according to CCTV news, on December 8, local time, the Russian central bank announced that Russia's foreign exchange reserves increased by 3.8 billion US dollars in the past week, reaching a total of 571.3 billion US dollars. Earlier, Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves also rose significantly.

the Russian central bank

has reported that the west has imposed seemingly severe sanctions on Russia. In theory, this is a series of measures that can hit the core of Russia's economy, but in fact, these sanctions seem to have limited impact on Russia. It has been reported that Russia is one of the largest countries with the richest natural resources in the world. All along, the impact of sanctions on big countries is far less than that on small countries, and western sanctions against Russia may take several years to take effect. In addition, it has been reported that in this contest between Russia and NATO as a whole, it is actually those countries and regions with emerging economies that bear the brunt of the economic impact.

sanctions have limited impact?

the west still depends on Russian energy

since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the west has imposed sanctions on Russia in various directions. It has been reported that in theory, this series of sanctions can hit the core of Russian economy. In the spring of this year, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the forecast data showed that Russia's GDP would drop by at least 7%-8% in 222, and it might even reach 11%, and its prices would rise by 2%-25%. However, this may not be the case. According to the report released by the Council of the European Union in official website on November 23rd, independent surveys by the World Bank, the OECD and the International Monetary Fund show that Russian GDP will drop by 3.4%-5.5% in 222. In addition, on November 23, local time, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation said that the annual inflation rate in Russia dropped to 12.3%. According to the report, Russia's economy has indeed been affected, but it is far from as bad as previously predicted.

why can Russia's economy still hold up under the fierce western sanctions? Some analysts believe that, first, Russia's economic defense is very effective; Second, there are many loopholes in Western sanctions against Russia.

According to the analysis, the most effective economic defense is initiated by the Russian Central Bank. According to previous reports, the Russian Central Bank had previously established the world's largest gold and foreign exchange reserves worth 64 billion US dollars, which was called the "fortress" of Russian finance by the outside world. According to the data from the economic data website TradingEconomics, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia's foreign exchange reserves have shown a downward trend and then increased. The report pointed out that at the beginning of the conflict, the Russian financial system was really hit hard, and the western sanctions against the Russian central bank may be much stronger than previously expected. However, due to the proper management and operation of the Russian central bank, the system was restored. In addition, even though many Russian banks were kicked out of the SWIFT system in the West, Russia subsequently tied the ruble and Russian energy settlement together, allowing European countries to pay their energy bills in rubles, "objectively lifting the SWIFT sanctions against Russia". According to another report, European Commission spokesman Peter Stano said that the EU would consider the possibility of reconnecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT system.

according to the data of TradingEconomics, an economic data website, Russia's foreign exchange reserves show a downward trend and then an upward trend.

The report also points out that many western sanctions against Russia are actually intended to curb Russia's production capacity. IT is reported that some industries in Russia, such as IT services, food and manufacturing, are more dependent on imports. Western sanctions did restrict the import of some key Russian products at first, but Russia quickly adjusted its direction and turned its attention to countries that did not participate in sanctions, such as Belarus, and imported the required products from these countries.

in addition to Russia's strong self-defense ability, western countries' sanctions against Russia also have limitations, especially in the energy field. According to the report, western countries' sanctions against Russia are limited to some areas, but they have not stopped importing energy from Russia. With the energy crisis and soaring inflation, Russia has not only been unaffected, but has earned a lot of money in the energy field. According to the previous report of Reference News Network, as of the end of July this year, Moscow earned 97 billion US dollars through oil and gas sales, of which about 74 billion US dollars came from oil exports. According to the report, despite the slight decline in oil exports, the average monthly income of oil sales in Russia this year is 2 billion US dollars, compared with 14.6 billion US dollars in 221. In addition, natural gas is also one of the main energy sources exported by Russia. According to media reports on December 7th, Gazprom will deliver 42.4 million cubic meters of natural gas to Europe through Ukraine on the 7th.

who is "injured" when Russian energy makes money and western capital flows into Ukraine

?

Russia's foreign exchange reserves have increased in the past week, and Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves have also increased. According to the report issued by the Central Bank of Ukraine, as of December 1, Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves reached US$ 27.951 billion, an increase of 1.7% over the beginning of November. The Ukrainian central bank said that one of the reasons for the increase in foreign exchange reserves was the steady inflow of funds from international partners in November. It has been reported that the real losers in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are those fragile emerging economies, such as Sri Lanka and Peru.

The report points out that western economic sanctions against Russia are actually a double-edged sword, which can bring pain to Russia, but it will also bite itself. According to the analysis, western countries are caught in an embarrassing situation: with the intensification of conflicts and the escalation of sanctions, domestic energy prices and living costs have soared, which has brought a lot of income to Russia, but it has aggravated inflation in western countries.

however, the energy crisis and the cost of living crisis are not only affecting western countries. The report pointed out that in Sri Lanka, Peru and other countries and regions, the soaring prices of fuel, food and fertilizer have triggered people's street protests, and even some have experienced political turmoil.

In addition, in order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for several months, and the strength of the US dollar also triggered a rapid outflow of international hot money from emerging countries, and non-US currencies depreciated sharply. According to a report of the Asian Development Bank, as of October, the Philippine peso has fallen by 12% against the US dollar, Indian Rupee by 1% and Vietnamese dong by 9%. With the appreciation of the US dollar, it is more difficult for the fragile emerging economies with debts in the form of US dollars to repay their debts.

Red Star journalist Li Jinrui

Editor Yu Dongmei Yang Cheng.