countries and the establishment of various regional free trade zones have also strongly promoted the development of international trade.
At present, the world economy is in a period of structural adjustment, and the global overproduction is quite serious.
In developed countries, especially the United States, the growth rate of service industry (tertiary industry) is much higher than other industries, and many products of service industry are traditionally non-tradable. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the growth rate of international trade decreased in the early 2 1 century, and the rising trend of the proportion of world trade in the world total output may be temporarily interrupted. However, the deepening of trade liberalization and the development of network information technology (e-commerce, etc.). ) will further reduce transaction costs. In the long run, in 2 1 century, the international division of labor will be further deepened and the growth rate of world trade will be further improved.
2 1 century, a severe challenge facing developing countries is how to adjust the industrial structure, export product structure and regional structure in time and cultivate competitive multinational industrial and commercial companies. On the one hand, developing countries should give full play to their resource advantages; On the other hand, developing countries must constantly upgrade their industrial structure and export structure to avoid being permanently subject to the vertical division of labor system led by western countries.
Transnational direct investment will continue to develop rapidly, and it is imperative for developing countries to adjust their foreign investment policies.
With the rapid development of international trade, transnational direct investment is also developing rapidly. The development of direct investment was initially related to the existence of trade barriers. In order to avoid trade barriers, a developed country directly invests in other developed and developing countries to occupy each other's markets. The current direct investment is closely related to the global business strategy of multinational corporations. It is worth noting that although the world economy has experienced the Asian financial crisis, the growth trend of global direct investment, including direct investment from developed countries to developing countries, is still very strong.
During a considerable period of 2 1 century, due to the deepening of trade liberalization and capital liberalization and the development of new technologies, especially information technology, direct investment will further develop. Multinational companies' investment in services and high-tech fields in developing countries may accelerate. Due to the development of new technology, the traditional direct investment model may be replaced by the new direct investment model, and the forms of direct investment may tend to be diversified. Developing countries must further improve their foreign investment policies and pay more attention to the quality (technology and knowledge content) of foreign investment.
The wave of merger and acquisition of transnational corporations is further rising, and transnational corporations are increasingly becoming the main organizers of world production.
In the current global economic activities, the role of multinational corporations is increasingly strengthened. The decline of transportation, communication and technology dissemination costs caused by scientific and technological progress has greatly strengthened the ability of multinational companies to organize international production. Powerful multinational companies in developed countries raise funds and organize production and sales on a global scale according to their own development strategies and business strategies. The economic strength of many multinational companies has surpassed that of some medium-sized countries. Multinational companies are increasingly becoming the organizers of socialized production worldwide.
Because the accelerated development of science and technology counteracts the law of diminishing returns to scale, the scale effect of transnational corporations' mergers and acquisitions will greatly improve their competitiveness. Because the research and development cost of high technology has reached an alarming level (billions of dollars at every turn), and the cycle is long and the risk is high, joint development has become the only choice. In the 2 1 century, the merger and merger trend of transnational corporations is likely to develop further.
Developing countries must seize the time to cultivate their own large or super-large enterprises and multinational companies based on their own countries. Otherwise, in the fierce global competition in 2 1 century, enterprises in developing countries that lose tariff protection will face extinction.
Financial capital liberalization and globalization continue to develop, and international financial turmoil is inevitable.
With the gradual lifting of restrictions on cross-border capital flow by governments around the world and the rapid development of information technology, the global flow of bank capital and securities capital (stocks and bonds) is expanding and accelerating. The essential feature of financial globalization is that financial capital flows rapidly around the world in pursuit of the highest rate of return. On the one hand, financial globalization can promote the rational allocation of resources on a global scale, on the other hand, it greatly increases the instability of the international financial system. Huge international capital may flow rapidly from one corner of the world to another corner of the world due to irrational psychological effects, causing drastic changes in exchange rates of relevant countries and serious chaos in domestic financial systems, thus leading to serious economic crises in a series of countries.
After the Mexican financial crisis, the Asian financial crisis and the American financial crisis, the momentum of financial liberalization and globalization has not weakened, and the scale of international capital cross-border flows has continued to increase. In the 2 1 century, the trend of financial liberalization and globalization will not change. On the other hand, although the international financial market has returned to stability, a series of basic factors leading to the financial crisis have not been eliminated, and the international financial system has not undergone fundamental changes. 2 1 century, the possibility of a new and more serious international financial crisis still exists.
