The government work report pointed out that this year, 39,000 old urban residential areas will be newly renovated, supporting the installation of elevators, and the development of various community services such as dining and cleaning.
As an important task in "taking over" shed renovation, the renovation of old communities is considered an important step in "stabilizing investment" and "promoting people's livelihood" this year. It is also seen as a new opportunity for real estate and related upstream and downstream industries.
The renovation of old communities is also referred to as "old renovation", but it is two different concepts from the "old renovation" of old cities demolished and renovated in the past.
The renovation of old communities basically does not involve demolition, but mainly focuses on repairing and improving infrastructure and public facilities, while the renovation of old cities and urban renewal involves a large amount of demolition and reconstruction.
Kong Peng, director of the Sustainable Settlements Research Center of the School of Architecture at Tsinghua University, believes that the market space for the renovation of old communities may reach 5 trillion yuan, which can directly stimulate the upstream steel, building materials, cement, environmental protection and other industries of the traditional real estate industry, and the downstream home decoration industry.
, home appliances and other industries.
In addition, related infrastructure such as 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and the Internet of Things will also be driven.
"The renovated old communities should not be isolated islands, but should rely on new infrastructure to realize the networking and digitization of future residential areas, so that the architectural space can form an organization with synergy." Kong Peng told the 21st Century Business Herald.
Analysts pointed out that although this industry has broad prospects, in actual operation, it still faces practical problems in terms of profit model and social capital enthusiasm. In the future, joint efforts will be needed to promote it at all levels such as policy, enterprise, and society.
The "old and broken" old communities in the core area refer to "residential communities where before 2000, backward public facilities affected residents' basic lives and residents had a strong willingness to transform."
Old residential areas are usually built with funding from the government and units before the unit reform. Compared with the residential areas built after the housing reform in 1998, the public facilities are backward and the supporting facilities are incomplete.
According to preliminary statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are nearly 160,000 old residential communities across the country, involving more than 42 million residents and a construction area of ??approximately 4 billion square meters.
The market space for the renovation of old residential areas mainly exists in large and medium-sized cities.
According to data from the Shell Real Estate Dictionary, the number of recorded communities in the 20 key cities is 153,900, of which the number of old communities with buildings over 20 years old is 59,600, accounting for nearly 40%.
Looking at cities, the three cities with the largest number of old communities are Shanghai, Chengdu, and Beijing, with the numbers of old communities being 14,000, 5,200, and 5,100 respectively.
Judging from the proportion of old communities in the overall stock, Shanghai, Jinan, and Beijing have the highest proportions, accounting for 61%, 49%, and 47% respectively.
Old communities are generally concentrated in the old parts of the city.
Taking Beijing as an example, more than 80% of old residential areas are located in the "Six Districts of the City" where land is at a premium, and nearly 60% of Xicheng are old residential areas.
Old residential areas have small living spaces and poor environmental facilities.
Judging from the transaction data of Beike in the past five years, nearly half of the old housing listings in Beijing have an area of ??less than 60 square meters.
Among Beijing's old communities, more than 60% of the communities have no elevators, 16% of the communities have no central heating, and 20% of the communities have insufficient greening rate (greening rate is less than 30%).
These proportions are higher than the city average.
Shell Research Institute believes that Beijing’s old communities are mainly located in core areas with high location value, but the current poor living conditions have led to a greater decline in housing prices in old communities during the down cycle, creating a vicious cycle of difficulty in circulation and wasted resources.
The market space for the renovation of old communities also exists here.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has initially divided the contents of the renovation of old communities into three categories: First, maintaining basic supporting facilities, including the maintenance and improvement of municipal infrastructure such as water, electricity, gas, and roads; supporting garbage classification facilities; and installing elevators, etc.
The second is to upgrade infrastructure, which can be equipped with parking lots, activity rooms, property rooms, etc.
The third is to improve the contents of public services, such as elderly care, child care, cultural rooms, medical care, catering, housekeeping, express delivery and other facilities, and improve basic public services and basic public environment.
Research data from Mingyuan Real Estate Research Institute shows that conservative estimates require at least 4.54 trillion yuan to be invested in the renovation of old residential areas in China.
Sinolink Securities pointed out that as a work that "takes over" the shed reform and takes center stage, the old reform does not involve the issue of house demolition and resettlement compensation. It is more about repairing existing houses, upgrading water and electricity lines in the community and
Optical fiber and other infrastructure as well as improving surrounding supporting service facilities.
Although the renovation of old communities has a weak stimulating effect on overall real estate investment, it still has an obvious role in stimulating demand in related fields.
According to estimates by the agency, driven by the old reform, in the field of consumer building materials, the market space for waterproof materials can reach 23.6 billion yuan; the market space for coatings is 51.8 billion yuan; and the market space for pipes is 27.3 billion yuan.
Solution to “People’s Livelihood Issues” In recent years, the renovation of old communities has been dominated by financial funds.
Judging from current practice, in addition to central fiscal subsidies and local government special bonds, bank credit is also an important source of funds for old reform.