First, the earthquake is the first of all disasters.
Destructive earthquakes will cause direct and indirect harm and loss to national economic construction and people's lives and property safety, especially strong earthquakes will bring great disasters to mankind. At present, the average number of deaths caused by earthquake disasters in the world every year is 8000- 10000, and the average economic loss is several billion dollars each time. According to United Nations statistics, since the beginning of this century, the number of people killed by earthquakes in the world has reached 2.6 million, accounting for 58% of the total number of people killed by natural disasters in the world. In a sense, the earthquake is the first of all disasters.
If a big earthquake happens in a deserted place, it won't cause harm. If it happens in cities or rural areas, it will cause houses to collapse and even buildings and important projects to be destroyed, endangering people's lives and causing serious disasters to the people. 1976 Tangshan earthquake turned an industrial city with a population of one million into ruins in a few tens of seconds, with tens of thousands of casualties and direct economic losses of 65438. 199565438+1October 17 The earthquake in Japan caused 5438 deaths and the direct economic loss was as high as 1000 billion US dollars.
Second, why is the earthquake disaster in China particularly serious?
The high frequency, intensity and disaster rate of earthquake disasters in China are the reasons for the particularly serious earthquake disasters. At the same time, our people's awareness of disaster prevention is not high, and the number of casualties caused by earthquakes of the same magnitude can be as many as several times. In addition, the seismic performance of infrastructure in most cities in China is poor. In the first 20 years after the founding of the People's Republic of China, most buildings and projects did not consider seismic fortification. In addition, urban lifeline pipelines are criss-crossed, buried unreasonably, some materials are not strong enough, and some are in disrepair for a long time, which makes most towns in China vulnerable to earthquakes and has potential hidden dangers. The vast rural areas are mostly earth-rock structures, and their seismic capacity is even worse. It is estimated that if earthquakes occur in industrial cities and densely populated areas in China, the economic losses caused by earthquakes of magnitude 8, 7, 5 and 6 will be tens of billions, billions and hundreds of millions of RMB respectively.
Third, the current situation of earthquake prediction
Earthquake prediction, especially short-term and imminent earthquake prediction, is a difficult problem in the world science and a frontier topic in the modern high-tech field. Today, people's expectations for the success of earthquake prediction are far higher than the actual prediction level. Since the Xingtai earthquake in 1966, earthquake prediction in China has gone through nearly 30 years. After the hard exploration and practice of seismologists, it has made remarkable achievements and is in the leading position in the world, just like several developed countries. Many prediction results have been widely used in determining key earthquake monitoring and defense areas, national planning and economic construction. But at present, the short-term and medium-term prediction of earthquakes is still that some types of earthquakes can be predicted to varying degrees, but most complex earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted. This is the present situation of earthquake prediction.
Earthquakes occur in the earth's crust several kilometers or even dozens of kilometers below. At present, the maximum drilling depth of human beings is only within 12 km, so it is impossible to directly detect the focal depth. We can only indirectly infer or inverse the changes in the crust by arranging some geophysical fields, geochemical fields and earth deformation fields on the crust surface. Because of surface observation, it is inevitable to be mixed with "noise" caused by non-seismic factors such as climate, hydrology and man-made, which interferes with weak and valuable information from the earth. At the same time, earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above occur only a dozen times a year on average in the world, and most of them occur in trenches without precursor observation networks or sparsely populated areas, which makes people lose more practical opportunities; Strong earthquakes occur repeatedly in the same area for hundreds of years or even longer, which makes people have few practical opportunities to engage in earthquake prediction, and it is difficult to understand and summarize the regularity. In addition, short-term and imminent earthquake prediction will arouse strong response from people and society in a short time. Therefore, issuing earthquake prediction is a very sensitive social issue and a very complex scientific issue, which further increases the difficulty of earthquake prediction.
In view of the above situation, China's earthquake prediction research is still in the stage of empirical exploration.
