The first thinking article
Qiu Guolu: Value investment earns money from two aspects: on the one hand, the undervalued money of enterprises, and on the other hand, the money of enterprise growth.
Qiu Guolu: Return to the essence of investment and be a friend of time.
Investment is considered from three dimensions: 1, and industry dimension: (1) Look at the business model of the industry. (2) Look at the industry competition pattern. (3) Look at the space of the industry. (4) Look at the industry threshold. 2. Company dimension: find the company with the best category. How big is the management radius. 3. Dimensions of management: ability and integrity.
Deng Xiaofeng: Thoughts on Market Value Investment in China
Value investment is not equal to long-term holding. Long-term holding must be a result, not an end.
Investment is for the future, not for recalling the past. The purpose of studying the past is to enable us to better judge the future, and then find enterprises that can continue to create high returns in the future and share the incremental value created by enterprises.
Investment should be a "three good" student, choose a good industry (in the industry, choice is more important than hard work, and choosing a good track can get twice the result with half the effort), choose a good company (excellent company) and have a good price (price determines the rate of return).
Zhuo Liwei: I understand fundamental investment
Investment can't grasp and understand N variables, so it is necessary to "restore" N variables to the three most important variables. Fundamental investment requires buying a company that has the ability to continuously create value at an appropriate or undervalued price, or buying stocks whose market price is far lower than the actual value of the company. 1. The judgment of enterprise value includes both actual value and possible future value, and future value is more important. 2, the judgment of industrial trends. 3. Systemic risk level. Instead of scoring 6 points on the variable 10 whose importance weight is unknown, it is better to score 9 points and 10 points on three important variables. Real investors should be like snipers, destroying an enemy every time they pull the trigger. More research is to make fewer decisions, and less decisions are to improve the certainty and gold content of decisions.
Song Qingrui: Industry Cycle Judgment and Investment Ideas
Top-down thinking, bottom-up choice. Top-down thinking is to define the scope of the industry from the perspective of macro-economy and industrial development, while bottom-up choice is to choose the target from the perspective of people and mechanism.
The macro-economic level is mainly viewed from two dimensions: first, structural changes, from a long-term perspective to find out the industries that benefit from economic development and continue to grow; The second is cycle reincarnation, to find out the most beneficial industries in the current economic cycle.
Investment ideas for growth industries: 1. From the perspective of supply and demand, tap the strong unmet demand. In the early stage of industrialization, the demand of investment-related industries showed the characteristics of rapid explosion, especially before lewis turning point, the return on capital was significantly higher than the return on labor, and enterprises maximized profits through continuous investment. In the late stage of industrialization, especially after lewis turning point, the proportion of labor in income distribution has gradually increased, and what kind of strong demand has not been met after income increase is the direction of investment. 2. The core of stabilizing industry investment is to find advantageous enterprises with clear industry structure. Excellent companies with strong competitiveness in stable industries can continue to obtain certain profit growth through the improvement of share and profit rate.
Feng Liu: The Core Method of Reverse Investment
A good business model meets the three requirements of predictability, predictability and imagination.
In the stock market, time is the least valuable, only direction and possible changes are valuable, so I don't pursue efficiency very much. Waiting for a long time has always been my experience and does not affect the return.
Wang Shihong: the main channel for investing in economic change.
The path of industrial upgrading: the gradual large-scale production of new products leads to lower prices and higher income of residents. When the income rises to a certain stage, making the price income more suitable, there will be an explosive growth stage of demand for some commodities, which will occur one after another according to the process of consumption upgrading.
Zhuo Liwei: Learn to do the most important thing to the extreme.
Learn to study the most important problem: to do research, the most important thing is time management, and the most scarce thing for everyone is time. First, time is everyone's only scarce asset, so we should study the most important problems (big problems, big direction, big probability). Second, continue to accumulate on the right path.
What is the most important issue can be considered through four logical frameworks: macro logic, industrial logic, commercial logic and financial logic. Macro-logic includes not only macro-economic factors, but also social thoughts, group psychology and even political and economic relations. Industrial logic, different industries at different stages of development, have different core driving factors and competitive factors, and their changing principles are also different from the past. Business logic, first of all, is whether the strategic layout and business direction conform to the macro and industrial logic mentioned above. Financial logic, finance is a digital and structured summary and record of the past business behavior of enterprises.
The Book of the Wise —— An investment idea that can stand the test of time
Introduction to Graham: Memoirs of the Godfather of Wall Street (Qiu Guolu): Securities Analysis Graham. 1. Graham's analysis method is more based on tangible things such as the company's existing assets, profits, cash flow, etc., and does not need a lot of pre-judgment on the market direction or insight into the future of the industry. Second, Graham's analysis method is based on financial statements and financial analysis that everyone can get, and there is no need for close contact and communication with management. He even thinks that many management will mislead investors. Third, Graham's investment emphasizes the margin of safety. The core point of the margin of safety is a sufficiently low price.
The Wise Man Volume II-Creating Value with Capital
Brief Introduction of 3G Capital Empire (Qiu Guolu): If you can learn from the best enterprises in the world, why start from scratch? The idea of 3G capital is to find the best experiences and practices in the world, and then follow suit and constantly improve. As time goes by, they do better every year than the previous year. This is a real learning organization with sufficient strength and depth.
The book of the wise-the source of happy investment
Introduction to Tap Dance to Work (Qiu Guolu): Every choice in investment is a trade-off. The competence circle itself is a trade-off. Unfamiliarity is "giving up" and familiarity is "taking". Avoiding fast-changing industries and complex business models is "giving up" and choosing simple business with sustainable competitiveness is "taking".
The second practical article
Qiu Guolu: Investment would rather count the moon than the stars. The key to choosing truly valuable stocks lies in two points: one is to choose a good industry, and the other is to find the most competitive company in this industry.
Deng Xiaofeng: Enterprises continue to create value, and investors share the benefits. This is the way of value investment.
Sun Qingrui: At the macroeconomic level, there are two dimensions: one is structural change, which finds out the growth industries that benefit from economic development from a long-term perspective, and the other is cyclical reincarnation, which finds out the industries that benefit the most in the current economic cycle. At the industrial level, in the growth period and stable period, with the increase of corporate profits, the winning rate of investment return is relatively high.
Deng Xiaofeng: In-depth study, and explore great opportunities from market cognitive deviation.
First, spending more time on growth-oriented and large-scale industries is a relatively high input-output ratio.
Second, when doing research, you need to go through the process from less to more, and then from more to less. Thicken the industry first, and then refine the research.
Third, track outstanding companies for a long time.
Fourth, the problem is the direction of research.
Zhuo Liwei: When we talk about companies, what do we talk about?
The essence of business:
Value: the income of an enterprise is a small amount of feedback after creating value for society.
Users: The scarcity of consumers' time (or attention) and purchasing power makes content and user operation key.
Technology: the progress of technology and technology is the most important driving force to promote industrial development, and data has become a new factor of production.
Time and scale: the diversification and diversity of consumer demand and the efficiency and scale required by enterprises
From human factors to organizational system ability;
Entrepreneurship is the driving force of value creation.
Learning, innovation and introspection are the most important qualities of entrepreneurs.
Turn entrepreneur's ability and personality into organizational ability.
The real core competitiveness is corporate culture and corporate governance structure.
The third growth article
Qiu Guolu: Summary of 22-year Stock Market Investment and Research Framework
There are four factors to measure the choice of industry: whether the industry leader has the first-Mover advantage, whether the industry has a high enough threshold, whether the industry has bargaining power relative to its upstream and downstream, and whether the industry has undergone subversive changes due to new technological changes.
Good company = threshold+growth