As early as 2065438+June 6, 2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued the fourth 5G license to China Radio and Television, and China Radio and Television won the "golden frequency band" of 700MHz and 5G network construction. In May 2020, China Radio and Television and China Mobile reached an agreement to build a 700MHz 5G wireless network for * * *. At the same time, before the 700MHz 5G network has commercial conditions, China Radio and Television will enjoy the 2G/4G/5G network of China Mobile for a fee to provide services to customers.
2065438+00 On June 6, 2020, China Radio and Television was formally established in Beijing, becoming the fourth largest operator in China. Prior to this, 20 19 had obtained a 5G commercial license on June 6th, and was qualified to issue 5G mobile phone numbers to the outside world, and it also had very high-quality frequency resources of 700MHZ N28 band.
At the end of 20021,China Radio and Television revealed that China Radio and Television and China Mobile plan to build 480,000 base stations in 20021-2022 * *, and the two sides will complete the deployment of 200,000 base stations by the end of 20021,and build another 280,000 in 2022, so as to simultaneously promote the large area, interconnection and integration of radio and television's 5G core.
In recent two years, China Radio and Television has been cooperating with terminal manufacturers to develop and test 700MHz 5G terminal equipment. With the support of industrial partners, there are nearly 100 5G mobile phones supporting the 700MHz band, covering all high, medium and low-end consumers, which also laid a good foundation for 700MHz 5G to enter the market.
China Radio and Television has another unique skill that people are optimistic about: 5G Radio and Television is expected to create a new operation mode of cross-border integration and development. However, what ultimately affects users' choice is China Radio and Television's 5G package tariff, business model and signal coverage.
At present, the construction of China Radio and Television's 5G core network has started in many provinces, including Hainan, Hunan, Henan, Sichuan, Jiangsu and Guizhou. The southern regional node has also started construction in Guangzhou.
The main construction tasks of provincial nodes of 5G core network include the construction of core network user plane, the connection between user plane and control plane, and the interconnection with operators. The start-up of the core network node construction marks an extremely important step for China Radio and Television in the field of 5G commercial numbering.
It is reported that after the completion of the 5G core network, China Radio and Television will be able to carry 5G mobile Internet, industrial Internet, VoNR/VoLTE voice and other services. Not only that, it will also support the wide application of radio and television 5G in intelligent radio and television, ecology, tourism, agriculture, education, medical care, industrial Internet, high-definition video, NR broadcasting and other fields.
On March 3, 2022, China Radio and Television Network Group Co., Ltd. and China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd. registered and established a brand-new company-China Radio and Television Mobile Network Co., Ltd., with a total registered capital of RMB 20 million. Among them, China Radio and Television Group Company invested 654.38+0.2 billion yuan, accounting for 60% of the shares; China Radio and Television Co., Ltd. invested 8 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the shares.
After the establishment of China Radio and Television Mobile Network Co., Ltd., it will be a professional operation subsidiary of China Radio and Television, and fully carry out 5G services. China Radio and Television set up the main body of 5G operation under the idea of fixed-mobile integration, aiming at creating the differentiated advantages of 5G and forming a new development pattern of wired +5G integration.
Ceng Qingjun, deputy general manager of China Radio & Television Network Co., Ltd., once made clear the goal orientation of the development of radio and television 5G, demanding that the advantages of radio and television content and the supporting capacity of 5G should be fully exerted, and that radio and television 5G should be built into a mobile ultra-high-definition converged media communication network, an intelligent Internet of Things and a basic strategic resource network with distinctive cultural characteristics, core competitiveness, differentiated operation and safety control.
Specifically, through three aspects: new scenes, new supplies and new services, we will build a media communication network, a smart Internet of Things and a basic strategic resource network. In terms of new supply, we will build a converged media communication platform, live broadcast+on-demand+new content supply, so that the small screen can carry ultra-high-definition video broadcasting and television services, and the big screen can enjoy the convenience brought by 5G social communication dividends and smart applications. In terms of new services, we will build a new system of multiple intelligent services, take high-tech video as the starting point, and rely on the advantages of broadcasting and television 5G wide coverage and Internet of Things services to realize the expansion of broadcasting and television services from families to individuals and vertical industries. In terms of new scenarios, it takes two major tasks to create four application scenarios. On the one hand, it is a national information infrastructure and strategic resource infrastructure that combines "political use, enterprise use, civil use and commercial use". On the other hand, highlight the advantages of security and manageability, expand smart radio and television services, and undertake more network services and management such as national emergency broadcasting, monitoring and supervision.
