The word "Ping" means "Ping for both sides", which is a policy adopted by the ancient government of China to regulate market prices and obtain fiscal revenue. In the second year of Emperor Gaozu's Ding Yuan (1 15 BC), Sang Hongyang lost the trial, and set up a defeated official and a quasi-official under Dasinong. "Set up a government (commodity warehouse) in the capital to win goods, buy at a low price and sell at a high price, so the county officials are innocent and the businessmen have no trade income, so they are equal." Because this method is really feasible, future generations often follow suit, such as Wang Mang's "five averages of 60 thousand"; Tang Liumian managed the southeast financial tax and used the tax to buy goods for Guanzhong. In Song Dynasty, Wang Anshi adopted equal loss method and market exchange method. Wait a minute. In the famous "Wealth of Nations" in the west, there is also a "leveling theory".
The so-called stabilization fund, also known as intervention fund, refers to the fund legally established by the government through specific institutions. Such funds can operate the securities market in reverse, such as buying when the stock market is irrational and the value of stock investment is prominent; When the stock market bubble is rampant and the speculative atmosphere in the market is crazy, the selling method can smooth out the irrational fluctuation of the stock market and achieve the purpose of stabilizing the securities market. The stabilization fund is a fund legally established by the government through specific institutions (CSRC, Ministry of Finance, Exchange, etc.). ). Through the reverse operation of the securities market, the violent fluctuation of the market is ironed out, so as to achieve the purpose of stabilizing the securities market. Under normal circumstances, the source of the stabilization fund is legal or its basic composition is mandatory, such as national financial allocation and collection from relevant units participating in the securities market. , and does not rule out the placement of shares to investors who voluntarily purchase. Broadly speaking, the stabilization fund usually refers to the fund established by the government in a legal way through a specific institution, which reduces the irrational fluctuation of the market through the reverse operation of a specific market, thus achieving the purpose of stabilizing the market.
According to the above definition, the stabilization fund has the following characteristics:
The stabilization fund is a policy fund, and its fundamental duty is to stabilize the securities market and prevent ups and downs. Therefore, the whole process of its establishment, operation, evaluation and management is influenced by policies or directly supervised by the government, serving the securities regulatory authorities and becoming one of the effective means of direct supervision of the securities market. The stabilization fund is a non-profit fund, which makes it different from other securities investment funds, because the purpose of other securities investment funds is to maximize the fund value for investors. The stabilization fund should have a large enough plate. If the number of funds is not large enough, it will have little effect on the stability of the securities market and will not play the role of "anchoring the sea". The source of the stabilization fund has legal channels or its basic composition is mandatory, such as national financial allocation and collection from relevant units participating in the securities market. , and does not rule out the placement of investors who voluntarily purchase. There are special regulations and procedures for the operation and management of the stabilization fund to ensure the principle of "three publics" and not harm the interests of most investors.
At present, there are mainly foreign exchange stabilization fund, national debt stabilization fund, grain stabilization fund and stock market stabilization fund. As the name implies, the stock market stabilization fund is a fund legally established by the government through specific institutions (CSRC, Ministry of Finance, Exchange, etc.). ). Through the reverse operation of the stock market, the irrational fluctuation of the stock market is ironed out, and the purpose of stabilizing the stock market is achieved.
The sources of the stabilization fund can be varied, mainly legal channels, and its basic components are mostly mandatory, such as state financial allocation and collection from relevant units participating in the securities market. , nor does it rule out placing shares to investors who voluntarily purchase.
The stock market stabilization fund is different from other securities investment funds. As a policy fund, its main purpose is to serve the stability of the securities market, so it has its own characteristics.
At present, there are not many countries and regions that set up stock market stabilization funds in the international market, mainly including Hongkong, China, Japanese and Taiwan Province Province, China. From the operation point of view, there are successes and failures.
