The medium-term loan interest rate remains unchanged.
On June 15, the People's Bank of China announced that in order to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity in the banking system, it would carry out 200 billion yuan 1 year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and 10 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation, with interest rates unchanged from the previous period, 2.85% and 2. 10% respectively.
In view of the expiration of 200 billion 1 year MLF this month, the central bank continued the "equivalent" operation in April and May in the "spicy powder" operation in June.
On June 5438+ 10 this year, the central bank lowered the operating interest rate of 1 year MLF, which represents the marginal capital cost for the banking system to obtain medium-term base money from the central bank. This is the first time since April 2020. On the same day, the central bank also lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate for open market operations as the short-term policy interest rate of the central bank. Subsequently, the above two policy interest rates did not move.
Although the MLF interest rate remained unchanged, the LPR formed by the MLF interest rate increase in May ushered in asymmetric adjustment. 1 year loan market quotation rate (LPR) was 3.7%, which was the same as last month, and the 5-year LPR was 4.45%, which was significantly lower than last month's 4.6% 15 basis points.
In the latest research report, CITIC Securities believes that the asymmetric reduction of LPR in May conveyed the policy intention of steady growth, and banks will make more concessions on medium and long-term loans, effectively reducing the financing costs of residents and enterprises and stimulating the demand for long-term loans. With the decline of bank debt cost, it is expected that there will still be room for downward adjustment of LPR in the future, especially for LPR over five years. (Source: This newspaper)
Headline in china securities journal: There is still room for "directional" support to increase RRR's interest rate cuts and RRR cuts.
What is the impact of unexpected tightening of the Federal Reserve and imported inflationary pressure on China's monetary policy? Will it lower RRR and cut interest rates again? What incremental tools will it stock? The year 2022 is about halfway through, and how to implement monetary policy in the second half of the year affects the nerves of investors.
Experts said that under the influence of factors such as controllable inflationary pressure and the spillover effect of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has peaked, the prudent monetary policy will continue to increase its implementation in the second half of the year, and there is sufficient room for regulation, and it is still possible to reduce RRR and interest rates. The incremental tools to deal with uncertain risks are pre-plans, which will create a good monetary and financial environment for stabilizing the economy and helping enterprises get out of difficulties, and keep the economy running in a reasonable range.
Internal and external factors are weakened.
Sufficient policy space
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the constraints of internal and external factors on monetary policy will be weakened. According to industry insiders, from a domestic perspective, prices are expected to maintain a moderate trend; Looking overseas, the spillover effect of the current Fed rate hike cycle has peaked. Generally speaking, China has a large room for monetary policy regulation and control, and the policy focus will still focus on steady growth, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and increase support for the real economy.
Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, believes that although there are structural commodity price pressures in China, including infrastructure investment or gradually pulling up the prices of industrial products, the supply and demand structure of some agricultural products is tight, but the overall inflationary pressure in China is obviously controllable.
"It is expected that prices will maintain a moderate trend in the second half of the year, providing space for monetary policy regulation. In addition to supporting structural policies such as small and micro enterprises to continue to exert their strength, aggregate monetary policies such as interest rate cuts and RRR in the third quarter may also be intensified. " Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes.
The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting in June, and market participants generally believe that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points. Will the Fed's further release of policy tightening signals adversely affect China's monetary policy regulation? Huang, chief economist of China Securities, said that the Fed's monetary tightening measures are unlikely to exceed expectations in the second half of the year and may gradually weaken before the end of the year. The spillover effect and influence of the current Fed rate hike cycle have peaked. China's monetary policy regulation should pay more attention to the domestic market, especially to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the process of economic recovery, and promote the steady decline of financing costs.
In addition, the impact of the upside-down spread between China and the United States that may be caused by the Fed's interest rate hike is also weakening. Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that the phased inversion of the spread between China and the United States will not be a constraint on macro policies. It is more important to accept the short-term spread upside down, and at the same time, domestic macroeconomic policies should continue to exert their strength during the window period, in exchange for a short time window for the stable economic growth and the stability of capital flows in the future.
Take measures to reduce financing costs.
In the first half of the year, measures such as reducing RRR, cutting interest rates, and turning over surplus were "killing many birds with one stone". How big is the room for reducing RRR and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year? Experts predict that there is still room for further RRR cuts to reduce the financing costs of enterprises, but this will depend on the economic operation.
Obviously, it is necessary to grasp the rhythm and comprehensively consider the factors such as credit demand repair, centralized issuance of national debt and centralized expiration of MLF after the epidemic is effectively controlled. "Around the end of the year, the above factors are concentrated, which may be a suitable window for RRR reduction." Clearly said.
Since the beginning of this year, both MLF interest rate and LPR have gone down. In the case that the financial management department has repeatedly stressed that it will continue to promote the reduction of corporate financing costs, people in the industry generally believe that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. Huang said that the MLF interest rate may be slightly lowered in the second half of the year under the background of easing the pressure of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and increasing domestic steady growth.
Since the five-year LPR is linked to the mortgage loan, the market is very concerned about whether the LPR will fall. Xie Yunliang, macro chief analyst of Cinda Securities, believes that the new round of decline of LPR may be the reform of deposit interest rate. At present, the liquidity and capital constraints faced by banks are not strong, and the reform mechanism will promote the marketization of deposit interest rates, which is expected to further reduce the debt cost of banks and create space for the downward adjustment of LPR.
Xie Yunliang further analyzed that compared with 1 year LPR, LPR with a term of more than 5 years is more likely to fall again. The reason is that the demand for short-term loans has not been weak since this year, and there is no need for the downward trend of 1 year LPR, while the downward trend of LPR over five years is of great significance for stabilizing mortgages and stabilizing expectations.
Incremental tools are planned.
In the second half of the year, in addition to making good use of existing monetary policy tools, we need to reserve incremental policy tools to deal with uncertain risks. In addition, structural tools may also set up or increase new quotas.
"Monetary policy is not only about reducing RRR and interest rate." Zhang Xu, chief analyst of fixed income of Everbright Securities, believes that from the historical experience, the planning of incremental monetary policy tools often exceeds the inherent cognition of the market. For example, on 20 14, the People's Bank of China set up a supplementary mortgage loan (PSL), on 20 15, set up a national special construction fund, and in 2020, launched two monetary policy tools directly connected with the real economy.
Obviously, there is nearly 1.3 trillion yuan of refinancing quota available this year, including comprehensive rediscount of small loans for agriculture and various special refinancing. In addition, new structural tools and new quotas may still emerge.
Tao Chuan, chief macro analyst of soochow securities, thinks that according to the past experience and the contents of "a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy", providing stable long-term funds for specific fields and departments through PSL is one of the directions that monetary policy can choose in the future. If the People's Bank of China restarts PSL, its investment will be used not only for shed reform, but also for other infrastructure construction fields such as transportation infrastructure.
Xiong Yuan, chief economist of Guo Sheng Securities, thinks that in order to supplement the possible funding gap in the second half of the year, or introduce a policy arrangement similar to PSL.
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