In the long run, China Radio and Television should build a fully integrated business system of "mobile phone+TV+broadband+voice+satellite +X" and form a model of "smart radio and television+public * * * service", so as to achieve the goal of a platform enterprise integrating media, information and technology.
After the acquisition of the 5G network, Radio and Television will simultaneously provide personal user services and vertical industry services. In addition to personal communication services, while stabilizing its traditional cable TV services, Radio and Television will also focus on commercial development of various application scenarios based on 5G networks, such as ultra-high-definition video, Internet of Things, and intelligent radio and television. And launch 5G+ cooperation projects with various vertical industries.
The To C business of radio and television operators is mainly to expand its scale in the short term, and it depends on its own operational ability in the long run. At present, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom are relatively stable in personal mobile terminals, so the preferential policies of broadcasting and broadcasting number superposition will not attract a large number of new users immediately. Therefore, in the short term, there will be no obvious revenue growth of C-side business, and whether it can occupy a place among several major operators depends on the operation effect, service level and content quality of China Radio and Television. The B-side business has a large incremental space and can become the main breakthrough point of radio and television.
At the end of 20 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued network numbers of 190, 197, 196 and 192 to China Telecom, China Unicom and Radio and Television respectively, and China Radio and Television obtained the network number of 192 for the first time. In the past two years, China Radio and Television has continuously promoted the 5G calling test and actively prepared for the commercial numbering operation of 192. At the groundbreaking ceremony for the construction of Guizhou provincial-level nodes of China Radio and Television's 5G core network in 2022, China Radio and Television revealed that it will officially operate the 192 mobile phone segment on May 7.
After the large-scale numbering, the differentiated operation idea of radio and television operators: when the mobile phone penetration rate reaches 1.2 units/person, after the entry of paragraph 192, they can only compete with the three operators in the stock mobile communication market. Low price and cross-subsidy are possible competitive means for radio and television to enter the market in the short term, but in the long run, they will bring harm to the whole industry.
Radio and television should focus on their own stock, maintain and develop existing users, and expand users by using the huge base of cable TV users and broadband users. Under the impact of telecom IPTV/OTT services, the actual number of cable TV users in China decreased by 15.90% in 20021year compared with 20 15 years, but the total number of domestic cable TV users is still 20 1 10,000. China Radio and Television has a solid and reliable network system in the whole country, taking the family as the unit, and has certain advantages in customer development. At the same time, it is proposed in the planning of radio and television 5G that it will penetrate into mobile services in the way of "moving with fixed belts". According to Shanda's research statistics, there are currently about 40 million fixed broadband users of radio and television, and these users may become the first users of radio and television mobile services.
At the same time, the vast rural market will be an opportunity for China Radio and Television. At the press conference of the Third Session of the 13th National People's Congress in 2020, it was pointed out that there are 600 million low-and middle-income people in China, and the average monthly income is only about 1000 yuan. With the increasing coverage of radio and television 5G in rural and remote areas, these 600 million low-and middle-income people who are extremely sensitive to price will become potential users of radio and television.
Taking B-side vertical services as the breakthrough point: Due to the weak competitiveness of C-side services, China Radio and Television seeks to develop new scene applications based on B-side through the empowerment of 5G, so as to drive the expansion of B-side applications.
High-tech video has become the first scene of radio and television 5G landing B-end market. Relying on the traditional advantages of radio and television to provide audio-visual content, the interactive video, immersive video, VR video and other experiences born under the 5G empowerment will help the radio and television audio-visual industry to release more potential.
