Generally speaking, China's macroeconomic operation shows a steady growth trend, but there are many new problems and situations in economic operation, and the uncertainty of future economic operation is increasing. At present, the number of objectives of macroeconomic policy regulation is far more than the number of policies that can be used, and the policy tools are relatively simple, and many objectives cannot be achieved by short-term macroeconomic policy tools. We should draw out the difficulties in policy implementation from the analysis of China's macroeconomic difficulties and give the solutions.
Keywords economic difficulties, macroeconomic policies and policy orientation
China's economy is facing complex difficulties.
Generally speaking, China's macroeconomic operation shows a steady growth trend, but there are many new problems and new situations in economic operation, and the uncertainty of future economic operation is also increasing. Especially since 20 1 1, China's economy has encountered problems such as slow economic growth, rising price level, great employment pressure, and declining foreign trade, which can be described as "internal troubles and foreign invasion". Let's talk about "internal worries" first: First, the mode of ensuring economic growth by investment growth needs to be changed urgently. For a long time, in order to maintain the speed of economic growth, increasing investment has become the main driving force to promote rapid economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, the proportion of capital formation in GDP has been rising steadily, and even in recent years, it has continuously created new highs.
Prior to this, the ratio was over 40% at 20 10, which was higher than that of southeast Asian countries before the Asian financial crisis. In the process of rapid economic growth, the central government, local governments at all levels and state-owned enterprises account for a large proportion of investment, which is also a catalyst for the crowding-out effect of private capital and household consumption to promote economic growth. If we rely too much on investment to promote economic growth, the law of diminishing marginal benefits of investment will play a role, and the benefits of new investment will be lower and lower, which is reflected in the continuous decline of GDP generated by unit investment in macro, the reduction of asset management effect in micro, and even the situation that asset returns are lower than the cost of capital.
Second, excessive dependence on foreign trade will restrict economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, China's dependence on foreign trade has been expanding. 1978, China's dependence on foreign trade was 9.8%, and 199 1 year rose to 33.4%, in 2006 it was 67%, and even in the financial crisis in 2008 it reached 58.2%. This high dependence on the world market will make China's economy affected by the fluctuation of the world economy. The greater the dependence, the greater the impact.
Third, the industrial structure model of "high input, high consumption and low efficiency" formed by historical reasons needs to be adjusted urgently. By the first half of 20 1 1, the crude steel output and cement output with "typical overcapacity" reached 350 million tons and 950 million tons respectively, up by 9.6% and 19.6% respectively. The eliminated cannot be eliminated, and the restricted cannot be stopped. The development model of "two highs and one low" is "stiff but not dead", which is a severe test for the overall economic restructuring of China.
Fourth, inflation is in urgent need of control. After the financial crisis in 2008, the central government implemented a 4 trillion yuan investment plan to stimulate economic development in order to prevent a sharp economic downturn and ensure social employment, and asked local governments to provide corresponding matching funds, which correspondingly weakened the constraints on local governments' investment behavior. Therefore, local governments use various financing platforms to gather bank loans and issue bonds, resulting in over-investment and today's inflation consequences.
Fifth, the pressure of "expanding domestic demand" is extremely great. 20 1 1 The inflation rate in the second quarter was higher than 6%, and the number of unemployed people reached 200 million in recent years, which made it face the pressure of expanding domestic demand to make up for the impact of the decline in foreign trade on economic growth.
Look at "foreign invasion" again: First, the global economy has entered an adjustment cycle. Developed countries are subject to high unemployment rate, low asset prices, banking system crisis and financial restructuring pressure, and the downside risks of the economy increase. As of September, 20 1 1, relevant data show that the United States and some European countries have successively fallen into sovereign debt crisis. 20 1 1 in the second quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the euro zone 17 countries only increased by 0.2% from the previous quarter, which was the worst performance since the recovery. 20 1 1 The number of new jobs in the United States in August was zero, and the unemployment rate remained at 9. 1%. Based on the current financial situation of the euro zone and the United States, it is not easy to achieve an ideal balance, so the actual growth rate may be further discounted, and the International Monetary Fund has once again lowered its global growth forecast.
Second, in order to manage their own economic problems, European and American countries continue to introduce trade protectionist policies, and the "quantitative easing" monetary policy of the United States may be sustainable. This will inevitably lead to the further decline of China's foreign trade, the continuous decline of China's foreign investment and utilization of foreign capital, and the continuous appreciation of RMB.
"External troubles" act on "internal worries", and various problems are mutually causal, which makes China's economy face complicated difficulties: First, China should have adjusted its economic structure and industrial structure on the premise of maintaining a certain economic growth rate. That is to change the pattern that economic growth depends on government investment projects and foreign trade, expand domestic demand and improve the investment environment of private capital. At the same time, it is necessary to change the industrial development model of "two highs and one low", eliminate resource-consuming industries with high energy consumption and high pollution as soon as possible, and promote the transformation and upgrading of industries to circular economy. However, the weakness of the international economy will accelerate the decline of foreign trade and reduce the inflow of international capital, thus forcing China to stabilize its economy and speed up its adjustment.
