On Monday, the three major A-share indexes bottomed out, and the Shanghai Composite Index performed slightly better. The total turnover of the two cities was 859.7 billion yuan; The net selling amount of northbound funds was 5.744 billion yuan. Disk observation: chemical fiber, steel, nonferrous metals and other sectors were among the top gainers; Hotel catering, real estate, household appliances and other sectors were among the top losers. At the close: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.0 1% to 3 146.86 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 1 1447.95 points; The GEM index fell 0.30% to 24 10. 12.

market outlook

Looking back at the closing comments, I made a bold statement at the end of April and after May Day for three consecutive days: I am optimistic about the oversold rebound of the growth track stocks of "Kechuang Prosperity". At present, from the end of May, this month is indeed a rare growth month for new energy, semiconductors and other technologies this year.

The local epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places has been controlled and improved, and it is expected to resume work in June. Considering the recent frequent and warmer policies, the market has begun to expect the stability of economic fundamentals and accelerate improvement. The central bank introduced comprehensive measures to reduce the long-term loan interest rate, and many cities began to cautiously try to relax the policy of buying houses. The central bank recently lowered LPR 15BP, which strengthened China's policy expectation of "wide credit" and further eased "China recession transaction". The falling interest rates of US dollar and US debt show that the expectation of "American recession" in market transactions continues to heat up, and the performance of American retailers is like thunder, which has aggravated the market's concern that the Fed cannot achieve "economic soft landing". "Global recession trading" turned to "American recession trading"; The recent decline in the interest rate of US bonds can improve the denominator logic of growth stocks in the A-share market. The expected improvement of fundamentals and the joint efforts of policies will drive the mid-term repair of A shares for several months; After the low point in April, the domestic economy is expected to return to the trend of improving month by month in May, and the profit growth rate of A shares will also pick up after bottoming out in the second quarter.

We often say that the market often rebounds in despair, rises in hesitation and ends in carnival. In the pessimism and despair of most people, since the A-share rebounded from the low point on April 27th, it has inadvertently rebounded from 2863 to around 3 150 today. The offshore RMB exchange rate of the US dollar, which we have repeatedly reminded of, has also quietly rebounded from around 6.84 to 6.66 today. Under the joint action of a series of factors, the most difficult, pessimistic and desperate stage of the market may have passed inadvertently.

Operation strategy

The stage of "rebound in despair" has begun, and the stage of "rise in hesitation" may be unfolding; Although we are optimistic, it will take time for market confidence to recover. After the overall rebound, according to the current turnover, the situation will generally rise or be unsustainable; Internal and external disturbances have not been completely eliminated, and the rate of incremental capital inflow is relatively slow. Be alert to the kinetic energy exhaustion caused by the expected differentiation of policies. If the index is stable and the plate rotates, it is actually a good thing; Focus on four major directions: energy security, food security, financial security and national defense security.

Zhao, chief investment consultant of GF Securities, with the license number of S02606 140600 14.