A shares officially closed in 221. The Shanghai Composite Index is three consecutive years after 28 years.

222 is coming, what will be the trend of A shares and how to invest?

CITIC Securities believes that the A-share operation in 222 can be divided into two stages: the cross-cyclical policy in the first half of the year promotes the economy to return to the normal state before the epidemic, the macro liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and the A-share market as a whole is improving, with more opportunities. In the second half of the year, the monetary policy turned to be stable and neutral under internal and external constraints, and the profitability of non-financial sectors was under pressure under high base, and the market performance was flat.

Guotai Junan Securities also said that A shares may fluctuate sideways in 222, with the pattern of going up first and then down. Among them, resolutely optimistic about the spring market in 222, summer investors should do a good job of defense.

Industrial Securities believes that although the A-share market in 222 is difficult to have a big market as a whole, it is more of a structural market. However, under the background that incremental funds are still surging, the market is at least not a bear market.

in terms of configuration, large-cap blue chips are favored by many institutions.

citic securities believes that the proportion of "long money" in incremental funds will increase in 222, and the pricing power of institutions will be significantly enhanced. Therefore, in terms of style, blue chips are the main line of investment throughout the year.

Haitong Securities also pointed out that in terms of style, the overall market and value are expected to be slightly superior in 222, and the CSI 3 is expected to be slightly stronger than the CSI 5 in the case of superior performance.

citic securities: there are more opportunities in the first half of 222

overall, there are more opportunities in the first half of 222, and the second half is relatively dull.

Among them, the A-share operation in 222 can be divided into two stages: in the first half of the year, the cross-cycle policy promoted the economy to return to the normal state before the epidemic, the macro liquidity was reasonable and abundant, and the A-share overall improved, with more opportunities. In the second half of the year, the monetary policy turned to be stable and neutral under internal and external constraints, and the profitability of non-financial sectors was under pressure under high base, and the market performance was flat.

in terms of allocation, the policy focus was on steady growth in the first half of the year, and it is suggested to focus on the rise of high-quality blue chips. In the second half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the relatively prosperous sector.

222 will still be in the "aftermath" period after the big fluctuation under the impact of the epidemic, and the growth and price "ups and downs" caused by the extraordinary demand stimulus policies in some economies around the world after the epidemic, so the corresponding policy response is an important consideration in analyzing the asset allocation in 222.

Take a neutral and positive view of the market in the next 12 months, with "opportunity" in the overall crisis and "surprise" without "risk".

In terms of rhythm, it is still in the interactive period of growth slowdown and policy bottoming expectations, and the index opportunities may be dull. Investors are advised to focus on structure and balance allocation.

China Securities: The market may fluctuate widely in 222

Looking forward to 222, China's economy will run smoothly and its liquidity will remain neutral and loose. On the whole, the market may be similar to the market performance in 221, showing a wide fluctuation pattern.

in terms of sectors, industries with excellent performance in 222 will perform well. Among them, clean energy such as power grid investment, energy storage investment, photovoltaic and wind power is the first main line. Innovative drugs, home appliances and furniture, real estate returning to manufacturing, etc. are the second main line with the direction of prosperity. High-end equipment manufacturing industries such as national defense and military industry, industrial machine tools and new energy automobile industry chain are the third main line in 222.

in terms of market style, both blue chips and growth stocks will perform well in 222.

Guotai junan securities: in 222, the A-share market may fluctuate sideways, with the pattern of "up first and then down"

The A-share market strategy in 222 can be summed up in four sentences: there is no obstacle to attack in spring and defense in summer. The growth opportunity is still there, and the value is back on the stage. The cycle is extremely prosperous and declining, and consumption is extremely good. Manufacturing profits are improving and embracing the era of science and technology.

among them, we should be optimistic about the spring market in 222, and investors should be well defended in summer. At the same time, in terms of style, it should be said that both big stocks and small stocks have opportunities in 222, and the key depends on the individual style of investors.

at the same time, in 222, A-shares may fluctuate sideways, going up first and then down. Therefore, investors are advised to actively lay out the New Year's market and be optimistic about the new year's market in spring.

Haitong Securities: In 222, the amplitude of A-share index may increase, and the market and value will be slightly dominant.

Looking forward to 222, it is a high probability that the amplitude of A-share market index will increase. In 221, the amplitude of the market is at a very low historical level, so it is highly probable that the index amplitude will return to the historical average in 222.

At the same time, in 222, China's inflation is still under pressure from both PPI and CPI, and the price increase is still one of the key words in the macro dimension, so we should be alert to the inflationary pressure. From the time point of view, the upward cycle of this round of inflation has not been completed. In the current round of inflation cycle, the low point of CPI is -.5% in November 22, and the low point of PPI is -3.7% in May 22. As of November 221, it only went up for 12 months and 18 months respectively.

in terms of style, the market and value style in 222 may be slightly better. The back test results show that although the New Year's market in early 222 is still worth looking forward to, after the New Year's market is over, under the dual pressure of interest rate restricting valuation and profit downturn, the A-share market may usher in a break. Historically, in this market environment, the market and value are often better choices.

therefore, on the whole, in 222, the market and value are expected to be slightly superior, and the CSI 3 is expected to be slightly stronger than the CSI 5 in the case of superior performance.

Industrial Securities: At least 222 is not a bear market.

In the A-share market in 222, it is difficult to have a big market on the whole, and it is more a structural market. Among them, the index may be the state of "Dojo in snail shell".

