Source: China Statistical Information Network: 2006-1-10:16? Close the window? Print this page
Energy is a strategic resource of a country and an important material basis for economic growth and social development of a country or region. With the sustained and rapid economic growth in Zhejiang, the high-energy consumption industry driven by heavy chemical industry has developed rapidly, and with the rapid upgrading of high-energy consumption demand such as housing, automobiles and household appliances, the energy bottleneck problem has become increasingly prominent. In addition, in recent years, the impact of various kinds of energy price fluctuations on various industries and residents' lives in the national economy has triggered our reflection on economic growth mode, living consumption mode, energy security, social and economic sustainable development and other issues. Based on the analysis of a large number of statistical data, this paper puts forward our suggestions in order to provide reference for the government's macro-decision.
The first part is the current situation of energy consumption and price increase in Zhejiang Province.
First, Zhejiang's energy consumption is growing rapidly, and its dependence on energy is deepening.
1. Zhejiang's total energy consumption has expanded rapidly. The growth rate of energy consumption in Zhejiang in recent three years is above 10%. In 2003, the province's total energy consumption was 95.23 million tons of standard coal, an increase of 15.0% over the previous year. In 2004, the total energy consumption reached 10825 million tons of standard coal, an increase of 13.6% over the previous year. In 2005, the total energy consumption reached120.32 million tons of standard coal, an increase of1.2% over the previous year, including 96.808 million tons of coal (raw coal and clean coal), electricity164.23 billion kwh and petroleum products1. Compared with last year, the consumption of coal, electricity and oil increased by 10.7%, 15.7% and 7.3% respectively. In recent years, although the growth rate of energy consumption in Zhejiang has declined, the total expansion is obvious to all.
With the improvement of the quality of life of Zhejiang residents, the demand for energy consumption has increased sharply. Zhejiang's GDP per capita exceeded 1600 USD in 2000 and reached 3400 USD in 2005. The quality of life has improved rapidly and electrical appliances have been popularized and upgraded. The per capita living area has doubled; The mode of travel is gradually changing to private cars, and the improvement of quality of life directly leads to the rapid growth of energy demand. The per capita annual electricity consumption of urban households increased from 3 19 kwh in 2000 to 656 kwh in 2005, an increase of 105.6%. In the past five years, the per capita expenditure on electricity and fuel of rural residents increased by 57.5% and 99.0% respectively.
2. Zhejiang's external dependence on energy is getting higher and higher. As a small energy province, the rapid expansion of Zhejiang's total energy consumption makes its energy dependence on foreign countries higher and higher. In 2003, 2004 and 2005, the total energy transferred and imported from outside the province increased by 12.2%, 16. 1% and 9.4% respectively.
3. Zhejiang's economy is increasingly dependent on energy. Judging from the direct consumption coefficient of input-output industry correlation, the direct consumption of the whole economy to electricity and thermal production and supply industry, oil and natural gas mining industry, petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry showed an upward trend during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and the direct consumption coefficient rose from 0.80, 0.60 and 1.08 in 2002 to 1.08 respectively. From 200 1 to 2005, the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption in Zhejiang province was 0.99, 1. 1.02, 1.02, 0.94 and 0.87 respectively, which was 73.7% higher than that in the Ninth Five-Year Plan period.
Second, in recent years, major energy prices have entered a channel of sustained and rapid rise.
1. The international oil price rises rapidly, and the era of high oil price comes ahead of time. After 2003, affected by the US-Iraq war and the tightening of the international situation, international oil broke away from the price range of 10-25 USD/barrel in the 1990s, showing an upward trend. The New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures price (WTI) rose gradually from $30 per barrel at the beginning of 2003 to $40 in June 2004. Only four months later, it broke through the $50 mark at 5438+ 10 in June 2004. Then the oil price went up all the way, rising to 70 dollars per barrel in July and August 2005 and hitting 80 dollars in August 2006. According to the annual increase of crude oil price, it rose by 2.9% in 2003, 34. 1% in 2004, 4 1.6% in 2005 and 4.9% from 10 to August in 2006.
The rapid rise of international oil prices is not only caused by the acceleration of world economic growth, but also by geopolitical and oil-producing areas, speculative capital making waves in the crude oil futures market and other factors. Recently, with the increase of crude oil production capacity in major oil-producing countries, European and American countries have raised interest rates to regulate economic growth, which has greatly eased the uncertainties that stimulate oil prices to rise, making oil prices tend to fall back, but the era of low oil prices is gone forever, and it is an indisputable fact to enter the era of high oil prices ahead of time.
The price of coal and natural gas has gone up. As an important energy source, the price of coal and natural gas has risen sharply at the same time as the price of crude oil, and it has also appeared in the continuous rise driven by consumer demand. In 2004 and 2005, the price of coal rose sharply. In 2004, the price of raw materials purchased anthracite rose by 3 1.3%, and the price of bituminous coal rose by 40.2%. In 2005, the price of anthracite increased by 65,438+05.3% and that of bituminous coal by 65,438+02.8%. In 2005, industrial enterprises above designated size consumed 87.52 million tons of coal, accounting for more than 70% of the total energy consumption. The rise in coal prices has fundamentally promoted the trend of energy prices in Zhejiang and increased the production costs of metallurgical and chemical enterprises.
