Let's ask a simple question first: What is the stock market? It's ridiculous to ask this question. What else is there in the stock market? It is said that it is not absurd that there is only God in the world, and God itself does not exist. I have been in the stock market for many years, but I really don't know what the stock market is. Presumably, everyone has their own views on the stock market from different angles. Economists say that the stock market is a barometer of the economy. Then, if the economy is good, will the stock market be good? Not really. In the heyday of China's economic growth, the stock market took a long-term bear market. As we analyzed in the article before, the American economy is in a financial crisis, but the stock market is in a long-term bull market. The American economy has been L-shaped for 30 years, and the stock market has risen by 13 times!

How does the L-shaped economy affect the stock market? "Authorities" did not give a clear answer, but shareholders have wiped their feet and run away, entering the second era. In fact, the L-shaped economy is not unusual, and most major countries in the world (such as the United States) have experienced this stage. Because in theory, no country can maintain the rapid growth of GDP for a long time. But if the economy is L-shaped, will the stock market really remain a bear market? Perhaps we can be less pessimistic after reading the data of American economy and stock market performance.

1985 to 20 15, the American economy is L-shaped, and the stock market is slow. 65438-0984, the nominal GDP growth rate of the United States is 1 1. 1%. From 1985 to 2005, the average nominal GDP growth rate in the United States was 5.78%. From 2006 to 20 15, the average nominal GDP growth rate in the United States was 3.23%. From 1985 to 20 15, the American economy experienced two L-shapes. The stock market is taking a long-term bull market of continuous innovation. Obviously, the statement that the stock market is an economic barometer is a false proposition in both China and the United States. Now, some market participants hold high the banner of "barometer" and think that "authoritative people" have made it clear that China's economy is now going L-shaped, and this situation will continue for several years. Then, the stock market will also go out of the L-shape synchronously with the economy. The economy can go L-shaped, but can the stock market? Common sense tells us that the stock market fluctuates, either up or down, or n-type or v-type; Either it's inverted U-shaped, and you can't get out of a so-called L-shaped sideways for a long time. So, what kind of economic L-shaped stock market should it be? Now that the "authoritative person" has clearly indicated that China's economy is going L-shaped, and this trend will continue for several years, this denies the view that the economy is going U-shaped or V-shaped. How much impact will this have on the stock market?

From the beginning, the general expectation of this year's economic trend was L-shaped, but some data in the first quarter should be said to have exceeded expectations, so there was a U-shaped or even V-shaped statement. Some time ago, the prices of real estate, pork and upstream raw materials rose, and the commodity futures market was hot. At the same time, it also drove the stock market to rebound to 3000 points, all of which were based on the successful turning point of economic soft landing. Later, the "authoritative person" said: "It is necessary to clarify the policy orientation of the stock market, foreign exchange market and property market, that is, to return to their respective functional orientations and respect their respective development laws, which cannot be simply used as a means to maintain growth." The market only respects "authority", so the housing market, stock market and futures market will also fall. This gives people the impression that the "barometer" function of China stock market has been restored. Has it really recovered? Let's make a simple analysis.

As we have analyzed before, China stock market failed to play the role of "barometer" of China's economic growth. The reason is that the expansion of China stock market is too fast and too fierce, but the capital can't keep up with the pace of expansion. The life cycle of listed companies in China is very short. The major shareholders are short-sighted, aiming to fatten themselves up for listing.

The American stock market failed to act as a "barometer" of economic growth, but the L-shaped economy can get out of the long-term bull market. The main reason is that the American economy does not adopt the supply side, but adopts "all factors". The so-called "total factor" means: productivity refers to the ratio of output to total factor input; The sources of TFP include technological progress, organizational innovation, specialization and production innovation. The part where the output growth rate exceeds the factor input growth rate is the total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate. Simply put, the same production factors (capital/labor/land), but the output has increased, the quality has improved, and the efficiency has improved. The investment of 1 USD is higher than the previous return. In other words, the net profit rate has increased, and the net profit and gold content generated by the GDP of $65,438 +0 are higher. This shows that we should bid farewell to traditional industries, realize economic growth with high technology and new technology, and pursue quality rather than quantity. At present, China is "de-capacity, de-inventory, de-leverage, cost reduction and short-board", aiming at improving total factor productivity and realizing economic transformation through scientific and technological innovation. If the transition goes smoothly, the "L-shaped economy" will suffer in the short term and be happy in the long term. What will be the rational trend of the stock market under the background of economic L-shaped confirmation? Economic L-shape is a brand-new topic for the stock market. It is necessary for us to deeply study what kind of performance and characteristics the stock market will have at this stage. Of course, there will be no big bull market. We have repeatedly stressed that the 20 16 stock market is neither a bull market nor a bear market, but a monkey market, which is characterized by jumping up and down. It is characterized by an N-shape or an inverted N-shape, that is, a box running form with 2638 points as the bottom, 3200 points as the top and hundreds of points. From Zhang Yun Finance!