Although the earthquake work in China started late, it has entered the advanced ranks in the world in earthquake prediction research. Long-term prediction has considerable credibility; At the same time, the earthquake situation estimation with the time scale of about 10 year has certain accuracy; The medium-term earthquake prediction accuracy of destructive earthquakes from several months to several years accounts for 30-40%; It is difficult to accurately predict the time, place and magnitude of destructive earthquakes within hours or even months. Only when some types of earthquakes occur regularly, such as small earthquakes before large earthquakes, and a large number of microscopic and macroscopic precursor anomalies appear before impending earthquakes, can short-term and imminent predictions be made to varying degrees; China's post-earthquake trend prediction has a high reliability, and it has been practiced in some earthquake-prone countries and has been well received by relevant countries.
In a word, at present, the medium and long-term forecast level in China is slightly higher, and the short-term and imminent forecast level is lower. It is believed that with the deepening of research in earthquake science and related scientific fields and the progress of modern technology, the accuracy of earthquake prediction will continue to improve, and mankind will eventually overcome the difficulties of short-term and imminent earthquake prediction.
Fourth, methods to reduce earthquake disasters.
At present, human beings can't stop the occurrence of earthquakes, and they are far from reaching the level of accurately predicting earthquakes. However, human beings can't do nothing in the face of earthquake disasters, and we must resolutely implement the customs of China? Quot Put prevention first and take the road of comprehensive defense ",and take the road of comprehensive defense of earthquake monitoring and prediction, earthquake disaster prevention, earthquake emergency, earthquake relief and reconstruction to minimize earthquake disasters.
(1) Earthquake monitoring and prediction
Accurately predicting the time, place and magnitude of earthquakes and making short-term and imminent earthquake prediction are the most economical methods to reduce earthquake disasters, and are also the goals that seismologists all over the world are striving for. For example, 1975 made a medium-term and accurate short-term prediction before the Haicheng earthquake with magnitude 7.3, which enabled the earthquake-stricken areas to take emergency measures in time and guide the people to evacuate their houses in time, reducing tens of thousands of casualties and economic losses of more than 4 billion yuan. 1988 The Regulations on Issuing Earthquake Prediction approved by the State Council clearly stipulates that earthquake prediction should be approved by the provincial people's government, released to the public in due course, and reported to the State Council at the same time. In areas where medium-term earthquake prediction has been issued, whether short-term or imminent earthquake prediction is issued or not, if obvious impending earthquake anomalies are found and the situation is urgent, the local municipal and county people's governments can issue imminent earthquake warning within 48 hours and report to their superiors at the same time. No unit or individual has the right to publish earthquake predictions, and no department or individual has the right to undertake and publish earthquake predictions involving other countries in any form. The earthquake prediction news obtained from informal channels violates the above provisions and belongs to misinformation or rumor. Don't blindly believe rumors or take unnecessary actions easily.
(2) Earthquake disaster prevention
Earthquake prevention and disaster reduction includes earthquake prevention and disaster reduction legislation, planning, seismic fortification and reinforcement of buildings, social insurance, earthquake prevention and disaster reduction science, etc., to comprehensively raise the awareness of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction of the whole people and enhance the ability of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction of the whole society.
The economic losses and casualties caused by the earthquake are mainly the destruction and collapse of buildings and engineering facilities, as well as the subsequent secondary disasters. It is one of the keys to reduce earthquake disasters to ensure that all kinds of buildings have corresponding seismic capacity. First of all, on the basis of regional and construction site seismic safety evaluation, we should do a good job in land development planning and important engineering construction, so that towns and engineering construction can avoid unfavorable areas prone to earthquake disasters, choose safe and favorable sites, and clearly stipulate the seismic fortification standards for major projects and other projects; Secondly, new projects and buildings should be designed and fortified according to seismic fortification standards, especially nuclear power plants, reservoir dams, water supply, power supply, communications, transportation and other major projects and lifeline projects. At the same time, it is necessary to do a good job in earthquake damage prediction, and take reinforcement measures for buildings that do not meet the seismic requirements and need long-term use. The city lifeline network can maintain the normal function of the city, and it can also make a city suffer from disasters, and there is no room for carelessness.
1994, the State Council put forward the goal of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in China in the future 10: "With the joint efforts of governments at all levels and the whole society, we will strive to make large and medium-sized cities and densely populated and economically developed areas in China have the ability to resist earthquakes of magnitude 6 or so in about 10 years." Seismic fortification and reinforcement are effective measures to resist earthquake disasters, and we should try our best to achieve the goal of "minor earthquakes are not bad, moderate earthquakes can be repaired, and major earthquakes cannot collapse" to reduce casualties and property losses.
