1) At the beginning, there were 10 trillion RMB and 10 trillion materials in the market, and the materials and currencies were in one-to-one correspondence, so you could buy a catty of rice for each yuan.
2) As the exchange rate is fixed, the People's Bank of China must have the responsibility and obligation to buy/sell USD against RMB at 8.27 without restriction. Suppose an American businessman, with $400 billion in his hand, comes to the Bank of China and asks to change it into RMB. The Bank of China had no money, so it had to print 3.2 trillion yuan to American businessmen. Therefore, there is 13.2 trillion RMB in the market, while the material is only 10 trillion RMB. Theoretically, 13.2 trillion RMB is competing for 10 trillion materials. It will inevitably lead to inflation, and prices in the market will rise.
But in fact, the actual balance of the equation is: 13.2 trillion RMB vs 10 trillion materials+400 billion US dollars. Theoretically, foreign exchange reserves can be increased or decreased. China's central bank could have used $400 billion to buy back wheat and gold in the international market. In this way, the equation is balanced as: 13.2 trillion RMB vs 13.2 trillion materials. Or one-on-one When foreign exchange reserves accumulate, the price in the domestic market will rise. But as long as the country is willing to use foreign exchange to buy things, foreign exchange will decrease, and prices will naturally fall. Foreign exchange reserves fell to zero and prices returned to one to one.
Unfortunately, judging from the current situation, the Bank of China is also a local rich man and miser, who can only enter but cannot leave. 3) Step 3. To make matters worse, the RMB exchange rate is actually undervalued and the US dollar exchange rate is actually overvalued. The dollar is not worth the fixed exchange rate of 1: 8.27, and may only be worth 1: 7 to 1: 5. 400 billion dollars, we can't buy back 3.2 trillion kilograms of rice and wheat in the international market. In this case, the equation can never be balanced. Original formula: 13.2 trillion RMB vs 10 trillion materials+400 billion USD. The equation will never match: 13.2 trillion RMB vs 13.2 trillion materials, maybe only: 13.2 trillion RMB vs 12.8 trillion materials, or even only: 13.2 trillion RMB vs 12.0 trillion materials.
The reality this year is that Americans flock to China, holding a lot of white dollar bills and demanding to change them into RMB. In 2003, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $654.38+060 billion, exceeding the $400 billion mark. For example, from the establishment of People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 to Mao Lao's death in 1976, China's foreign exchange reserves were only $8 billion. Wise and great Deng Xiaoping, 20th anniversary of reform and development, from 1999, China's foreign exchange reserves reached160 billion for the first time. Throughout 2003, foreign exchange reserves increased, equivalent to the sum of the 50 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China!
Of the 654.38+060 billion new foreign exchange, only 45 billion is real FDI, which is what we call foreign direct investment. Foreigners came to China with money to set up factories and run export industries, which increased employment in China. It also transfers advanced technology from western countries. So this is well-intentioned, even if the dollar is overvalued, attracting investment should be considered as a preferential discount. What's even more frightening is that in the international financial system, someone actually took $654.38+02 billion and asked the Bank of China to make a forced acquisition according to 8.27. If the actual purchasing power of US dollars is only 1:5, then China people will lose 3 yuan RMB every time they exchange 1 US dollars. China people exchanged US$ 654.38+02 billion, and lost RMB 360 billion.
With this money, Americans can come to Shanghai to have a good time and buy the most upscale and luxurious villas. Two houses in Shanghai are nothing. If you buy all the houses on the market, it will be 80 billion. (800,000 * 65438+100,000 sets) In the past two years, the working class in Shanghai has a high voice, because they find that prices are rising, while their life savings are shrinking. What makes us fall into poverty, speculators and profiteers? Speculation can only last for a while, not for three or five years. There must be sustained purchasing power and wealth support behind it. Some people say that wages have not increased. The problem is that the newly printed banknotes are in the hands of Americans, not white-collar workers in China.