The most successful example is 1998, a successful sniper war by the Hong Kong government against international financial speculators. 1In August 1998, Soros and other international speculators launched a "three-dimensional" attack on the linked exchange rate of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong stock market. On the one hand, Soros, together with other wealthy "predators", directed his funds to sell the Hong Kong dollar, which hit Hong Kong's linked exchange rate for many years three times, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar fell rapidly from a high level. At the same time, by1August 1998 1 14, the Hang Seng Index had dropped to nearly 6,500 points, the lowest point in the past five years. The Hong Kong government decided to intervene in the stock market and futures market, and used the Exchange Fund11800 million Hong Kong dollars to buy Hong Kong stocks. Speculators kept shorting stocks, but the Hong Kong government tried to sell them. After 14, the Hong Kong Government finally succeeded in repelling the speculators: on August 28th, the Hang Seng Index closed at 7829, with a turnover of HK$ 79 billion, a single-day high. Subsequently, the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong immediately registered and established the Exchange Fund Investment Company Limited, which was responsible for managing the stocks purchased in the "market entry" operation. Within 32 months of 200 1, all the Exchange Fund used by the Hong Kong Government at that time had been returned. At the same time, it also earned more than110 billion. In 2002, the Exchange Fund successfully transferred its Hong Kong stocks to the people of Hong Kong through TraHK, thus successfully fulfilling its historical mission of "rescuing the market".
The operation of Japan's stabilization fund is not ideal. In order to counter the influence of international investment funds, the Japanese government used the Postal Savings Fund to enter the market to buy stocks when the stock market fell in recent ten years, so as to reverse the decline of the stock market. But the effect is not obvious.
The key to the expected effect of the stabilization fund lies in whether the stock market faced by the stabilization fund is a perfect market, whether the macro-economic aspects of the market are good, and whether it supports an upward trend of the stock market. If these conditions cannot be met, when and how the stabilization fund will intervene will be a difficult problem. If we don't grasp it well, it will aggravate the irregularity of the market and delay the time of self-repair and development of the market. The result may be that the goal of stabilizing the market cannot be achieved, and the stabilization fund itself will suffer heavy losses.
1998 China launched a pilot securities investment fund, trying to achieve two goals: one is to pursue the self-appreciation of the fund through the portfolio to bring the maximum benefits to investors, and the other is to assume the function of market stability. At present, the scale of the new investment fund has reached 55 billion yuan, but its function of stabilizing the market has not been shown in the operation process. In fact, the two goals set for investment funds are contradictory. Because these investment funds mainly come from the beneficiaries of private equity funds, the goal they pursue is of course to maximize the income, which is reflected in the fund managers. Their primary task is to maximize their own profits and have no obligation to stabilize the market. Due to the limited scale of China stock market and insufficient market competition, it is possible for fund managers to manipulate the stock price by using their capital advantages. In addition, at present, the evaluation standard of fund value is mainly fund net value, and the fund reports published regularly force fund managers to pursue the maximization of net book value. Therefore, no matter how large the investment fund is, it cannot undertake the heavy responsibility of "stabilization fund". In order to stabilize the securities market, special funds must be redesigned.
800 billion stabilization fund report submitted to senior management.
Huang Liming Zhao Hongmei Jing Li Huang Yu
Last week, the discussion and vague news about the stabilization fund in the market suddenly increased. This newspaper has learned that a copy of "Establishing a Stock Market Stabilization Fund and Maintaining Financial Market Stability-Policy Suggestions on Stabilizing the Stock Market" by the International Finance Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences is very relevant to this.
This report is an email list sent by the Center for International Finance Research of China Academy of Social Sciences on October 30th, 2008 as an anonymous special researcher, especially marked "for internal discussion". The report consists of five pages, of which three pages are the core content and the other two pages are the list of buying stocks.
It is reported that the report has been submitted to the top as a "policy proposal".
Yu Yongding, former member of the Monetary Policy Committee and director of the International Finance Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, confirmed the authenticity of the report. A researcher at the center said that it may be because of its special status that it is unwilling to sign, but the center received a lot of feedback and was well received in the industry. At the same time, the regulatory authorities have been considering the stabilization fund.
It is also known that 1 1 In the first week of June, high-level officials held relevant meetings for several days to discuss countermeasures to deal with the financial crisis. Participants included leaders, experts and scholars from various regulatory agencies. The meeting basically focused on maintaining macroeconomic growth, the stock market and the property market, and also involved the establishment of a stabilization fund.
Experts told reporters that the discussion was fierce. The State Council believes that the stability of the capital market must be maintained. The stock market stabilization fund is stepping up its research. At the same time, it is suggested that the State Council Research Bank set up a "special loan" which can be used to support central enterprises to buy back shares of listed companies. In addition, considering the current economic situation at home and abroad and the current business situation of enterprises, commercial banks will also make some adjustments in the credit structure and investment field. The real estate market is still dominated by stable development.
The launch time is ripe.
According to the report, A-shares have fallen by 73% this year, and the government's two major bailouts have failed.