In order to avoid the impact of the international financial crisis through the "contagion effect", while actively participating in the process of financial globalization and gradually opening up the domestic financial service market, developing countries must correctly grasp the speed and opportunity of free convertibility under their own capital accounts, and at the same time strengthen regional monetary cooperation and maintain regional financial stability. The role of the World Economic Organization is increasing day by day, and at the same time, the voice of reforming the world economic order will rise again.
2/KLOC-In the 20th century, the International Monetary Fund, the WTO and the World Bank will remain the main pillars for maintaining the world economic order in three major areas: finance, trade and development. With the increasing role of the World Economic Organization in world economic affairs, national sovereignty is increasingly restricted, the role of the World Economic Organization will be further strengthened, and sovereign countries will have to accept the arrangements and rulings of international organizations in many aspects.
2 1 century, in the process of economic globalization, due to the irrationality and ineffectiveness of the existing world economic order, the voice of reforming the existing world economic order will surely rise again, and the struggle between developing countries and developed countries inside and outside various international organizations will be fierce. On the one hand, developing countries should abide by and safeguard the authority of existing international economic organizations. On the other hand, developing countries should strengthen mutual coordination, break the monopoly and control of the United States and a few other big countries on international organizations and the right to make international economic rules, and actively promote the reform of existing international economic organizations.
Global income inequality will be further aggravated, and human society will also face serious poverty and environmental problems.
In the 1990s, with the rapid development of globalization, the income gap between poor countries and rich countries, and between poor and rich people has widened sharply. According to Forbes magazine, the total wealth of the top 225 richest people in the world exceeds 1 trillion dollars. Only the wealth of Bill Gates ($50 billion), Walton family ($48 billion) and Warren Buffett ($33 billion) exceeds the combined annual income of 48 developing countries such as Afghanistan, Yemen and Zambia. As global inequality intensifies, contradictions and conflicts between developed and developing countries will intensify in a certain period of time, and social contradictions and conflicts within some countries will also intensify. In addition to income inequality, human poverty and living environment problems are far from being solved. The era of simply pursuing economic growth rate has passed. 2 1 century, more resources should be used to solve inequality, poverty and environmental problems. In other words, sustainable growth should be the main goal of economic policies of governments in the 2 1 century. However, how to realize the transformation of growth mode is still an unsolved problem for governments all over the world.
The trend of regional economic cooperation and economic integration will be further strengthened. In 1990s, the trend of global economic regionalization or regional economic integration was in the ascendant. After decades of efforts, the European economy has finally achieved monetary union. 2/kloc-0 At the beginning of the 20th century, the euro, as the national currency of major European countries, will eventually be replaced.
The success of European economic integration has also encouraged countries and economies unwilling to accept world economic hegemony.
It has increasingly become the common aspiration of countries and economies in Asia and other regions to realize various forms of regional economic integration (or cooperation) and promote their own economic development through this integration. In 2 1 century, the trend of economic integration will be greatly strengthened in all regions of the world, especially in Asia. The rise of various regional economic integration organizations characterized by free trade zones will become one of the important features of world economic development in the 2 1 century.
An important lesson of the Asian financial crisis is that under the conditions of globalization, it is difficult for a country or economy to resist the impact of powerful international capital alone. However, it is difficult (or unwilling) for the existing international economic organizations to provide timely assistance to the affected countries (or the conditions of such assistance are unacceptable). In this case, countries with similar geographical positions inevitably pin their hopes on the mutual help between neighboring countries (or economies).
In recent years, the concepts of monetary cooperation such as the Asian Monetary Fund have attracted more and more attention and interest from Asian countries and economic entities. Based on the current political and economic reality in Asia, the conditions for realizing economic and monetary integration are not yet mature. However, in the 2 1 century, the economic and monetary cooperation among Asian countries (economies), especially the coordination among their trade policies, macroeconomic policies and exchange rate policies, will be greatly strengthened.
2 1 century will be a more challenging new century. Looking back on the past 100 and looking forward to the future 100, we have reason to be full of confidence and hope. As long as we persist in reform and opening up and boldly meet the challenges of the new century, China's prosperity will surely be realized.