China Radio and Television Co., Ltd. is also cooperating with the head enterprises in the field of 5G vertical industries to promote the digital and information transformation of tens of millions of industries. At the 202 1 China 5G+ Industrial Internet Conference, Song, Chairman of China Radio and Television, said that 5G of Radio and Television focused on key areas such as media, emergency, police, power grid, port, manufacturing, agriculture and forestry, and carried out 5G+ smart petrochemical, 5G+ smart grid, 5G+ smart mine, 5G+ rural revitalization, 5G+4K/8K/VR live broadcast, 5G.
For the three major operators and China Radio and Television, the development of 5G networks and services seems to have a lot of space, but the reality is heavy. At present, the industry has not found the most promising application of 5G services, and the road of 5G changing society is long.
The 5NR broadcasting is the breakthrough point for China Radio and Television as the fourth operator to differentiate and develop 5G. Ceng Qingjun, deputy general manager of China Radio and Television, said at the 2020 Communication Industry Conference and the 15th Annual Meeting of Communication Technology that the 5NR broadcasting technology of China Radio and Television is the future development direction of 5G broadcasting. By integrating unicast, multicast and broadcasting, 5G NR broadcasting technology provides interactive video broadcasting services and converged information services to all kinds of 5G mobile intelligent terminals. Compared with the traditional functions such as communication and mobile cellular network provided by the other three operators, China Radio and Television's 5G NR broadcast covers the TV tower and cellular base station through the 5G core network. In the future, 5G universal terminals can receive 5G broadcast signals transmitted under the same wireless resources. There are two ways to realize this function: one is based on 5G cellular base stations, mainly using the 480,000 5G base stations enjoyed by China Mobile; Second, the 5G broadcast signal is transmitted through the radio and television transmission tower, mainly the central transmission tower, and the broadcast signal can be received even if the user's mobile phone does not have a SIM card.
In May, 2022, China Radio & TV will release the section 192 on a large scale, and officially start the telecom operation business, which will bring a brand-new business increment to China Radio & TV. We estimate the revenue increment that 5G communication services can bring to broadcasting companies in the next five years. Due to the lack of relevant provincial data, the estimation caliber is the sum of national radio and television companies.
On the one hand, it is assumed that the total telecom revenue accounts for the proportion of mobile communication revenue: according to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is 202 1.47 trillion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, and the mobile communication revenue accounts for 6 1.5%. We conservatively estimate that the future annual revenue growth rate will be 5%, and the proportion of mobile communication business will remain unchanged.
Forecast the market share of radio and television 5G communication services;
1. It is estimated that its market share will be at a low level in the short term: On March 24th, 2022, China Radio and Television announced the procurement project of 5G standard ordinary USIM cards. According to the announcement, China Radio and Television will purchase 5G standard ordinary USIM cards, with an estimated purchase quantity of 20 million. According to the statistical bulletin of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 20021,the total number of mobile phone users in China was16.43 million, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Assuming that all 20 million USIM cards are sold out, the total number of users will increase by 3%, and the market share of radio and television communication services will be 1. 18% in 2022. As the stock of personal mobile terminal users of the three major operators is relatively stable, the preferential policies of radio and television will not attract a large number of new users immediately in the short term. We expect that the market share of radio and television will be at a low level in the initial stage of entering the communication market.
2. It is predicted that its market share will be stable at around 10% in the long run. According to the above analysis, from the supply side, China Radio and Television has unique advantages compared with the other three major operators. The biggest advantage is that radio and television networks use 700HMz frequency, and the construction cost of its 5G base station is much lower than that of the other three major operators. At the same time, the 5NR broadcasting technology of radio and television will bring more business increment to its 5G business. This technology enables signals to be transmitted not only through the 5G base station, but also through the radio and television transmission tower, so that users can receive broadcast signals even if their mobile phones don't have SIM cards. After supporting the free mode, China Radio and Television will realize the receiving mode without SIM card, which will have an important impact on the traffic operation of the to C services of the three major operators in the future.
