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Is it a foregone conclusion to raise interest rates by 5 basis points in May? Powell's "hawkish" speech led to a collective decline in US stocks.

On April 21st, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that in order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve would discuss raising interest rates by 5 basis points at its policy meeting in May, and hinted that there may be similar rate hikes in the future.

"I think 5 basis points will be discussed at the meeting in May," Powell said at an IMF event in Washington. Powell also said that in the minutes of the March meeting, a number of Fed officials indicated that it was appropriate to raise interest rates by 5 basis points "once or several times", and that it was reasonable to put the intensity of large-scale interest rate hikes in the front-end loading period, thus strengthening the market's expectation of raising interest rates by 5 basis points in June.

This activity is Powell's last public appearance before the interest rate meeting in May. The Fed usually raises interest rates by 25 basis points at a time, and raising interest rates by 5 basis points will be the first time since 2. Investors have expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 5 basis points in May and June, and Powell's signal is in line with market expectations.

Previously, Brad, the most hawkish Fed President in St. Louis, had begun to explore the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time, while Daley, the long-time dovish Fed President in San Francisco, also indicated that it was possible to raise interest rates by 5 basis points "several times".

Powell also talked about the problem that the labor market is in short supply. "(The labor market) is too hot and unsustainable." The task of the Federal Reserve is to bring the demand and supply of labor back to a balanced level. Economists worry that labor shortage may trigger a spiral rise in wages and prices, thus fueling inflation.

At present, the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve a "soft landing" of the economy through monetary policy, that is, to slow down the economic growth to a level that can lower inflation, and at the same time, it will not cause a large-scale rise in unemployment and trigger an economic recession. "I don't think anyone at the Fed will say that [soft landing] is an easy thing. The challenge is very big. " Powell said.

boosted by the strong financial reports released by many companies, the three major U.S. stocks collectively opened higher, with the Nasdaq gaining nearly 2% in intraday trading. However, after midday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a "hawkish" speech, saying that a 5 basis point interest rate hike would be discussed at the interest rate meeting in May, while San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daley even said that the Fed might raise interest rates by 5 basis points in the next two interest rate meetings. At the same time, two senior Fed officials made "hawkish" speeches, which led to the three major indexes of new york stock market changing from rising to falling. By the close, the Dow was down 1.5%, the S&P 5 was down 1.48%, and the Nasdaq was down 2.7%, a five-week low. On that day, technology stocks led the decline, with Facebook's parent companies Meta and NVIDIA both falling more than 6%, while Netflix, which plunged more than 35% on Wednesday, saw its decline narrow to 3.5% on Thursday.

The three major U.S. stocks closed down on Thursday. At the close, the Dow fell by 368.3 points, or 1.5%, to 34,792.76 points. The Nasdaq fell 278.41 points, or 2.7%, to 13,174.65 points; The S&P 5 index fell 65.79 points, or 1.48%, to 4,393.66 points.

Large-scale technology stocks generally fell, with NVIDIA falling more than 6%, Amazon and Qualcomm falling more than 3% and Google falling more than 2%. Precious metals, energy and oil and gas sectors generally fell, with US energy falling more than 6% and gold mining falling more than 5%. Aviation stocks rose against the market, with United Continental Airlines rising more than 9%, American Airlines and JetBlue rising more than 3%. Popular Chinese stocks generally fell, with iQiyi falling by nearly 15%, Didi dropping by over 9%, JD.COM, Weilai and Bili dropping by over 5%, Xpeng Motors and LI dropping by over 4% and Alibaba dropping by over 3%.

Nasdaq gave us an empty order of 14,27 yesterday, and the position with the highest rebound of 14,283 yesterday gave us an opportunity to enter the market with an empty order. The unilateral decline directly broke through our take profit point, and the standard hand made a profit of 31 points. Today, the short position is obvious. Observing the support of 1355, it is mainly bearish. Empty orders: during the day, aggressive short positions entered the light warehouse at 1386-1388, and steady short positions rebounded to 1396. You can make up the short positions at 146, with a stop loss above 1412. The target is to lighten the position at 1365 and leave all the positions at 1358. < P > The German index gave 1488 short positions yesterday, but failed to enter the market, and unilaterally fell to more than 1428 single entry points. The rebound in the day is still dominated by the trend. Empty orders: you can go short at 1436-1438 during the day, wait steadily for 144-1444 before entering the market, stop loss is 1452, and the target is to lighten the position at 1422, and all the orders at 146 leave the market < P > The Dow has stopped loss, and the daily level has closed down in four hours, and it is expected to close below the middle of the weekly line this week. We will take advantage of the trend. Empty orders: Aggressively enter an empty order in a light warehouse at 3488-3492. Take a good stop loss according to the firm offer. Steady can wait for a rebound of 3513-3518 to short, with a stop loss of 3526. The target is to lighten the position at 3458, and all 3438 will leave.