Second, on the one hand, the RMB has appreciated rapidly against the US dollar. On the other hand, driven by the growing worries about the economic recession in Europe and the United States and the rising risk aversion, people buy dollars to hedge, the exchange rate of the dollar soars, and most non-American currencies depreciate at an accelerated rate. The RMB exchange rate has not only continued to strengthen against the US dollar, but also greatly appreciated against other currencies. The appreciation of RMB makes China's foreign trade worse. At the same time, the depreciation of the dollar caused imported inflation, and the inflow of international hot money pushed up the domestic asset bubble, further aggravating the existing inflation in China. This also forces China's macroeconomic policy into a dilemma: RMB appreciation can alleviate inflation, but it will increase the cost of foreign trade, accelerate the inflow of hot money and push up the domestic asset bubble; RMB depreciation will increase domestic inflationary pressure.
Difficulties in macroeconomic policy regulation and control
To get out of the current economic predicament, China must solve the above-mentioned "internal troubles and foreign invasion" and realize "maintaining growth"-achieving the macroeconomic goal of 20 1 1; "Reorganization"-How to transform and upgrade industries with high energy consumption and low efficiency; "Anti-recession"-preventing economic recession caused by related factors; "expanding domestic demand"-a means to ensure growth; "controlling inflation"-realizing the stability of price level; "De-foaming"-let asset prices return to an appropriate level; "Promoting people's livelihood"-multiple macroeconomic goals such as ensuring people's livelihood happiness. However, the setting and solution of multi-objectives violates the basic principle of macroeconomic policy regulation, that is, the "matching principle". That is to say: first, the goal of policy should not be more than the goal of policy tools; Second, when implementing policies, tools must match their most effective goals.
The actual situation is: on the one hand, the number of targets for policy regulation is far more than the number of policies we can use, and the policy tools are relatively single. Macro-control policies mainly include fiscal policy and monetary policy. Fiscal policies include tax policy, transfer payment policy and government procurement policy. Monetary policy is mainly composed of deposit reserve ratio policy, rediscount interest rate policy and open market business. Monetary policy adjusts interest rates through the adjustment of money quantity, and indirectly achieves the effect of adjusting effective demand. Although fiscal policy and monetary policy are divided into expansion and contraction, and generally speaking, when solving economic problems, these two policies are not used separately, but usually used together. However, it is obvious that the number of policies and policy tools are relatively single.
On the other hand, many goals cannot be achieved by short-term macroeconomic policy tools. For example, short-term macroeconomic policies will choose between "controlling inflation and defoaming" and "stabilizing growth and preventing decline"; The exchange rate policy will weigh the conflicting goals of controlling inflation, restructuring, stabilizing exports and controlling hot money. Third, even long-term goals, such as maintaining growth, restructuring, expanding domestic demand and promoting people's livelihood, are in great conflict, so it is difficult to reach an agreement, and the mismatch between one tool and multiple goals is intensified.
Macroeconomic policy suggestions
In order to solve the difficulties in policy implementation and get the economy out of the predicament, we should start from the following aspects in the short term:
First, there are more policy objectives than policy tools. Re-examine, we must find the main goal, while weakening and abandoning other goals as much as possible. Specifically, the goals of "maintaining growth" and "controlling inflation" should be the core of China's macroeconomic policy regulation and control in 20 12. Other goals can make it an intermediate and subordinate goal and be weakened.
Second, pay attention to the pertinence and matching of policy tools and policy objectives. In terms of fiscal policy, we should focus on "ensuring growth". Specifically, through the central and local tax and expenditure arrangements, we will continue to steadily advance the process of urbanization, promote the development of the western region and the revitalization of the old industrial bases in Northeast China, actively support small and medium-sized private enterprises, and encourage the expansion of private investment. At the same time, monetary policy and exchange rate policy should focus on "controlling inflation". Specifically, monetary policy should be changed from moderately loose since 2008 to steady, and monetary credit should be normalized. The direction of credit should focus on the goal of "ensuring growth", invest in the western development, the old industrial bases in Northeast China, small and medium-sized private enterprises and industrial upgrading enterprises, and adhere to the direction of credit policy in regulating real estate. Increase wealth through industrial development to curb inflation. While monetary policy controls inflation, it is also necessary to improve the marketization mechanism of RMB exchange rate to avoid RMB exchange rate fluctuations, so as to avoid asset bubbles and imported inflation pushed up by hot money inflows.
Third, at the same time of short-term target regulation, we should pay attention to its combination with medium-and long-term target regulation. For example, put "restructuring" on the strategic level, making it the core content of China's medium-and long-term planning, and avoiding short-term solutions to long-term and strategic problems. First of all, the important guarantee for China's sustainable development is "restructuring", and continuous reform and innovation is the way out. From the theory and practice of economic growth, we deeply realize that sustainable economic growth can be achieved not only by increasing the quantity of labor and capital, but also by improving the efficiency of labor and capital. Then, technological innovation and institutional innovation are the basis of improving efficiency and the only way to realize the adjustment of China's industrial structure and further promote sustainable economic growth. Secondly, it is the most important thing to carry out institutional innovation through reform, and at the same time promote technological innovation, banking reform, securities market reform and the development of private economy. To develop the private economy, it is necessary to cancel the market access restrictions on private enterprises. Protecting private property into the constitution is a favorable measure, and accurate and effective implementation is the key. Finally, the government should withdraw more from competitive industries and give full play to the role of the market and private enterprises in providing public goods. The government should concentrate on structural reform and minimize direct intervention in the economy.
In short, the goal is single, the means are simple, and the more convenient the operation, the easier it is to achieve the goal. It is optimistic to grasp the principal contradiction, effectively combine policies and solve China's economic difficulties.