From the demand side, in the future, radio and television may expand the original 200 million cable radio and television users, fix the stock of broadband users, and increase 600 million low-income rural users. According to the data of China Information and Communication Research Institute, at present, the number of 5G terminals in China has exceeded 450 million, and the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones in newly listed mobile phones has exceeded 75%. As users update their mobile terminals, the penetration rate of 5G in urban areas above prefecture level will soon reach its peak, while county towns and vast rural areas will become more potential markets. Radio and TV 700MHz band has the advantages of low signal transmission loss, wide coverage, strong penetration and low networking cost, which is more conducive to giving play to its advantages in county, township and rural markets. Therefore, we believe that with the increasing coverage of radio and television 5G in rural and remote areas, 600 million low-and middle-income people who are extremely sensitive to price will become the main potential users of radio and television.
According to the research of Beijing Stock Exchange, after five years of differentiated operation, the 5G mobile telecommunication service of radio and television will achieve breakthroughs in the above-mentioned specific users, local areas and individual vertical areas, and its market share will stabilize. According to the latest data of 20021of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the market structure of 202 1 5g package users is: China Mobile has 387 million users, with a market share of 53%; China Telecom has 65,438+88 million households, with a market share of 26%; China Unicom has 65,438+55 million users, with a market share of 2 1%. Under the background of deep cooperation between China Radio and Television and China Mobile, it is beneficial for China Radio and Television to use the existing network resources of China Mobile to rapidly develop the 5G service, effectively reduce the operating cost of the radio and television network industry in the 5G field, and quickly acquire user resources. Therefore, according to the data that the current market share of China Mobile's 5G package users is 53%, due to the deep cooperation between China Radio and Television and China Mobile, low-cost operation, the application of 5G NR broadcasting technology and the gradual penetration of the rural market, we expect that the market share of radio and television will reach about 10% in the next five years.
According to the research report of Beijing Stock Exchange, the market share of China Radio and Television's 5G communication business was at a low level in the early stage. After five years' improvement of operation ability and technical level, its market share will be stable, reaching about 10%, and the corresponding revenue will reach121200 million yuan.
After the launch of radio and television 5G communication service, the market share is low in a short time. With the gradual improvement of operation ability, service level and content quality, the penetration rate of radio and television in the communication market has gradually increased, and the market share will be stable at around 10% after five years, which will bring hundreds of billions of income increments to the radio and television department. In addition to communication services, Radio and Television 5G has a large business expansion space at the B end. Therefore, although the valuation and business income of the broadcasting industry are still at a low level, its overall scale will achieve rapid growth in the 5G era, and its value is expected to be greatly improved.
In the future, the income structure of provincial radio and television network companies will undergo fundamental changes. Due to the lack of provincial data, we estimate according to the public financial report data of 1 1 provincial listed radio and television network companies.
On the one hand, the new income brought by the intelligent broadcasting service has begun to appear in the past two years. As the leader of the broadcasting industry, China Digital Media actively develops smart broadcasting and smart city construction. In 2020, customer service revenue accounted for 25%. However, more listed radio and television companies revealed that the winning scale of their smart radio and television projects has been expanding in the past two years. With the completion and commissioning of the project, the contribution of intelligent radio and television business to the performance of radio and television department will be greatly reflected in the next few years.
On the other hand, the company is also actively investing in the construction of 5G services. It is estimated that the revenue growth of 5G communication services will be reflected in 2~3 years. According to the above estimated revenue increment of broadcasting and television's 5G communication business in the next five years, we conservatively estimate that the proportion of communication business revenue of listed companies in the national revenue is about 52.84% (refer to the proportion of cable TV network revenue of listed companies in 2020), and the traditional revenue scale of broadcasting and television remains unchanged, only considering the revenue of 5G communication business. It is estimated that by 2026, the new business income of listed companies will exceed the traditional business income, accounting for more than half. However, if we consider the accelerated landing of smart radio and television in the future and the broad application scenarios of 5G, the new income it brings is expected to make the new business income of radio and television exceed the traditional business income in 2024-2025.
Taking listed companies as the first mode, the whole radio and television department will gradually form a new income structure. In the future, the income brought by traditional businesses, such as TV maintenance fees, will continue to decrease; With the gradual scale of new business, the proportion of new business income of listed companies is expected to be more than half in the next five years.
