Some people misunderstand that it is wrong to link the increase of pension with the average salary of employees. Before 2008, the pension adjustment did have a certain proportion of the average wage growth rate of employees in the previous year, generally 60%~70%. However, since 2008, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance have uniformly determined the pension growth ratio.

From 2008 to 20 15, the pension growth rate was 10%. In recent years, the growth rate is gradually decreasing, from 20 18 to 5% in 2020 and 4.5% in 20021year.

In fact, the social average wage growth rate of 9.7% refers to the growth rate of non-private units in cities and towns nationwide, while the growth rate of private units is only 8.9%.

20 19 the state promotes the reform of the payment base of endowment insurance. So far, the social wage caliber used by the pension calculation and payment base has not been merged. For example, in Shandong Province, the pension base is 6,893 yuan, while the social security base is only 6,243 yuan. It still needs a gradual transition.

Generally speaking, the current pension growth rate has little to do with the average social wage growth.

In fact, the national consumer price index will increase by 1.9% in 2020 and decrease by one percentage point in 202 1. If we consider from the perspective of price, we should lower the expectation of pension growth. It cannot be judged that the pension growth rate will be higher this year.

In fact, there is almost no correlation between the past growth rate of the consumer price index and the current growth rate, which is a very difficult factor to control. According to the government work report in 2022, the consumer price index is expected to increase by about 3% this year (if inferred from this, the pension calculation should be no less than 5%). In fact, the work report of 20021predicted that the consumer price index would increase by about 3%, but the actual increase was only 0.9%.

In 20021year, the total income of the national basic old-age insurance fund for employees was 6004 billion yuan, a substantial increase of more than 35% compared with the total income of 44376 billion yuan in 2020. But this comparison is purely numerical and has nothing to do with the objective reality.

In 2020, due to the large-scale implementation of the old-age insurance reduction and deferred payment policy in China, the total income of the employee pension insurance fund in that year was greatly reduced compared with 529188 million yuan in 20 19. Compared with 20 19, the annual growth rate of pension funds in 200219 was only 6.5%.

In 2022, we have also started a new round of deferred payment policy for old-age insurance premiums. Coupled with the serious unemployment problem this year, the income and expenditure of the endowment insurance fund will not be particularly optimistic this year. Like many flexible employees, pension insurance contributions may be transferred to the next year.

According to the 14th Five-Year Plan, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, 40 million elderly people will retire in China. In 2020, the number of retirees in pension insurance will increase by 4.52 million compared with 20 19, and the pressure on the income and expenditure of pension insurance funds is still great.

As we all know, China will promote the gradual delayed retirement during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. The policy of delayed retirement will not be implemented alone, but through various policies. Overall consideration is a basic principle of delayed retirement policy. For example, implementing the national overall planning of the basic old-age insurance fund for employees, improving the employment security of the elderly, promoting the voluntary delayed retirement policy and slowing down the growth rate of pensions are all optional policies.

At present, the pension adjustment plan for retirees has not yet been introduced, and the scope of adjustment has not yet been decided. Don't be too optimistic.

According to the responsibility decomposition of the 2020 government work report, the policy of adjusting pensions will be introduced before the end of June. Zhang Yinghua, an executive researcher at the World Social Security Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, predicted that the pension growth rate would be around 3%~4%, and Dong Dengxin, a professor at Wuhan University of Science and Technology, predicted that the pension growth rate would be around 3%. I hope everyone can understand!