(3) Earthquake emergency response
The practice of earthquake disaster rescue shows that whether there is an earthquake emergency plan or not, the consequences are very different. For example, before the Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8, there was no emergency plan and disaster relief plan. For such a huge disaster, the local government could not direct the disaster relief work. The destruction of the communication network caused the disaster area to lose contact with the outside world for six hours, and tens of thousands of PLA officers and men who were dispatched in an emergency were blocked by the Luanhe River, which destroyed the bridge pier, making the disaster area lose the most precious rescue time and greatly increasing the casualties of the victims. On the contrary, 1992 10, an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 occurred in Tianzhu-Jingtai, Gansu. Because there was an emergency plan before the earthquake and a drill was organized, the commander arrived at his post five minutes after the earthquake and quickly led people and materials from all walks of life to the disaster area. When the working group of the provincial sympathy group went to the earthquake zone, the wounded had been treated and the victims had been properly resettled.
The State Council issued Order 1995 172 and the Regulations on Destructive Earthquake Emergency, which brought China's earthquake emergency work into the legal track and ensured the smooth progress of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. At present, governments at all levels and relevant departments are improving the local destructive earthquake emergency plan. With the plan, no matter what sudden disaster happens, you will have a bottom in your heart, and you will not be in a hurry and be at a loss, thus winning valuable time for emergency rescue and disaster relief and reducing casualties and losses.
Earthquake rescue and reconstruction
The restoration and reconstruction work adopts the method of "unified planning, overall arrangement, highlighting key points and implementing step by step". On the basis of resuming production, make plans and organize their implementation, and do a good job in home reconstruction in a planned, step-by-step manner with good quality and quantity.
Five, how to do a good job of earthquake prevention and self-help?
Long-term publicity and education on earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in southern Fujian province has improved people's ability to resist disasters. 1September 6, 1994, when an earthquake of magnitude 7.3 occurred overseas in Dongshan, although the earthquake was strong and buildings were damaged, most people were able to cope with it calmly, reducing casualties. On the contrary, some places in our province were blindly shaken by earthquake rumors, resulting in a situation of no earthquake and no disaster; However,1the earthquake of magnitude 4.7 that occurred in Liancheng, Longyan on October 26th, 1992, 165438, caused more than 290 injuries, due to the lack of earthquake prevention knowledge and improper shock absorption. A little more knowledge and experience of earthquake prevention at ordinary times can reduce casualties and losses during earthquakes. Schools should make use of video to cooperate with education, do a good job in school earthquake prevention plans, hold earthquake prevention self-help exercises, clarify evacuation routes, and make pre-arrangements for earthquake prevention places and emergency items storage locations, so that teachers and students can learn to save themselves and help each other in times of peace.
(A) calmly respond to sudden earthquakes
1. Indoor first aid
As the saying goes, "you don't have to run for a small earthquake, but you can't run for a big earthquake." When an earthquake happens, it is very important to keep a clear head and a calm attitude. Only when you are calm, it is possible to judge the magnitude and distance of an earthquake by using the earthquake knowledge you usually learn. Recent earthquakes often start with bumps up and down, and then swing from side to side. Telequakes rarely have the feeling of bumping up and down, mainly shaking from side to side, with brittle ground sound and small vibration. There is generally no need to avoid earthquakes and distant earthquakes, because the earthquake damage in this case is relatively light and will not pose a threat to personal safety.
What should you do if there is a devastating earthquake and you jump off the building and escape? Facts show that this is not the best policy. The reason is that the strong vibration time of the earthquake is only about one minute, which is quite short. It often takes some time from opening doors and windows to jumping off a building, especially for people who have difficulty standing and walking. If the doors and windows are deformed and cannot be opened, it will take more time. Some people panic and can't wait. They broke the glass with their hands and broke their hands. In addition, if the building is very high, you may be killed or injured by jumping off the building. Even if you land safely, you may be killed or injured by falling things.
