Breeding profits plummeted 1.200 yuan. According to CCTV's Global New Finance, the price of pigs has dropped rapidly recently. Within half a month, the futures price of live pigs fell by more than 20%, and the spot price of pork also fell sharply.
Although the pig price has rebounded occasionally, the decline in these two months has been expanding, from the highest point of 28 yuan/kg to 18 yuan/kg! The national average price of live pigs dropped by nearly 10 yuan/kg, and the breeding profit plummeted by about 1200 yuan/head!
At this point, the pig industry is once again facing a severe test of loss. Even the costs of Wen's, COFCO, Shennong and New Hope are in the range of 16- 17 yuan/kg, which is only a short distance from selling pigs! As for the majority of small and medium-sized farmers, their meat production costs are generally above 18 yuan/kg, and some even as high as 20-2 1 yuan/kg, which has gradually fallen into losses!
The trend of pig price plunging is beyond ordinary people's imagination.
I vaguely remember that the price of pigs dropped to 25 yuan/Jin in the middle of 165438+ 10. Although many live pig online platforms have repeatedly suggested that the risk of subsequent pig price decline is high, there are still quite a few people who firmly believe that "the market will improve in February 65438".
It's 65438+February, and the market is in a downturn, but some people are superstitious about "year-end quotes".
How bad is the supply and demand market at the end of this year?
According to Zhuo Chuang Information Monitoring, the pig slaughter ratio of some large-scale farms in China increased 10.62% in June from 5438+065438+ 10, which was the main reason for the drop in pig prices in June from 5438+065438+ 10. But what is even more frightening is that the agency expects that the pig slaughter in June 5438+February will increase by 10/7% compared with that in October, and the growth rate will continue to expand!
This reflects two major situations: first, in June, 5438+065438+ 10, many people were reluctant to sell at extremely high prices; Second, the downward space of pig prices in 65438+February is high.
So even in 65438+February, can we still look forward to the "Spring Festival market"?
In fact, according to the trend of the National Development and Reform Commission and big pig enterprises, the Spring Festival market may be a "bigger storm"!
The warning of the collapse of pig prices reached the end of the year. Although the "mask problem" has been released, everyone is still very vigilant about "Yang" at this time.
And near the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, many people worry that the risk of "Yang" will be great, so everyone's economic income has not increased significantly. Instead, they have to spend their living expenses to grab the "fever-reducing and cough-relieving" products with rising prices.
So will the demand for pork during the Spring Festival be greatly boosted? It's hard!
Moreover, the spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) pointed out on February 6 16 that with the approaching of the peak consumption season of residents such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the NDRC has set up a special working class to arrange special personnel for docking guidance to ensure the stability of the quantity and price of important livelihood commodities during the "two festivals".
In the future, the government pork reserves will be put into use in due course, and the efforts will be increased during important periods such as the "two festivals".
In addition, judging from the trend of big pig enterprises such as Mu Yuan, Wen's and New Hope, their year-end impulsive behavior continues, and market saturation becomes the norm.
In addition, many farmers fattened for the second time in June 5438+ 10, and were reluctant to sell in June 5438+065438+ 10. In February and Spring Festival, "flood irrigation" will be provided in 65438+February.
So although the price of pigs has collapsed and the price of meat has fallen, there is still the possibility of falling! Farmers should be alert to the next business risks, because two major danger signals have appeared.
Piglet inflation, danger signal! When the pig price plummeted, the month-on-month change of piglet price was "minimal", and the year-on-year increase was even more amazing!
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national average price of piglets in the second week of 65438+February in 2022 was 43.09 yuan/kg, down 1.9% from the previous week and up 52.4% from last year.
Obviously, although the pig price still has a "crash warning", the piglet price is still firm, which is 52% higher than last year. The money to buy a pig this year can buy two last year!
For piglets, New Hope even said in 65438+February 65438+May that the average selling weight of fattening pigs in the past two months was around 120 kg, but the sales of piglets did increase.
This is mainly based on the pre-judgment of the current and future pig prices and the phased adjustment.
After the piglets are released in the past two months, they will be released in the second quarter. According to previous years' experience, pig prices often drop rapidly after the Spring Festival, and then rise again in the second half of the year due to related holidays.
What does this mean? We should know that the new hope of meat production cost has dropped to about 18 yuan/kg, and even they are highly alert to the market next year, not to mention the vast number of farmers are still in 20 yuan!
Furthermore, at this time, the big pig enterprises are vigorously selling piglets, which is quite a feeling of "throwing the pot" and transferring greater business risks to the outside world.
Although the current pig price is not high, the trough of pig price after the Spring Festival will probably be very long! At that time, the cost of 18 yuan/kg may not be profitable! Pig prices may fall to 16- 17 yuan in stages!
Therefore, if you want to outsource piglet fattening and prepare for production next year, you must be highly alert to the price! Never increase unnecessary production costs.
The cost has skyrocketed and involution has intensified. In addition to piglets, the risks brought by feed prices are also scary.
According to the announcement of China Feed Industry Association, in June 2022, the national industrial feed output was 26.72 million tons, down 5.7% from the previous month and up 0.2% year-on-year. The price of compound feed for finishing pigs was 3.84 yuan/kg, up10.7% year-on-year; Concentrated feed for finishing pigs was 5.93 yuan/kg, up 12.5% year-on-year.
It is not difficult to see from the above data that even in the case of general feed demand, its price is still rising sharply, squeezing farmers' already low profits.
The scissors difference of high cost and low pig price forced the industry to involute continuously, and finally gradually formed a "new cycle".
Keen pig farmers found that this new pig cycle is different from the past, and its high price period is quite short! Taking 20 yuan/Jin as the boundary, the pig price is only from July to 65438+mid-February, and it is only more than five months above 20 yuan; But before that, the pig price has gone through the market below 20 yuan for 13 months!
Even if we look into the future, the price of pigs will be below 20 yuan/kg for a long time in terms of the number of sows exceeding the standard and the steadily increasing production level.
It can be seen that with the development of large-scale pig raising, the ability of pig disease prevention and control has been continuously strengthened, and the production cost has intensified. The production capacity of live pigs is relatively saturated for a long time, which eventually leads to a gradual decline in the level of breeding profits.
At this point, the high-quality development of the pig industry is true, and it is also true that it is getting harder and harder! When we complain about the "depressed market" every day, we just miss every "best market".