George W. Bush is printing paper money, excessive federal deficit debt, and a loan of $0.5 trillion from Asian countries, which is making this reckless western cowboy lose the shame of abandoning the last point. As the world's major countries have lowered the exchange rate of the US dollar, the US dollar has fallen again and again. Only China has maintained a fixed exchange rate against the weak dollar. This of course gives China a great advantage in export, and China has become the factory of the world. However, at the same time of 45 billion FDI, another 654.38+02 billion dollars of foreign exchange also poured into China. It is three times the size of the real economy. You know, dollars are printed on white paper. Whether the house in Shanghai sells for 6.5438+million or 6.5438+million, the cost is zero for Americans.
This newly printed RMB 654.38+00 billion diluted the original value of RMB. It is under the linked exchange rate that Americans are getting richer and China people are getting poorer. In fact, many things are not difficult to explain, just like a string of pearls, just need a rope to connect them in series. Why are there so many houses bought by foreigners? Because the newly printed RMB is already in the hands of foreigners. Why are house prices getting farther and farther away from local consumer groups? Because money is in the hands of foreigners. Why the investment purchase has reached the warning line, because of the expectation of currency depreciation. Why does the house price deviate from the rent? Because the currency is expected to depreciate. Why is the vacancy rate of new houses so high? Because the currency is expected to depreciate. Why buy the second and third houses? Because of the expectation of currency depreciation, 3 million people want to buy three houses to preserve their value. . .
What keeps us poor. To discuss whether Shanghai's housing prices will rise or fall in the future, we only need to answer two simple questions: Will George W. Bush stop printing money (at least before the US election in June 2004), and if you answer "No" to both questions, will China give up the fixed exchange rate? The currency frenzy will continue, and the RMB will become more and more rampant. Continuing to hold cash will only make you poorer. If you don't buy a house, at least buy some gold. 4) Compared with the third step, 13.2 trillion RMB currency corresponds to not only discounted US dollars, but also. . . No, it's nothing. 400 billion dollars just disappeared, leaving only 355 billion dollars. How can the foreign exchange reserves that were clearly placed in the vault of China Bank be gone? How can 400 billion foreign exchange reserves become 355 billion? Initially, it was reported that China Construction Bank and China Bank suffered serious losses. In order to save China's banking system on the verge of bankruptcy, the Ministry of Finance decided to withdraw $45 billion from foreign exchange reserves.
Injecting capital into the two major banks will reduce the non-performing loan ratio by half, benefiting the country and the people. Oh, the most difficult problem of non-performing loans that has plagued China's banking system for decades is so easy to solve. China has 400 billion foreign exchange reserves. If you take out 45 billion yuan, you will save two banks. At this rate, let alone the four major state-owned banks, even the top ten. Moreover, laid-off workers, state-owned enterprise reform, mine restructuring, and social security funds are all easy to handle. The so-called top ten problems in China in the new century can be easily solved by drawing tens of billions from foreign exchange reserves. Is it really that simple? All the top elites in China are idiots, and it was not until today that they discovered the big gold mine of foreign exchange reserves. The clever Ministry of Finance of China can solve all the major problems that have plagued developing countries all over the world for decades? Crucially, foreign exchange reserves are not the money of the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and the State Council, but the people's money! This is your money, and this is my money. The Ministry of Finance cannot use foreign exchange reserves, nor can the central bank, nor can any government department. As mentioned above, RMB must correspond to materials one by one. There must be as many materials as there are RMB.
When there are foreign exchange reserves, there are 13.2 trillion RMB, but only 10 trillion materials. But it doesn't matter, 400 billion dollars will go to the international market to buy back rice and wheat. Foreign exchange reserves actually represent the purchasing power of materials and RMB. It represents rice, wheat, cattle, sheep and salt in the market. It is precisely because there are materials and foreign exchange behind the RMB. We believe in RMB, we are willing to get a salary of 3000 yuan, we are willing to set up a noodle stand to sell a bowl of beef noodles for 5 yuan, and we are willing to work hard for a few dollars in the bank deposit for a lifetime. Foreign exchange reserves are not the money of the Ministry of Finance or the central bank, but the people's money, which is the wealth entrusted by the people in the central bank's treasury.