According to the survey results of Tangshan earthquake, the number of casualties caused by jumping off a building or fleeing ranks third among the six main forms of casualties (direct casualties, suffocation death, jumping off a building or fleeing, improper hiding place, returning to dangerous houses, improper rescue or nursing, etc.). After all, there are very few cases in which reinforced concrete buildings eventually collapse in an earthquake, and the complete collapse is usually caused by strong aftershocks after the main earthquake. Because reinforced concrete buildings have considerable toughness besides walking rigidity. This is why it is usually impossible for a main earthquake to completely destroy concrete buildings at once. Therefore, it is safer to temporarily hide under solid furniture or in a corner during an earthquake. In addition, you can also move to places with more load-bearing walls and smaller rooms such as kitchens and bathrooms for temporary refuge. Because these places have small span and large stiffness, coupled with some pipeline support, the seismic performance is better. No matter where you hide indoors for shock absorption, you must pay attention to avoid weak parts of the wall, such as places near doors and windows. Avoid the main earthquake and evacuate to the outside quickly. Pay attention to protect your head when you evacuate. It is best to protect your head with soft objects such as pillows and quilts. In case the building collapses, it will also cause some casualties to escape nearby, but the number of casualties is certainly far lower than that caused by crowding at the door when blindly escaping. The reason is that there will always be some dead corners or gaps when the building collapses, and this? Quot Living space is easier to form in solid furniture and small-span rooms. Therefore, relatively speaking, avoiding nearby can minimize casualties.
If you are studying and resting in public places, such as cinemas and dormitories in high-rise buildings, you should pay attention to avoid approaching the glass windows when you feel the earthquake. It is best to put a quilt, a satchel or a pillow on your head, choose a place with few falling objects and collapsed objects, crouch under a row of chairs, desks or solid furniture, wait for the earthquake to subside, and then evacuate to an open place in an orderly manner. If the house is damaged, it will cause dangerous buildings. It is best not to use the elevator when evacuating to avoid getting stuck in the elevator due to power failure or other accidents.
During the rescue of 1970 Tonghai earthquake in China, most of the dead were found near their homes, indicating that people were fleeing during the earthquake and were buried by collapsed houses, so they could not reach a safe place and could not struggle out on their own, and other earthquake cases were basically the same. Of course, if the earthquake happens near the gate or window, and there is no danger of collapse or dangerous buildings outside the house, you should still run out of the house immediately. During the Tangshan earthquake, some people who were located near the doors and windows and fled the building quickly and in time succeeded. For example, during the earthquake, a worker was resting in his workshop, only 2-3 meters away from the door. When the earth shook, he immediately ran away and reached the door, unable to stand. He struggled to climb the track 5 meters away. When he looked back, his workshop had collapsed into ruins. I'm glad he wasn't hurt. This emergency method of escaping from indoor to outdoor according to local conditions is not contradictory to the principle of avoiding nearby. Because the emergency department itself is aimed at men; Some people who have no time to run out of their homes, and these people are the main targets of possible casualties in the earthquake.
A cadre in Tianjin introduced his family's experience of adapting to local conditions after the Tangshan earthquake, which was very thought-provoking. On the night of the earthquake, he stayed in a bungalow in a grain depot in the western suburbs of Tianjin on business, sleeping in front of the door. He ran out of the house quickly during the earthquake. Although the roof collapsed, he was safe and sound. His wife and two children lived in their home in the center of the city. They were scared by the sudden violent vibration during the earthquake, and they dared not run out of the house and hurriedly hid near the furniture. According to the on-site analysis, if they had fled at that time, nine times out of ten they would have been killed by bricks in nearby buildings. When the cadre's family got together, he was filled with emotion. He said, "I ran out of the house and took a life. Their mother and daughter didn't run out and escaped the danger, otherwise we would probably never meet! " This example vividly warns us that indoor shock absorption, flying or hiding need to be adapted to local conditions.
2. Outdoor emergency
If you are outdoors in an open place during the earthquake, it is the luckiest thing. Don't take things or save people indoors at the risk of shaking the earth. According to statistics, people are most likely to be injured when they enter a building within ten seconds to one minute after the earthquake. For example, in the Yang Xiu 1979 earthquake in Jiangsu, 80% of the seriously injured and 90% of the dead were injured or crushed when they just fled to the door or were about to enter. Try to rescue your family, neighbors and classmates after the earthquake crisis (about one minute). At this time, even if they are buried under the rubble, you can still save them from danger.