At present, the main business income of 1 1 provincial listed radio and television network companies is still mainly cable TV network income. During the period of 20 17-2020, the scale of total income decreased, fluctuating in the range of 50 billion yuan on average. Among them, Oriental Pearl, China Digital Media, Radio and Television Media and other companies have a wide range of businesses, covering cultural tourism, real estate (Oriental Pearl, accounting for 24.52% of revenue), group customer integration project income (China Digital Media, accounting for 25.02% of revenue), and advertising planning and production agency income (Radio and Television Media, accounting for 58. 15).
According to the research of Beijing Stock Exchange, in 2020, the cable TV network revenue of listed companies in radio and television department will be about 40 billion yuan.
The development of intelligent broadcasting and 5G services will significantly change its income structure. On the one hand, the new revenue of intelligent radio and television business began to appear in the past two years. With the entry of intelligent radio and television, the number of customer service projects of various radio and television companies has greatly increased. Because the project construction needs a certain period, and the services purchased by the government are generally longer, the contribution of smart radio and television to performance will gradually emerge in the next few years. As the leader and vanguard of the broadcasting industry, such as gehuayouxian, China Digital Media, Oriental Pearl, etc. The results of their business transformation have been reflected in the income level. Take China Digital Media as an example. According to the data of 20021semi-annual report, after the company completed major asset restructuring, the total revenue of smart city business such as interactive TV and internet TV and national new media business accounted for more than half, and the revenue of cable TV network-related business accounted for less than half. The Group's customer integration project revenue increased by 56.24% year-on-year, mainly due to the promotion of digital reform in Zhejiang Province, and the company's smart city related integration projects increased.
The increment of intelligent radio and television business of radio and television companies will be clearly reflected in the next two years. Taking the radio and television network as an example, its new gathering project in the first half of 20021covers five aspects:
1, 4 newly-won discerning engineering projects with a total contract value of 654.38+76 million yuan;
2. Add 18 comprehensive video networking projects in urban counties, with a total contract value of 30 million yuan;
3. Add safe community projects 193, with a total of 360;
4. Newly signed 8 emergency broadcasting projects, covering 500 administrative villages, and 32 1 0,000 public address terminals have been built and put into use;
5. 29 new smart business projects were signed, involving smart education, smart urban management, digital governance and other fields.
As a representative smart radio and television business with the widest coverage and the longest construction period, the business income increment of the discerning project began to appear in the past two years. By the end of 2020, the radio and television network has completed the construction of 17 discerning project. In 2020, the business income of discerning project was 307 million yuan, an increase of 207 million yuan over the previous year. However, in the first half of 200212002, the revenue of the discerning engineering business was 206 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 342.49%. In the same period, the company's total revenue was 65.438+37.2 million yuan, so the revenue of the discerning project accounted for 65.438+0.5% of the total revenue.
It's not just a project with an eye for pearls. In the next few years, with the expansion of the bidding scale of smart radio and television projects and the completion and commissioning of the projects, the contribution of smart radio and television services to the performance of radio and television departments will also be greatly reflected.
On the other hand, the revenue increment of radio and television 5G business will appear in 2~3 years: according to previous estimates, the market share of radio and television mobile telecommunication business will be stable at around 10% after 5 years, bringing hundreds of billions of revenue increments to the radio and television department. In addition to communication services, Radio and Television 5G has a large business expansion space at the B end. Judging from the annual reports of listed radio and television network companies, they have all disclosed the progress of radio and television 5G related businesses, and it is expected that there will be a large income growth in the next 2-3 years. Taking gehuayouxian as an example, as the vanguard of the radio and television department, it will take the lead in realizing the operation of 5G numbering in 2022.
