Over the past year or so, the Federal Reserve has continuously released water, which has been exchanged for other countries' currencies and invested in local stocks, real estate and other investment products. The emergence of these currencies out of thin air has made imported inflation in some countries more serious, and global assets have been rising in price because of the influx of dollars.
In response to rising prices, some countries began to raise interest rates. The purpose of raising interest rates is to reduce the amount of money in the market and stabilize prices. However, raising interest rates has a hazard, which will reduce the liquidity of the currency and be even more unfavorable to the economic recovery after the epidemic is controlled. If we don't raise interest rates and let prices rise, the harm will be even greater. Therefore, in general, some countries have chosen to raise interest rates.
Now, the Federal Reserve has not stopped releasing water. They want to send dollars to all parts of the world, forcing asset prices in other countries to rise, and then use interest rate hikes to bring dollars back to China to complete a wave of harvest. However, many institutions predict that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in the near future is low. Personally, I think the possibility of raising interest rates is relatively low, because I also said in the article on March 2 1 that inflation did not appear immediately after the Federal Reserve released water in 2008, but CPI (Consumer Price Index) began to rise rapidly at 20 10.
The problem is that most investors do not believe it. Generally speaking, when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds will rise, and conversely, the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds will rise. Because more and more people are selling, people are unwilling to buy, and the yield of US bonds can only rise passively. From the perspective of the rising yield of US 10-year bonds, people will think that the Fed may raise interest rates in advance.
On the whole, our price has not gone up. In previous years, imported inflation did occur in our country, such as 2007 and 2008, 10, 1 1. To measure whether it is affected by imported inflation, we only need to look at whether foreign exchange reserves increase rapidly. In the above four years, domestic foreign exchange reserves increased rapidly, but in February this year, compared with 65438+ 10, domestic foreign exchange reserves even decreased by more than 5 billion US dollars.