When an earthquake occurs, glass fragments of high-rise buildings and concrete fragments outside the buildings will fly down. In downtown areas with dense shops, there are many kinds of falling objects, such as advertising signs, tinplates and neon red light frames. It poses a great threat to the human body. Protective walls, stone walls and earth walls in residential areas often crack and collapse, roof tiles will fly off, and chimneys may collapse to the waist. These situations should be fully estimated. If you encounter an earthquake while walking in the street, you'd better put a leather bag or something soft around your head. You can also protect your head with your hands when it's all right, and prepare yourself as much as possible. You should leave transformers, telephone poles, fences, narrow lanes and so on quickly. And run to a relatively open and empty area to avoid. If you are on a hillside or under a cliff during an earthquake, pay attention to landslides and rolling stones at this time. Never follow the rolling stones down the mountain, but run in the direction perpendicular to the flow direction of the rolling stones. If it is too late, you can also find a hillside to rise and hide behind for the time being. If you are in a chemical plant with toxic gas during the earthquake, run to the windward side of the pollution source. If the injured person is poisoned by chlorine, do not give artificial respiration at this time.
There were quite a few outdoor accidents during the earthquake. Bridges may collapse, urban pedestrian bridges and high-rise buildings may collapse, foundations may sink, oil depots may catch fire, reservoirs may burst their banks, and rivers, lakes and seawater may flood houses. Every earthquake is accompanied by endless secondary disasters. Therefore, we should take flexible emergency measures according to different situations.
(2) How to save oneself and help each other in case of danger.
Strong earthquakes often cause a large number of houses to collapse, which seriously threatens people's lives. During the Tangshan earthquake, about 80% people in Tangshan were buried in the ruins, and most of them escaped from danger through self-help and mutual rescue activities. 1983 1 1.7 An earthquake of magnitude 5.9 occurred in Heze, Shandong Province, where many houses collapsed and more than 20,000 people were buried in the ruins. The people in the disaster area quickly launched self-help and mutual rescue activities. Results More than 94% of the buried people and large livestock were rescued within 2 hours, and the survival rate reached 99.2% after timely treatment.
1. Please feel free.
People buried under the rubble in the earthquake may be suffocated by smoke even if they are not injured, so you should cover your mouth and nose with your hands, clothes or sleeves to avoid accidents. In addition, we should free our hands and feet as much as possible, and use our hands and other movable parts to remove all kinds of objects pressing on our bodies. Use bricks, wood, etc. To support heavy objects that may collapse, try to expand the "safe space" and keep enough air to breathe. Try to escape from danger when the environment and physical strength permit. If there is room beside the bed, window, chair, etc. You can climb under it or rub it on your back. When walking backwards, you should take off your coat and untie the belt with a belt buckle to avoid being caught by obstacles in the middle. It is best to move to a place with light and air. When several people are pressed together and the surroundings are easy to collapse, one person should come out first, and then escape one by one after reaching the safety zone. If the surroundings are relatively stable, they are most likely to come out together like a queue. Another method is that the person who escapes first throws a knotted rope or a belt with a rough surface that is easy to catch at the person waiting to escape, and then quickly pulls him out of danger after he is tied to his body.
When you are unable to escape from danger and save yourself, you should try to reduce the consumption of physical strength. The longer you persist, the more likely you are to be saved. 1985 one week after the earthquake in Mexico, more than 40 babies were dug up in the ruins of a hospital. There may be many reasons for this, but it is meaningful to adapt to the new environment, avoid unnecessary fear and panic, and minimize physical exertion.
During the earthquake and burial, try to find alternative food. As the saying goes, we are hungry for food. At this time, if we want to survive, we can only do this. There were many such examples during the Tangshan earthquake. For example, a child with a pillow is crushed in the ruins. When he was very hungry, he filled his hunger with sorghum flowers in his pillow until he was rescued. After being buried, a resident survived by drinking a basin of unplugged foot washing water under the bed. There is also a middle-aged woman who drank her own urine when she was very thirsty, persisted for more than ten days and was finally saved.
