Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Haitong Securities (600837) released a research report saying that the average daily stock-based transaction volume in 2023 Q/KLOC-0 was 963.3 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year. 5 1 listed brokerage business income was +49% and net profit was +85% year-on-year. Their self-management rebounded sharply, and their light asset business was under pressure. All-share access of Internet brokers brought by Bian Xiao, I hope you like it!
The main points of Haitong Securities are as follows:
2023Q 1 the equity market picked up, and the trading volume declined slightly at a high base.
1)2023 q 1 The daily average stock-based transaction volume was 963.3 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year. 2) By the end of March 2023, the balance of margin financing and securities lending was 1.6 1 trillion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with an average guarantee ratio of 278%, and the risks were generally controllable. 3) 3) The pace of IPO issuance has slowed down, and the average fundraising scale has dropped significantly. The average monthly number of 2023Q 1 is about 22.7, which is 2 1% lower than the same period last year. 2023Q1* * issued 68 IPOs, raising 65 1 billion yuan, which was -64% year-on-year. In 2023, the average fundraising scale was 960 million yuan, down 54% from 2.09 billion yuan in the same period last year. 4) The rise of equity market drives the issuance of refinancing. 2023Q 1 the scale of refinancing has increased. 2023Q 1 raised 249.3 billion yuan, up 107% year-on-year. 5) The scale of bond issuance increased year-on-year. 2023Q 1 The bond issuance scale of securities firms was 2.7 trillion yuan, up 8.5 1% year-on-year. 6) The equity market has obviously picked up. 2023q65438+100000 A index rose by 6.47%; The total price index of China Bond 2023Q 1 fell by 0. 15%.
5 1 listed brokerage business income increased by 49% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 85% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2023, 5 1 listed securities firms achieved a total operating income of144.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and a net profit of 46.5 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 85%. 5 1 listed securities firms, Southwest Securities (600369)(+ 1796%), TF Securities (60162) (+283%), Caitong Securities (601. In terms of net profit, 1 1 brokers turned losses into profits year-on-year, and 18 brokers' performance growth rate exceeded 100%, including changjiang securities (000783)(+ 15 13%) and Pacific (60%). Only three brokers experienced a decline in net profit, among which Jinlong (0007 12) suffered a loss.
Self-management rebounded sharply, and light asset business was under pressure.
1) brokerage income decreased 17%, which was higher than the stock-based turnover. In the first quarter of 2023, the brokerage business income of 46 listed brokers who disclosed brokerage business data totaled 25.4 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, which was greater than-10% of the average daily stock-based trading volume in the market in the first quarter. The bank believes that the main reason is that the transaction commission rate continues to decline.
2)IPO issuance slows down 2) It affects the income of brokerage investment banks, and the concentration of investment banks remains high. In the first quarter of 2023, 46 listed brokers realized investment banking income of 654.38+006 billion yuan, down 25% year-on-year. The bank believes that in the first quarter, the number of IPO issuance decreased by 265,438+0% and the issuance scale decreased by 64%, which was the main factor that dragged down the investment bank's income. Judging from the amount of underwriting projects completed in 2023Q 1, the concentration of listed brokers is still high, with the top five brokerage industries accounting for 58%, an increase of 7pct compared with the first quarter of 2023.
3) The scale of fund issuance is still at the bottom, and the income from asset management has declined slightly. In the first quarter of 2023, the total asset management income of 46 listed securities firms was11billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year. After experiencing a sharp decline in 2023, Public Offering of Fund's new issuance share in the first quarter of 2023 was 273.4 billion, up+1% year-on-year, still at the bottom. 4) In the first quarter of 2023, the equity market picked up, and the income of brokerage self-operated business increased significantly. In the first quarter, the performance of the equity market picked up, with a cumulative increase of 6.5%, down 65,438+03.92% in the same period last year. In this context, the self-operated business of brokers has been greatly improved. In the first quarter of 2023, the investment income (including changes in fair value) of listed brokers was 51700 million yuan, compared with a loss of 3.4 billion yuan in the same period last year. The substantial increase in self-operated income has greatly boosted the overall performance of brokers.
