Oil prices have dropped five times in a row during the year. How much does it cost to fill up a tank of oil?
According to the news of the National Development and Reform Commission on the 23rd, since 24: on August 23rd, 222, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) have dropped by 25 yuan and 2 yuan respectively. After the adjustment, domestic oil prices ushered in the "five consecutive declines" during the year. So today, Xiaobian is here to sort out the relevant knowledge of oil prices for everyone. Let's take a look!
The price of gasoline and diesel oil decreased by 1315 yuan and 117 yuan in five rounds.
In the new round of price adjustment cycle, the national average price of 92 # gasoline, 95 # gasoline and # diesel oil was reduced by .16 yuan, .17 yuan and .17 yuan per liter respectively. Take an ordinary private car with 5L fuel tank capacity as an example. After this price reduction, it will cost the owner less to fill a box of 92 # gasoline.
There have been 15 rounds of price adjustment this year, showing a situation of "ten rises and five falls". The previous five downward adjustments were:
In the seventh round (at 24: on April 15th), the price of gasoline and diesel was reduced by 545 yuan and 53 yuan per ton respectively;
in the 12th round (at 24: on June 28th), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 32 yuan and 31 yuan respectively;
In the 13th round (at 24: on July 12th), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 36 yuan and 345 yuan per ton respectively;
in the 14th round (at 24: on July 26th), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 3 yuan and 29 yuan respectively per ton;
and the last round (at 24: on August 9th), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 13 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively.
since the 12th round of price adjustment, the oil price has shown a continuous downward trend, and in the new round of price adjustment cycle, it has achieved "five consecutive declines". After five rounds, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 1315 yuan and 117 yuan respectively.
the demand forecasts of OPEC and EIA are different, and the international oil price may still be weak.
OPEC lowered the global oil demand growth forecast to 3.1 million barrels per day again in the Monthly Oil Market Report in August, which was 26, barrels per day lower than the forecast of last month. This is the third time that the organization has lowered this forecast since April. At the same time, OPEC also said that it is expected that there may be oversupply in the global oil market during the year.
however, EIA (us energy information administration), which released its report on the same day, gave the opposite forecast because of its different emphasis. EIA said that the current oil demand for power generation has increased significantly, and at the same time, the high natural gas price has turned some natural gas demand to oil, so it raised the global oil demand growth forecast in 222 by 38, barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day.
On the supply side, the market is optimistic about the progress of Iran's nuclear negotiations in the context that Russian oil has not withdrawn from the market as expected. Once the agreement is reached, the global contradiction between supply and demand will be alleviated to some extent; However, OPEC+ believes that the current oil price has fallen too fast, and measures will be taken to stabilize the oil price.
the price monitoring center of the national development and reform commission predicts that there are many uncertain factors affecting oil prices in the short term, and oil prices will remain weak. The geopolitical game between the United States and the West and the oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will probably lead to the intensification of crude oil price fluctuations.
during the price adjustment period, the international oil price continued to decline in shock. On average, the oil prices of Brent in London and WTI in new york decreased by 4.83% and 3.23% respectively compared with the previous price adjustment cycle. As of the close of August 22nd, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by .54 USD to 9.23 USD per barrel, a decrease of .59%. London Brent crude oil futures for October delivery fell .24 USD to 96.48 USD per barrel, a decrease of .25%.
the "continuous decline" trend may end in the next round
Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a slight upward trend at the current international crude oil price level, but the range is low. "At present, the positive and negative are still in a game situation. The market is still worried about the economic and demand prospects, but at the same time, the tight supply is expected to continue. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be more likely." The next price adjustment window will open at 24: on September 6, 222.
Xi Jiarui, a refined oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, holds a similar view. She believes that the global energy system is once again severely tested due to the risk of supply chain interruption. If the energy crisis in Europe continues to escalate, it will eventually affect the crude oil market and form a supporting role for oil prices.