Recently, the new concept has been sought after by the market. How to understand the theme of Great Innovation? Where will the investment opportunities be? After hardware, why does software become the main investment line in the computer field? Is the second half competition of new energy vehicles software? In this regard, harvest fund Teng Hanshu shared his wonderful views with you.
Teng said that under the theme of innovation, software investment is more worthy of attention. The new concept is expected to become the biggest main line of computers in 2023, and domestic software is expected to become the most beneficial industry, which deserves attention. Science and technology compete in chips in the first half, and software in the second half. The development model of "hard first, then soft" is gradually being verified in the great development of new energy automobile industry.
It said that the rapid market of new energy vehicles in 20-22 years is unforgettable. With the upgrading of batteries, the progress of hardware technology and the increase of output, the competition of car-making itself is becoming more and more full. New energy vehicles are also called smart cars, and software may become a new explosion point of income in the automobile industry in the future. The competition of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may be in software.
The following is the essence of the text:
1, harvest fund Teng: The domestic software sector deserves continuous attention.
Question: What is innovation?
Teng: Xinchuang is an information technology application innovation industry, referred to as "Xinchuang". As long as it is related to the application and innovation of information technology, all industries can be included in "new creation". The hardware and software services around the computer are two main components of the new creation.
IT infrastructure, basic software, application software, information security and other industries are specific components of new industries. Backed by the big logic of domestic substitution, innovation has become a major outlet for investment.
Question: Is the newly created market a flash in the pan? Can I still buy it?
Teng: At present, the market is dominated by big ticket and blue-chip styles, and the financial real estate has rebounded strongly, which has suppressed the small ticket and growth style to some extent. Newly created related sectors, such as chips and software, are all industries with strong growth styles, so they are affected. In addition, the newly created market rhythm is fast and fierce. For example, some time ago, with the help of new hotspots, the software quickly rebounded by about 30% in just 1 month, which objectively needs a period of rest.
However, this rebound also shows us the flexibility potential of the software sector, because the overall market value of the software sector is small, so the industry is flexible. Once the market rebounds, the rebound will be greater than the overall rebound of the market.
In the long run, under the expectation of strong certainty of domestic substitution concept, the future will be an era of innovation and great development. In the complicated international situation, the urgency of self-control is further highlighted, and domestic substitution is the core contradiction of science and technology industry in the next decade, which is unstoppable.
On the one hand, the new industrial policy will continue to exert its strength. On the other hand, due to the low localization rate of chips, software and other new industries, there will be more room for domestic substitution in the future.
For example, at present, almost all the auxiliary software for chip design and system design are from abroad, and the share of such domestic software only accounts for 0.6% of the global market share, so there is a lot of room for substitution. This process of improving the localization rate is a long-term process, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for new industries in the long run and deserves long-term allocation.
Question: What are the investment targets related to the new theme?
Teng: Domestic substitution is the core logic of innovation and development. Under the concept of domestic substitution, chips are of course a very important part of innovation. However, we believe that under the new theme, software investment is more worthy of attention. The chip hardware is directly impacted by the complex international situation, and the short-term uncertainty is great. Compared with the uncertainty of chip industry, software service is a sub-industry with strong certainty in new industries, or a breakthrough of domestic substitution.
Moreover, judging from the historical performance of the software sector, in recent years, there has been no such hot speculation as chips and new energy vehicles, which is a relatively stagnating sector in the growth sector. According to the market point of view, the new concept is expected to become the biggest main line of computers in 2023, and domestic software is expected to become the most beneficial industry, which deserves attention.
2. harvest fund Teng: New energy vehicles or software innovation in the second half of the year.
Problem: there are many industries in the growth trajectory. Relative to chips, 5G, photovoltaic, etc. Software didn't seem to get much attention in the past, so will software have potential in investment?
Teng: hard for three years, soft for three years, and the business model repeats for several years. This is the core logic of investing in technology stocks: the electronic technology industry has a hardware foundation first, followed by the rise of software programs, and finally the landing of business models. This is the order of industrial promotion and investment followed by the technology cycle. Hard as a hardware chip, soft as software.
The era of chip investment has begun, can software be far behind? In the first half, the competition of science and technology was in chips, and in the second half, it was the turn of software.
The development model of "hard first, then soft" is gradually being verified in the great development of new energy automobile industry. The rapid listing of new energy vehicles in the third quarter of 20-22 must be unforgettable. With the upgrading of batteries, the progress of hardware technology and the increase of output, the competition for building cars is becoming more and more full, and the prices of new energy vehicles have been lowered and cheaper many times. People gradually realize that the profit of selling a set of autopilot software is higher than the profit of the whole vehicle, which is the so-called "selling cars at a loss"
New energy vehicles are also called smart cars, and software may become a new explosion point in the future income of the automobile industry, which also points out the direction for us. The competition of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may be in software.
Q: What are the specific policy supports? How much influence does the policy have on the development of the software industry?
Teng: There are frequent policies related to the software industry, and the degree of policy initiation is high. 65438+ 10 In September and June, high-level officials kept mentioning topics related to digital economy, innovation and network security, which should be paid special attention to.
Since last year, there has been a very intensive policy orientation: in March, 20021,China released the latest Tenth Five-Year Plan, and the core industries of digital economy became the core new indicators of scientific and technological innovation in China. 10: the Political Bureau of the Central Committee focuses on the development of digital economy, and gives a positioning: the influence of digital economy is unprecedented, it is a key force to change the global competition pattern, and it has a high development direction of "cooperating with the great rejuvenation strategy of the Chinese nation".
Under such a tone, national special plans in the field of science and technology during the 14th Five-Year Plan have been issued one after another:165438+1On October 30th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for Deep Integration of Informatization and Industrialization, the 14th Five-Year Plan for Software and Information Technology Services and the 14th Five-Year Plan for Big Data Industry. According to these plans, by 2025, the business income of software enterprises above designated size in China will exceed 14 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of over 12%.
Policy attitude tends to be clear, and it is expected that policy will be a catalyst for the long-term sustainability of software investment. With the implementation of specific policies, it will open up space for the prosperity and rise of the software industry. The next five years will be a crucial period for the development of "great innovation" with broad development space.