It is too late for the central bank to win the trust of the people. How can it infringe on the interests of the people and take their money? This is betrayal and stealing from the inside. 45 billion US dollars, equivalent to 360 billion yuan. Or 3% of residents' deposits. Every time RMB depreciates 1 yuan, the purchasing power decreases by 3%, corresponding to a depreciation of 0.97 yuan. 100000 yuan's savings in the bank automatically depreciated to 97000 yuan. Transferring 45 billion foreign exchange reserves to the Ministry of Finance is equivalent to collecting 3,000 yuan "cash tax" from everyone. On such a big day, why didn't anyone say that he was humming and rowing? On such a big day, every citizen paid 3000 yuan in tax. The losses of state-owned banks in China are mainly due to the inefficiency of state-owned enterprises and the corruption, unkindness and unpatriotic of factory directors and managers. However, no corrupt official will be arrested or held accountable for their corruption and profligacy. The bank lost money, but let1300 million people pay the bill, and let the people each draw 3000 yuan tax. Corrupt officials drink, but they want the people to pay the bill. How can there be such a truth in the world? The capital injection into China Bank and China Construction Bank is not very beautiful. The lack of transparency in the whole matter once again makes people question the credibility and civilization of the government. After 45 billion yuan was taken away, the RMB permanently depreciated by 3%, and then ICBC and Agricultural Bank were 6%.
If you add the damage to the credibility of the RMB, it is simply an immeasurable loss. China's central bank officials have completely failed the people's trust. The central bank's duty is to maintain the credibility of note-issuing banks and defend the credibility of the RMB. The principle of central bank officials is to defend people's lives and property to the death, at the cost of their lives and honorary positions. When people's property is taken away and the credibility of the currency is humiliated, central bank officials will not stand up and say a word. Just thinking about controlling the price by technical means is simply playing with fire. Money must correspond to materials one by one, and a country's wealth cannot be generated from the printing press. This is the most basic rule and an inviolable natural law. Of course, there is a transmission process from money to price. But technology can never replace fundamentals. Adjusting interest rates, central bank reserves and active or passive fiscal policies can only be fine-tuned for a while. The higher the dam is built, the more severe the flood will be. China's money/material ratio (M2/GDP) has reached a terrible 220%. The general practice of the international community is only 70%.
In other words, in the current situation, the price must rise at least three times to completely eliminate the currency bubble. Back in those days, when residents deposited 5 trillion yuan, Mr. Zhu deeply lamented that this was a man-eating tiger. Once it goes down the mountain, it will take away all the materials on the market. Now that five years have passed, the currency has multiplied several times, but the growth of market materials is limited. Jia Jian is short-sighted. Why didn't he know the volcano at his feet? In some countries in Latin America, a large number of paper money has been printed and adjusted by technology. At that time, some warlord bureaucrats thought that they could sit back and relax, and the technical side could transcend the fundamentals. But as a result, they live under the flood dike. Once the chronic disease is deep, the financial system will not be able to support it one day, and a large amount of funds will no longer be blocked. When the first money enters the circulation system, it will cause an avalanche, the price will soar out of control, and the credibility of the money will disappear. Technically adjust the currency bubble. The longer the pressure, the greater the rebound.
Still adhere to the view that house prices are too low, not too high, but too low, too low, too low. Rising house prices is a process of "squeezing bubbles", squeezing bubbles out of the monetary system. The government should push up prices in an orderly, moderate and rapid manner. Try to make the currency bubble soft landing, not hard landing. In the specific price system adjustment, we can consider exploiting domestic trade and subsidizing foreign trade. Try to increase the cost of real estate, public transportation, education, medical care, water, electricity and coal. Let the house price rise five times, ten times, and bear all the monetary pressure alone. Vent all the monetary pressure on housing prices. And take subsidies, taxes, technological transformation and other methods to make the export cost of foreign trade departments as low as possible. Exploiting domestic people and subsidizing foreign trade. China is also an export-oriented country, and its export trade is above everything else. If house prices don't go up and monetary pressure flows to export sectors such as textiles, electronics and machinery, it will really be a mistake for the country and the people, and it will be beyond redemption.