However, in 222, the incremental capital of A-shares is still turbulent, so the market is at least not a bear market. In terms of micro-liquidity, first of all, even though the inflow of foreign capital may slow down marginally, it is still expected to be in the order of 2 billion yuan to 3 billion yuan. Secondly, after the continuous high-speed issuance of Public Offering of Fund in the past few years, as long as there is no systematic risk or fluctuation in 222, the high probability will maintain an increase of about 2 trillion yuan. Thirdly, with the gradual recovery of premium income, the scale of insurance capital entering the market will be marginally improved compared with this year. At the same time, private placement will also become a very important source of incremental funds in the market.

Therefore, under the background that bank wealth management keeps the inflow of 1 billion yuan, and social security, pension and annuity will increase by about 2 billion yuan, 222 will still be the year when incremental funds surge into the market. The incremental funds are expected to add up to about 3 trillion yuan. Driven by this volume of incremental funds, the A-share market in 222 is at least not a bear market.

in terms of allocation, in the current environment, investors are advised to explore the main investment opportunities of A-shares in 222, and focus on "small high-tech", that is, the sectors with small market value, high growth rate and new increment, which will be an important source of excess market returns in the next step.

gf securities: the middle and lower reaches can be allocated in 222

in 222, the profit of a shares will drop sharply, but it is difficult to form an effective hedge at the denominator end, and a shares will usher in the first pressure year since the "slow cattle on the financial supply side". Configuration should shift from "buying upstream" in 221 to "adding middle and lower reaches" in 222.

specifically, in 222, overseas countries will turn from recovery to stagflation, which will accelerate the pace of Fed policy contraction. Domestically, the downside risks of the economy are limited, the policy lacks imagination, and the overall situation will be based on stability.

judging from the contraction of the valuation after two consecutive years of expansion, this year is relatively mild, which means that it is difficult to expand the valuation in 222. At present, the valuation of the whole A-share and the structural valuation should be neutral and expensive, especially the leading stock of A-share is still expensive.

in terms of allocation, the performance of small-cap stocks in 222 is likely to turn from this year's rise to decline. At the same time, the scissors difference between PPI and CPI will converge, which will bring two allocation opportunities: one is automobiles, motors and white electricity, and the other is food processing and agriculture, where the downward cost pressure of PPI is eased.

Huatai Securities: Look at the A-share market in 222

Look forward to the market outlook and look at the A-share market in 222. At the same time, the market of A-shares in the last three quarters of 222 may be more solid. Specifically, even if the Fed is hawkish in 222, it will have little impact on the valuation of A shares. At the same time, the domestic economy has not declined, and the performance shows that the manufacturing industry is resilient.

It is estimated that the non-financial net profit of A shares will increase by 4.7% year-on-year in 222, and it is expected to reach 8.% under optimism and 1.3% under pessimistic expectation. The accumulation trend is "U-shaped", with the mid-year report being the low point and the annual report being the high point. Under the benchmark situation, combined with the judgment of positive profit growth and stable valuation center, we expect the annual income of A to be positive.

in terms of configuration, compared with the performance scissors difference, chip distribution and supply-side changes of the whole sector, it is predicted that in 222, the high-end manufacturing sector will be dominant as a whole, and mass consumption will have a chance to reverse its predicament.

specifically, the main line of A-share investment in 222 is the growth closed loop of energy and chips. In terms of industry configuration, energy storage power will be the shield and silicon-based demand will be the spear. In addition, the peak carbon dioxide emissions market may have just reached one third, and the high probability of "pan-power chain" industry rotation is still the main line of the market in 222.

Shanghai Securities: In 222, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3 and A5 indexes will go up for a long time.

In 221, the market funds are abundant as a whole. China reduced its investment to cope with inflation, which made the profit growth rate of traditional industries decline too fast. Some industries with strong cyclical beta, such as carbon neutrality and new energy photovoltaic industries with growth attributes, showed strong allocation power, and the market funds deviated from alpha to beta obviously.

in 222, with the gradual decline of non-market regulation, China's economic aggregate will remain stable, the profits of traditional industries will be fully restored, and the profit distribution will return to normal under the main tone of emphasizing "stabilizing the word first". In this environment, Alpha Company, which is undervalued this year, is likely to have a "profit+valuation" Shuang Sheng.

at the same time, it is relatively certain that the current beta market has come to an end, and the alpha market will be switched in 222. On the index, we are optimistic about the long-term upward trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3 and A5 indexes, Hong Kong stocks, Internet technology and Nasdaq 1.

guolian securities: the growth style is expected to dominate in 222

in 221, "recovery" is the main theme of the global economy, which is mainly reflected in the upward interest rate, rising prices and rising stock indexes in major countries. In this context, in 222, industries with relatively low performance sensitivity but relatively high sensitivity to valuation and policies should be selected for allocation. On the whole, the growth style is expected to dominate.

among them, the valuation of big finance is currently in a very low position, both from a historical perspective and from a horizontal comparison. Focus on recommending the brokerage sector with growth space.

in terms of the reversal of the dilemma in the middle reaches, the middle and lower reaches will be generally difficult in 221 due to the suppression of the price increase of commodities in the upper reaches. However, prices are expected to fall back in 222, which is also expected to bring reversal opportunities to the middle and lower reaches. Focus on recommending two industries: automobile and parts, and livestock and poultry breeding.

Proofreading: zhangyan