Under the neutral assumption, the industry's net profit is expected to be +46% year-on-year. Under the neutral assumption, the Bank expects the industry net profit to increase by +46%, brokerage business income to increase by 7%, investment banking business to increase by 7%, capital intermediary business income to increase by 6%, asset management to increase by 65,438+05%, and self-management to increase by 70%.
The valuation is low, and it is expected that the α and β markets will coexist in the future. At present (April 28th, 2023), the average valuation of the brokerage industry is 1.5x2023EP/B, and the second index PB of CITIC Securities is 1.3 times, which is relatively low. Considering the positive development policy of the industry, the bank believes that the advantages of large securities firms are still significant, and the industry concentration is expected to continue to increase.
What are the leading listed companies in the concept of Internet brokers?
Oriental Fortune: the Leader of Internet Brokers
Oriental Fortune's quarterly report in the third quarter of 2023 shows that the company achieved revenue of 3.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of-15.62%; The net profit was 26,543.8+0.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of-65,438+04.24%; Earnings per share is 0. 17 yuan.
As a leading Internet brokerage company in China, it is also one of the largest comprehensive financial platforms in China, and its performance growth rate ranks in the forefront of the brokerage industry. It is one of the few fully licensed enterprises in the Internet finance industry.
The latest news of opening on April 12, Oriental Fortune has risen 13.08% this year and closed 15. The stock rose 1.88% to 22. 170 yuan.
On April 12, the net inflow of this stock was 33 10/00000 yuan, the net inflow of super-large single130000 yuan, the net inflow of large single180000 yuan, and the net outflow of single single1.
Optimistic about the two main opportunities of Internet brokers and Dali Finance.
Resumption: In the expected stage of economic recovery, big wealth management and Internet brokers led the gains. The leading target of the big financial sector began to rise obviously from June 2023 1 65438+1October1,and the core target rose by about 40% by June 2023+1October 3 1, and the driving force behind it was real estate. By the end of June, 2023, it was 65438+1October 3 1, and the brokerage sector had increased by 19%, with obvious internal differentiation. The main target is large wealth management and internet brokerage companies.
Under the background of economic recovery, we are still optimistic about Dali Finance and Internet brokers. The main reasons are as follows: (1) The long logic of the migration of residents' wealth to equity and net worth assets has not changed. Personal pension, comprehensive registration system and housing policy tone continued. The big wealth line fund companies contribute a lot to profits. 2C's characteristics, light capital, increased industry concentration, scale effect brought about the growth of the track, and the acceptance of PE valuation and spin-off valuation by market institutions gradually increased. It should be emphasized that cyclical factors still have a significant impact on the profitability and valuation of the core target. (2) Under the economic recovery, the surplus savings of residents are expected to accelerate the return, which is conducive to the simultaneous expansion of profits and valuations of Internet brokers and big wealth management targets. (3) Marginally, the market's concerns about the fee reduction of securities and funds continue to ease, while the refinancing incidents of traditional brokers are frequent, and the market prefers to ignore the main line of funds.
The continuation of the main tone of the policy is conducive to the expansion of the capital market and the migration of residents' wealth. The report makes it clear that housing is not speculation, personal pension and comprehensive registration system have been implemented one after another, and the logic of the chief financial officer has been strengthened. (1) In February 2023,1started the comprehensive registration system reform, which was conducive to the expansion of the capital market and the securities industry benefited from the system reform dividend. Since the pilot registration system of science and technology innovation board and growth enterprise market, the turnover rate of the market has not decreased significantly, and the turnover rate has remained stable as a whole. This reform stipulates that two financial indicators can be included in the first day of listing of new shares on the main board, which is conducive to improving the activity of market transactions. The comprehensive registration system is an important basic system for capital market expansion, and supporting policies such as subsequent issuance, trading, derivatives and long-term capital introduction are expected to be improved.
(2) The personal pension business is progressing steadily, which is conducive to long-term capital entering the market. In 2023,165438+1October 25th, personal pension was officially opened, and the leading cities covered 3 1 provincial administrative regions. Tao Qi, deputy director of the Pension Insurance Department of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said at the press conference in the fourth quarter of 2023 in Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security that by the end of 2023, the number of individual pension participants was19.54 million, the number of contributors was 6130,000, and the total payment was 142 billion yuan.