When you have enough accumulation, it is only a matter of time before you get out of the circle!

Recently, the explosion of popularity has received a message from a small partner: Do you know what "carbon neutrality" is? Why did it suddenly catch fire in the investment circle? Why didn't you tell me?

As an old citizen who loves melons, in fact, the popular fried melon seeds have also found a trend-whether you know it or not, "carbon neutrality" is really rising!

"Carbon Neutralization": enterprises, groups or individuals calculate the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions directly or indirectly generated in a certain period of time, and offset their own carbon dioxide emissions through afforestation, energy conservation and emission reduction, thus achieving zero carbon dioxide emissions.

Let's talk about the reason why this word doesn't circle. Draft of the "14th Five-Year Plan" deliberated by the National People's Congress.

From the above analysis, it is not difficult to find that the developed countries have generally experienced the "peak of carbon dioxide emissions", while the total carbon emissions of China are still increasing. Judging from the years to achieve "carbon neutrality", China is more urgent than developed countries, and the slope of carbon emission decline is greater.

In order to avoid global warming and protect the ecological environment, China's policies on carbon neutrality have been introduced one after another, as well as Biden's Green New Deal and EU's strategic plan.

It is the general trend to accelerate the establishment and improvement of a green and low-carbon circular development economic system. Investment is to find the right trend! In other words, under the background of policy promotion, the track derived from "carbon neutrality", such as environmental protection industry, has become a hot gold track.

At the same time, I would like to add that the current high-low switching style of the market continues. On the one hand, high shareholding continues to be weak, and on the other hand, small and medium-sized stocks are on the stage. At this time, the concept of the two sessions is very directional.

Citic Jiantou said that based on the combustion and non-combustion processes of carbon emission sources, we have constructed the realization path of "carbon neutrality":

1) increase the proportion of renewable energy on the supply side, build an energy structure with zero-carbon electricity as the mainstay and hydrogen energy as the supplement, vigorously develop energy storage, and ensure the balance of the power grid;

2) On the demand side, comprehensively promote terminal electrification, source reduction, energy saving and efficiency improvement from three sectors: industry, transportation and construction;

3) Improve the industrial process and adopt targeted raw material substitution for oxidation, reduction and decomposition of industrial raw materials.

At the same time, Everbright Securities believes that "carbon neutrality" has six major routes: source reduction, energy substitution, energy saving and efficiency improvement, recycling, process transformation and carbon capture:

1) Source emission reduction: Under the pressure of short-term emission reduction, the government may carry out supply-side reform through measures such as "energy consumption", and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is a phased sprint, which leads to further increase in commodity prices. Energy consumption per ton of products: electrolytic aluminum, ferrosilicon (steel), graphite electrode, cement, copper processing, caustic soda, polyester, yellow phosphorus, zinc, etc.

2) Energy substitution: the new energy industry represented by scenery, energy storage, hydrogen energy and new energy vehicles, as well as the whole industrial chain including the upstream and downstream, manufacturing end and operation end of the supply chain, will benefit from the pull of carbon neutrality on investment;

3) Energy saving and efficiency improvement: industrial energy saving, building energy saving and energy saving equipment will benefit;

4) Recycling: Recycling of renewable resources can effectively reduce carbon emissions in the primary production process, such as scrap steel, battery recycling, garbage sorting, solid waste treatment, etc.

5) Technological transformation: mainly focusing on battery technology upgrading, smart grid, distributed power supply, UHV, energy Internet, assembly, etc.

6) Carbon capture: It is difficult to reduce carbon emissions in some paths, and carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage may exist as a "bottom-up" technology. At present, the cost is at a high level, and the cost of different routes is 700- 1500 yuan/ton.

Changjiang securities believes that from the supply side, carbon neutrality needs electrification and new energy transformation in the energy field, and power transformation is more urgent; From the demand side, steel, chemical, building materials, transportation, construction and other industries are also worth looking forward to. It is predicted that in 2050, its carbon emissions will be reduced to the current 10%- 12%. Green buildings, new energy vehicles and industrial carbon capture are development models worthy of attention. From the market point of view, drawing lessons from the experience of foreign carbon trading, the domestic carbon market still has a lot of room for development, and financial derivatives such as carbon futures will be further developed.

When we see the investment opportunities and market prospects brought by both ends of supply and demand, we should be reminded by public friendship to avoid falling into the strange circle of "arms race"

There is a theory in economics called "arms race", which means that people are not prepared to deal with it in order to prevent each other from taking measures and causing losses. In the end, everyone fell into excessive competition.

While chasing the investment target, we should pay attention to the risk that the policy promotion is not as expected and the technology is imperfect, and fully grasp the safety margin of the concept of "carbon neutrality".

(End)

The above contents do not constitute investment advice for readers. Funds are risky, and past performance does not predict future performance, so investment needs to be cautious. Please read the relevant legal documents and risk disclosure carefully, and make rational investment based on your own risk tolerance.