Under normal circumstances, people trapped in the ruins can clearly hear the voices of people outside, while people outside can't easily hear the voices coming from inside. Therefore, if you want to lie still and maintain your physical strength, you can only get good results by shouting when you hear someone outside, or knocking on pipes, walls and other methods that can be heard by the outside world.
help each other
Saving people after an earthquake, time is life. The statistics of Heze 1983 earthquake in Shandong Province are made. Within 20 minutes after the earthquake, 37.55% of the victims can be rescued, and the survival rate can reach over 98.3%. Within 1 hour, 85.8% people can be rescued, but the survival rate drops below 63.7%. If the victim is not rescued within 2 hours, the death toll of suffocation will rise to more than 58.6%. So we have to rescue people from the nearest place first. As long as someone is buried in the nearest place, they must be rescued first. This practice can save time and reduce casualties.
To save people nearby, we must first save young people and medical staff. Rescuing a young man is equivalent to adding a rescue force; Rescuing a doctor can treat and care for a group of patients as soon as possible. In addition, we should pay attention to saving the voices first and the easy ones first. When saving people, you should call first, know that people are still alive, and then try to save them. The purpose is the same as the person who saves first, so as to form a powerful rescue team in the shortest time.
When rescuing others, we should first determine the position of the head of the wounded, so that the head is exposed, quickly remove the dust from the nose and mouth, and then expose the chest and abdomen. If there is suffocation, artificial respiration should be carried out in time. It can help some people who are not seriously injured to show their heads, chest and abdomen, so that they can escape from danger, thus gaining time to save more people. Where the injured can't come out by themselves, don't drag, but try to fully expose the whole body before pulling it out. If people are pulled out of the ruins, if they are injured or sick, they are not out of danger. Even if they are not sick or injured, special care is necessary if they are buried for too long. The bleeding should be stopped in time, and the fracture should be simply bandaged. People who stay in the dark for a long time should avoid the stimulation of strong light after coming out. People who are hungry for a long time should not feed too much food at a time.
In the early post-earthquake rescue work, most people dug their shoulders by hand. If you use tools, such as shovels, irons, pickaxes, hammers, chisels, axes, sticks, etc. Be sure to pay attention to safety. Be more careful when digging people. Don't dig with sharp tools. It is better to dig by hand bit by bit. When some beams and columns overlap each other, we should pay special attention to carefully distinguish which are supports and which are buried obstacles, and give necessary support to the heavy objects above, and we must not make a move. In the process of excavation, special attention should be paid not to cause dust and debris flying, accidental injury and suffocation of the rescued. Water can be used to prevent dust if necessary.
During on-site rescue, the heavy objects on the wounded or injured limbs should be removed as soon as possible, and the injured limbs should be fixed immediately, so as not to pull the buried person to avoid causing new injuries; When lifting the wounded, one can't raise one's hand, but one can lift one's leg and twist one's body to avoid paralysis of the wounded. The wounded should be transported by bamboo bed boards and stretchers.
(3) How to identify earthquake rumors?
A person with certain knowledge of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction and scientific analysis ability can identify earthquake rumors, thus avoiding blind actions and unnecessary losses. Earthquake rumors are mainly identified from the following three aspects:
1. Is it scientific? Those "earthquake news" that obviously violate scientific principles and have a strong superstitious color must be earthquake rumors. For example, the statement that "an earthquake of a certain magnitude will occur somewhere on a certain day of a month" must be an earthquake rumor, because the current level of earthquake prediction cannot make such an accurate imminent earthquake prediction. For another example, the expressions of "local cattle turning over", leap year and leap month are obviously superstitious and must be earthquake rumors.
2. Whether it conforms to China's earthquake prediction laws and regulations and international practices. For example, the news "predicted by famous experts or research institutions" must be an earthquake rumor, because according to the relevant regulations of our country, no individual or institution has the right to publish earthquake predictions. For another example, the news that the Voice of XX or other foreign newspapers reported that there will be a major earthquake somewhere in China must be a rumor, because the United Nations stipulates that no country has the right to make transnational earthquake prediction.
3. Whether it is far-fetched or blind doubt. For example, some people say that weather changes or other abnormal phenomena in nature are the precursors of major earthquakes. Such a rumor is not credible.
In addition, if you hear earthquake rumors, you can immediately report them to the local government or the earthquake department, so that the rumors can stop at the wise.