The main listed companies in the industry: China Heavy Industry (61989), China Shipbuilding (615), China Power (6482), CSIC (6685), CSIC (672), Yaxing Anchor Chain (6189) and Hailanxin (33). Focus on monitoring the output value of shipbuilding enterprises; Sales revenue of shipbuilding enterprises above designated size; Three indexes of export ships.

general situation of the industry

1. Definition

Ships are the general name of all kinds of ships, which refer to vehicles that can sail or park in water areas for transportation or operation, and have different technical performance, equipment and structural types according to different use requirements.

shipbuilding industry, that is, shipbuilding industry, is a modern comprehensive industry and a strategic industry combining military and civilian. As an important industry related to national economic development and national defense security, shipbuilding industry provides necessary technical equipment for marine development, shipping and transportation, energy transportation and national defense construction, and is an indispensable component of China's manufacturing industry.

There are many kinds of modern ships, which can be classified according to hull material, navigation area, power plant, propulsion mode, navigation state and purpose. Among them, the classification of ships according to their uses is the most telling feature, as shown in the following table.

2. Analysis of industrial chain

Steel, nonferrous metals, composite materials and marine auxiliary equipment are important raw materials in ship production, and any change of these raw materials will affect the quality and cost of ship production. Knowing the output and price trend of steel, nonferrous metals and composite materials will be helpful to the cost control of shipbuilding industry, and understanding the technical research and development of marine supporting equipment will be beneficial to the development of new marine products.

ships are widely used in shipping, national defense, marine engineering equipment and other industries, and are important supporting products of shipping, national defense, marine engineering equipment and other industries, and their product performance must meet the needs of these industries. The development of shipbuilding industry depends on the pull of downstream industries, but also restricts the development of these industries.

course of industry development: a modern high-level shipbuilding industry system has been initially established

The rise of the world's great powers all started with shipbuilding and ocean management. As a symbol of a country's industrial level, the shipbuilding industry has a high degree of industrial expansion and has the reputation of "the crown of comprehensive industries".

looking back on the development process of more than 15 years since modern times, China's shipbuilding industry has gone through the main stages of starting from ruins, opening to the outside world, striding over the world and carrying forward the past, from being riddled with holes to regaining vitality, from being in full swing to being thoroughly remoulded, witnessing the ups and downs of the times and engraved the eternity of rejuvenating the country through industry. At present, China has entered the ranks of the world's shipbuilding powers, and its international competitiveness has reached the world-class level. It has basically formed a modern scientific and technological innovation system for ships and initially established a modern high-level shipbuilding industry system.

industry policy background: the shipbuilding industry is transforming and upgrading to green and intelligent

according to the 14th Five-Year Plan, the transformation and upgrading of green and intelligent manufacturing in the shipping industry will bring new development opportunities for some new shipbuilding sectors with small and minority ship types, and the overall shipbuilding market in China will present diversified development except the three main ship types. According to the forward-looking analysis, the construction prospect of regional container ships, small and large LNG ships and offshore wind power ships in China will be good in the next five years; The cruise plate has benefited from the increase in the number of tourists after the epidemic and the influence of the construction of China cruise port, and its medium and long-term development prospects are bright.

At the same time, in order to achieve the development goals of "peak carbon dioxide emissions in 23" and "carbon neutrality in 26" in China, the shipbuilding industry must vigorously promote the development of zero-carbon emission ships, and at the same time accelerate the cultivation of new domestic demand for low-carbon/zero-carbon emission ships, and include liquefied natural gas (LNG) filling stations, marine hydrogen refueling stations and high-power charging piles in the scope of "new infrastructure" to provide support in terms of capital investment, operation and maintenance. Formulate support policies aimed at higher greenhouse gas emission reduction requirements in the future, implement a new round of old ship elimination plan and industrialization projects such as "Green Yangtze River" and "Green Pearl River"; Support the dismantling and updating of ocean-going, coastal and inland ships with high energy consumption and high emissions through the establishment of industrial funds and financial subsidies; Promote the application of new power such as LNG fuel, lithium batteries and fuel cells, and support ships to transform oil and gas collection systems and shore power receiving facilities.

current situation of industry development

1. The three major indicators of shipbuilding in China have grown steadily

In p>22, the shipbuilding in China was 38.53 million deadweight tons, up 4.9% year-on-year. New ship orders were 28.93 million deadweight tons, down .5% year-on-year. By the end of December 22, orders for hand-held ships were 71.11 million deadweight tons, down 12.9% year-on-year.

from January to July, 221, China's shipbuilding was 24.18 million deadweight tons, up 2.7% year-on-year. Orders for new ships were 45.22 million deadweight tons, up 223.2% year-on-year. By the end of July 221, the national hand-held ship orders were 89.67 million deadweight tons, up 18.6% year-on-year, up 26.1% from the end of 22.

2. The output value of shipbuilding enterprises will reach 153 billion yuan in 22.

From 214 to 221, China Shipbuilding Industry Association will focus on monitoring the fluctuation of the total industrial output value of enterprises. From January to November 22, the total industrial output value of 75 key monitoring enterprises in the shipbuilding industry was 341.1 billion yuan, down .9% year-on-year. Among them, the output value of shipbuilding was 153 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year; The supporting output value of ships was 25.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; The output value of ship repair was 14.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.

from January to July in p>221, the total industrial output value of 75 key monitoring shipping enterprises was 214 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year. Among them, the output value of shipbuilding was 93.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%; The supporting output value of ships was 17.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%; The output value of ship repair was 8.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%.

note: the number of key monitoring ship enterprises is slightly different every year. The number of key monitoring ship enterprises in 214-221 is 87, 88, 94, 8, 8, 8, 75 and 75 respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate is adjusted accordingly.