The A-share market has started a new round of decline since the middle and late period of 10 due to concerns about the recent continuous decline of major international securities and financial markets and emerging markets and the continuous decline of corporate benefits.
The report estimates that since July 2008, the average loss of each securities account, including the number of fund households, has exceeded 50,000 yuan, and the loss has exceeded 60%. It involves nearly 1 100 million urban families.
The report pointed out that in the increasingly severe international and domestic financial and economic situation, drawing on the current experience of various countries in maintaining stock market stability and the experience of the Hong Kong SAR Government in the 1998 financial defense war, it suggested that the government should establish a stock market stabilization fund as soon as possible, choose a reasonable time and place, and announce whether to carry out 50 heavyweights in the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index (these stocks have a great impact on the national economy and are supported by good performance).
600 billion-800 billion scale
As for the source of funds, the report pointed out that it should be raised through the allocation of foreign exchange reserve funds, special funds allocated by the Ministry of Finance or the issuance of special government bonds, and suggested that CIC, CSRC and the Social Security Fund jointly set up an investment institution to manage the stabilization fund and be responsible for its operation. At the same time, large state-owned enterprises are short of operating funds, so it is not recommended to invest in the stock market stabilization fund in order to maintain the normal operating capital demand of state-owned enterprises.
As of June 27th, 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index 1723 points, the market value of 40 heavyweights in Shanghai Stock Exchange 10/3432 trillion yuan, and the market value of Shenzhen Stock Exchange10/90.4 billion yuan. The market value of 50 stocks is about *** 1.536 trillion.
According to the report, according to previous data, about 30% of the circulating market value is held by institutional investors such as funds, insurance, social security and China Investment Corporation. Therefore, if you support the market at the current point, assuming that all the target stocks are bought (assuming that funds and social security insurance are not sold), it will cost about 1.07 trillion yuan. Assuming that the market is supported around 1500, it will take about 930 billion yuan to buy all the circulating stocks. In actual operation, buying about 1/3 of the circulation market, about 300-400 billion yuan, is enough to support the market, because the total daily turnover of the two cities is 50-60 billion yuan, but in fact, the amount that can be effectively bought every day is 10%-20% of the turnover, which is controlled for 20-30 consecutive days.
Therefore, the report suggests that the government announce the establishment of a stabilization fund of 600-800 billion yuan to explicitly support the above 50 stocks above 1500, showing the government's determination and confidence in maintaining market stability. At the same time, state-owned holding enterprises are required to lift the ban on tradable shares and repurchase shares, and cannot reduce their holdings below 1500 points within three years; Funds of funds, social security, insurance and China Investment Corporation cannot reduce their holdings or smash the market below 1500. This will enhance investors' confidence in the stock market and stabilize the Shanghai Composite Index around 1500.
The author believes that it is estimated that China's economy will re-enter the rising channel in the next five years at the longest. At that time, the P/B ratio of the stock market should return to the stable range of 1.5-2, and the stock market stabilization fund will earn at least about 20% in the next five years.
The timing of intervention was 1500.
The report pointed out that the intervention of the stabilization fund in the stock market should be above this natural bottom, in order to prevent irrational factors from pushing the index below this level, which will make investors panic and the stock market eventually collapse. If the location is not suitable, the capital consumption to support the market will be too large, and the corresponding effect will not be obvious, and even the market will go down again. If you choose to intervene in relative bottom and variety stocks (large-cap blue-chip stocks), it will not only stabilize investors' confidence, but also gain long-term benefits.
The price-to-book ratio of the last bear market low-1000 is about 1.5 times. This has also become an important reference indicator for this round of decline.
According to the report, if the market falls to 1.5 times the P/B ratio, the corresponding Shanghai Composite Index should be around 1.500 points. Considering that this economic adjustment is more drastic (20% more downside than 1997 and 2004), China's economic growth will exceed 10%, and it will remain at least around 8% in the next three years. The two are partially hedged, and it is estimated that the market P/E ratio should be 10- 13 times, and the P/B ratio should be 65438.
Therefore, the report believes that in extreme cases, the limit of market decline is around 800- 1000 points, and it is meaningless to support the market at this time. If we want to effectively prevent panic selling, the key is to keep the median range around 1500 points (plus or minus 10%) to support the market meaningfully.
The report believes that "supporting the market above 1500 can stabilize the stock market and avoid panic." This is an effective point for the stabilization fund to support the market, with high security. "