From the shock at the beginning of the week to the end of the weekend, this market is just like the previous shock at the 1400 mark. Everyone has a strong bullish atmosphere, because the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates has always been a strong bullish support point. Then let's briefly talk about the environment in which the Federal Reserve cut interest rates today and its impact on the future trend of gold. First of all, we all acquiesce that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, including Kaifeng. What is the difference between cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points? 25 basis points is only a small adjustment to the American economy, which shows that the American economy is still relatively stable and recovering continuously. The current interest rate cut is just a routine means. If there will be continuous interest rate cuts in the future, it means that it is already a negative trend in the long run. The 50 basis point interest rate cut shows that the recovery of American economy is not as simple as we thought. After the interest rate hike, the US economy is far from achieving the purpose of the Fed's interest rate hike, and such extreme measures will only be taken when uncontrollable factors appear, so this will have a great negative impact on the US dollar and gold. So that's the real difference.
Powell's speech followed the minutes of the Fed meeting. If we only cut interest rates by 25 basis points, then the next speech is very important. We need to get information from the speech whether we will continue to cut interest rates later, and it is possible to cut interest rates many times during the year. Powell has always been a relatively dovish camp. The continuous interest rate cuts show that the current US economy is still grim, and there will also be situations that are of great benefit to gold. If the latter directly cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, then I don't need to say that everyone can think of the latter situation. This is the difference between cutting interest rates by 25 points and 50 points, and it is also what we need to pay attention to after buying you. Kaifeng personally believes that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time, which will be less than the market expectation of 50 basis points. However, Powell's speech may be more inclined to continue to cut interest rates later, so the golden probability will be a bottoming out, so the point that needs attention now is whether the support here can support us.
In addition to the minutes of the Fed meeting, we also need to pay attention to the big non-agricultural data next Friday. The message of the data will be given in due course. Of course, our primary concern is the minutes of the Fed meeting. Technically, gold bulls still have great technical advantages in the short term. In the two-month upward trend, the recent consolidation can be considered as a normal adjustment, just as gold oscillated around the range of 1386- 1423 for several weeks before breaking through the position of 145 1, and finally soared to 145438+0. The rest depends on the impact of the announcement of the minutes of the Fed meeting on gold. Kaifeng also said before that if the data is released by 25 basis points, gold is likely to fall directly and break through the integer mark of 1400, and the support level below needs to look at 1386 and 1380, and only when it falls below 1000 bears will it have a chance to turn over. On the other hand, if the market is unmoved after the announcement of 25 basis points, then you can consider directly arranging more than one entry and waiting for Powell's speech half an hour later. It is very likely that the market will smash again during Powell's speech, making gold break through the high point of 1450. This is Kaifeng's view on the overall trend next week. If you need confirmation or have questions, please leave a message below.