3. The epidemic situation of shipbuilding enterprises has a great impact

Different from the growth trend of other businesses in shipbuilding industry, the sales revenue of shipbuilding enterprises above designated size in China fluctuated and declined from 213 to 22, and the shipbuilding industry as a traditional manufacturing industry continued to be in a downturn.

in p>22, the sales revenue of shipbuilding enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 436.24 billion yuan, up by .6% year-on-year. Among them, the sales revenue of shipbuilding enterprises was 32.98 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year; The sales revenue of ship supporting enterprises was 49.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; The sales revenue of ship repair enterprises was 29.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; The sales revenue of ship modification enterprises was 3.93 billion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year; The sales revenue of ship dismantling enterprises was 5.43 billion yuan, down 31.1% year-on-year; The sales revenue of offshore equipment manufacturing enterprises was 43.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; The sales revenue of manufacturers of navigation AIDS and other floating devices was 52 million yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year.

Note: 1) Some years have different statistical caliber; 2) The year-on-year growth rate was adjusted according to the number of enterprises above designated size in that year.

4. The proportion of export ship orders to hand-held orders is as high as 88%

In 22, 34.25 million deadweight tons of export ships were completed nationwide, up by 2.1% year-on-year; Orders for export ships were 24.45 million deadweight tons, down 9.3% year-on-year; At the end of December, orders for hand-held export ships were 65.21 million deadweight tons, down 13.3% year-on-year. Exported ships account for 88.9%, 84.5% and 91.7% of the shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders respectively.

from January to July, 221, 22.653 million deadweight tons were exported nationwide, up by 22.4% year-on-year; Undertaking export ship orders of 4.312 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 219.4%; By the end of July, 221, the orders for hand-held export ships were 79.177 million dwt, up 13.7% year-on-year. Exported ships account for 93.7%, 89.1% and 88.3% of the shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders respectively.

industry competition pattern

1. Regional competition: the shipbuilding strength in East China is relatively strong

In terms of the number of enterprises, as of August 18, 221, there were 82,449 domestic shipbuilding-related enterprises. Most of these enterprises are mainly concentrated in eight provinces/provinces such as Jiangsu (234), Shandong (1156), Shanghai (844), Zhejiang (8417), Guangdong (7642), Liaoning (4513), Fujian (4249) and Hubei (279).

judging from the development situation, the current competitive pattern of China's shipbuilding industry is that the central enterprises, local shipbuilding enterprises and private shipbuilding enterprises are "three pillars". The central enterprise is China Shipbuilding Group Co., Ltd., while local shipbuilding enterprises and private shipbuilding enterprises are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, such as Jianglong Shipbuilding, Yangtze River Shipbuilding, New Era Shipbuilding and Golden Bay Shipbuilding.

judging from the overall operation of shipbuilding industry, according to the statistics of China Shipbuilding Industry Yearbook 22 in 219, the shipbuilding completion, new orders received and hand-held orders in East China, Northeast China and South China account for a considerable share of the whole country, among which Jiangsu, Shanghai, Liaoning, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces account for a large proportion.

2. Enterprise competition: the market concentration of the top ten enterprises has been continuously improved

In recent years, the market concentration of China's shipbuilding industry has been continuously improved. In 22, the top 1 shipbuilding enterprises will account for 7.6% of the national total, the top 1 enterprises with new ship orders will account for 74.2% of the national total, and the top 1 enterprises with hand-held ship orders will account for 68% of the national total. The trend of new orders being concentrated in advantageous enterprises is obvious.

in p>22, the competitiveness of China's leading shipbuilding enterprises will be further enhanced, with five, six and six enterprises respectively entering the top 1 in terms of shipbuilding completion, new orders received and hand-held orders, and the shipbuilding completion and hand-held orders in China will increase by one and two respectively compared with the top 1 in 219.

among the 11 listed companies in shipbuilding industry, eight representative companies are selected, and their business layout is arranged as follows.

Forecast of industry development prospect

Looking ahead, many countries around the world have started to vaccinate, the COVID-19 epidemic will be gradually controlled, and the world economy and trade are expected to gradually return to normal. With the recovery of international shipping industry and oil and gas industry, shipowners' confidence in investment has been boosted, and suppressed market demand may be released.

However, due to environmental protection policies, alternative fuels and other reasons, there are still many uncertainties in the future development of the marine market. Based on the development of the global shipbuilding industry, the age of each ship type, the shipowner's wait-and-see attitude towards LNG-powered ships with disadvantages, and the historical data of China's shipbuilding three indicators, the prospective analysis shows that in 221, China's shipbuilding completion is expected to reach 39 million deadweight tons, and the new order volume is expected to increase to 55 million deadweight tons, thus the hand-held order volume will further increase to 87.11 million deadweight tons.

from 221 to 226, China's shipbuilding capacity is expected to be basically the same as that in 22, and the new orders will fluctuate, and the shipbuilding completion will be flexibly adjusted according to the new orders, while the hand-held orders will be calculated according to the annual new orders and shipbuilding completion. It is estimated that the absolutely environmentally friendly alternative fuel power technology will not be applied to ships in 226, and the new orders will drop to 28 million deadweight tons.