According to an exclusive interview with Guo, chairman of gehuayouxian, China Radio and Television News and Publicity Center, gehuayouxian has a clear time plan for the 5G numbering work:
Business hall construction: strive to transform and upgrade gehuayouxian Xiaojieqiao business hall into China Radio and Television 5G flagship business hall before the end of April;
Marketing: It is planned to complete the white paper and marketing manual of local products in mid-March; In April, the brand logo update and marketing preheating were completed step by step; Complete product and marketing training in mid-April and product and system operation training in mid-May; At the beginning of May, it has the ability to launch 5G mobile packages and fixed-mobile integration packages in electronic channels; In May, sales preparations for mobile phones and 5G wearable terminals in 20 business halls were completed; Before the end of May, the pilot project of power grid transformation will be started, the marketing unit will sink, the index assessment will move down, and all-staff marketing will be started to ensure the completion of users' annual development goals. The 5G network construction of other radio and television companies is also in full swing.
It is estimated that the new business income of listed radio and television network companies will soon exceed the traditional business income, accounting for more than half. According to the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television's Statistical Bulletin of the National Radio and Television Industry in 2020, the national cable TV network revenue in 2020 will be 75.698 billion yuan. 1 1 The cable TV network revenue of listed companies is about 40 billion yuan, accounting for 52.84% of the national income. Assuming that in the future, 1 1 listed companies will also account for 52.84% of the national income, and at the same time, relying on the innovation of broadcasting technology and content to stabilize the cable TV business, its traditional business income can remain unchanged.
Regardless of the expansion income of smart broadcasting and 5G services, it is estimated that by 2026, the income from new business will exceed that from traditional business, accounting for more than half. However, if we consider the accelerated landing of smart radio and television in the future and the broad application scenarios of 5G, the new income it brings is expected to make the new business income of radio and television exceed the traditional business income in 2024-2025.
According to the annual strategy report of Beijing Stock Exchange in 2022, among the media sub-industries, radio and television have the greatest flexibility because they are the first to clear the market. At present, the broadcasting business is entering a period of deep transformation, and the fundamentals have undergone profound changes. Dual driving forces bring business expansion and performance flexibility.
On the one hand, the concept of smart radio and television has gradually landed, which is closely integrated with rural revitalization and digital rural construction, making the TO B/G business of the radio and television department continuously innovate and expand, significantly increasing the revenue of the gathering plate;
On the other hand, the broadcasting and television 5G is officially commercialized, and the market share of traditional communication is gradually expanded. At the same time, the B-side business has a broader revenue growth space.
Radio and Television Network 1 1 Among the listed companies: gehuayouxian, Guiguang Network, Radio and Television Network, China Digital Media, Radio and Television Media, Hubei Radio and Television, Guangxi Radio and Television, Tianwei Video, Oriental Pearl, Jiangsu Cable and Jishi Media, according to the integration participation and business transformation speed of the State Grid,
1. Participating in the integration of State Grid: gehuayouxian invested in shares, and the remaining 10 companies invested in cash to form China Radio and Television Network Company. At present, State Grid has integrated all unlisted provincial radio and television network companies. According to the Implementation Plan of National CATV Network Integration and Development, the next step will be to further integrate 1 1 listed provincial radio and television network companies. When China Radio and Television Network Company was established in 2020, gehuayouxian announced that Guang Bei Media, its controlling shareholder, would participate in the establishment of a national network joint-stock company with a consideration of 5 1% or 19.09% holding 37.42% of gehuayouxian. As a minority shareholder of the company, it has the right to nominate at least one director of the company. The remaining 10 listed companies issued announcements and contributed in cash. Among them, companies such as Oriental Pearl, Jiangsu Cable and China Digital Media invested 500 million yuan with their own funds to set up State Grid Corporation, holding 0.4945438+0% equity of China Radio and Television; Guiguang Network, Jishi Media, Guangxi Radio and Television, Radio and Television Network, Tianwei Video and Hubei Radio and Television all plan to invest 200 million yuan and hold 0. 1976% equity of China Radio and Television.
2. Speed of business transformation: Under the background of the construction of radio and television 5G and smart radio and television, some companies that have accelerated transformation and upgrading and occupied the first-Mover advantage conform to the development trend of radio and television 5G and smart radio and television industry, and continue to explore innovative application scenarios of B-side and G-side, which is expected to occupy the first-Mover advantage in the process of rapid landing of 5G and continuous promotion of national grid integration.