The prices of natural gas and coal rose simultaneously, rising by 24.5% in 2005 and by 265,438+0.4% from June to August 2006.
The second part is the impact of rising energy prices on the economy.
First, the impact of rising energy prices on the macro economy.
1. Rising energy prices have aggravated the potential inflationary pressure. First, the rise in energy prices has led to an increase in fuel purchase prices of oil companies. From 2003 to 2005, the purchase price of fuel power products of industrial enterprises in the province increased by 5.8%, 14.5% and 15.5% respectively, which increased the pressure of product price increase of downstream enterprises. Second, the rise in fuel prices has directly driven the overall level of consumer prices in Zhejiang. From 2003 to 2005, the consumption energy prices of gasoline, diesel, electric power, liquefied petroleum gas, pipeline gas and other fuels rose, contributing 3.8%, 6.68% and 265,438 0.6% to CPI respectively, which became one of the important factors to promote the overall price level.
2. The rising energy price directly leads to the increase of foreign exchange expenditure. Zhejiang is not only a big oil consumption province, but also a net importer of crude oil. The oil price level in the oil market directly affects oil import trade, and the rise in oil price leads to an increase in foreign exchange expenditure. From 2003 to 2005, Zhejiang's foreign exchange payment for imported crude oil increased from $220 million to $665.438+0 billion, with an average annual increase of 6.5438+0.20%. In these three years alone, Zhejiang will have to pay 60 million US dollars, 65.438+360 million US dollars and 65.438+740 million US dollars for importing crude oil.
Second, the impact of rising energy prices on agriculture.
The rising prices of coal, oil and natural gas directly affect the rising prices of agricultural fertilizers, pesticides, plastic films and other agricultural materials, as well as the rising costs of oil for irrigation, agriculture and transportation. Although the local government has taken various measures to control the price increase of agricultural materials, it is still difficult to curb the continuous increase of the prices of major agricultural products driven by costs, which has had a great negative impact on farmers' income.
1. Rising energy prices have pushed up the prices of agricultural means of production in Zhejiang. The prices of agricultural means of production in Zhejiang began to rise in 2003. In 2003, the overall price of agricultural products rose by 2.9%, in 2004 by 65,438+03.2%, in 2005 by 5.8%, and in 2006 by 65,438+0-8 months by 0.7%.
(1) The price of chemical fertilizer has risen rapidly in recent three years. Fertilizer production takes oil, natural gas and coal as the main raw materials, which consumes electricity, so it is called a high energy-consuming industry, and it also has certain environmental pollution. With coal as raw material, every time 1 ton of urea is produced, coal 1.2 ton and electricity 1.2 kwh are needed. Rising energy prices directly increase the production costs of enterprises and push up the prices of fertilizer products. Fertilizer prices in Zhejiang have been rising year after year, rising by 2.3% in 2003, 15.4% in 2004 and 10.0% in 2005, and are still at a high level. Compared with the beginning of 2003, the prices of main fertilizer products rose in August 2006, with nitrogen fertilizer rising by 25.5%, phosphorus fertilizer rising by 24.8%, potassium fertilizer rising by 58.3% and compound fertilizer rising by 365,438+0.1%.
(2) The price increase of pesticides is lower than that of APIs. The rising prices of crude oil, coal and chemical raw materials have increased the production and operation costs of enterprises, leading to a general sharp increase in the prices of pesticides and raw materials. From early 2003 to August 2006, the prices of methamidophos, glyphosate and acetochlor increased by 30%, 65,438+07.3% and 50.4% respectively. In contrast, from 2003 to August 2006, the market price of pesticides in the whole province increased by only 7.2%, and the increase of pesticide equipment was 6.6%. The phenomenon that the price of pesticides rises with the tide, although it reduces the economic pressure of farmers, also leads some pesticide production enterprises to disrupt the pesticide market with low-quality products after excessive competition, which brings hidden dangers to farmers' safe production.
(3) The prices of agricultural engine oil and agricultural film have risen sharply. The rise in crude oil prices directly drives the price increase of agricultural engine oil and agricultural film. The price increase of agricultural engine oil in Zhejiang is basically synchronous with the price increase of diesel oil, with a cumulative increase of 36.4% from the beginning of 2003 to August 2006. The price increase of crude oil leads to an increase in the production cost of agricultural film raw materials. From 2003 to August 2006, the ex-factory price of agricultural PVC film increased by 49.8%, and the market price of agricultural film maintained a continuous increase of 17.2% (see table 1 for details).
Table1Price Increase of Main Agricultural Means of Production in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2005 (%)
name
In 2003
In 2004
In 2005
June 30(th), 2006
Price index of agricultural materials in the whole province
2.9
13.2
5.8
-0.7
change
2.3
15.4
10.0
-0.6
nitrogenous fertilizer
2.5
18. 1
7. 1
-3.2
phosphate fertilizer
1.6
8.0
1 1.4
2. 1
potash fertilizer
1. 1
20.9
24.5
4.8
complex fertilizer
2.7
1 1.7
10.2
3.7
Pesticide and pesticide machinery
-0.9
4. 1
3.7
0.2
Chemical insecticide
-0. 1
4.2
3.8
0. 1
Second, pesticide equipment
-0.5
3.4
2.5
1. 1
Agricultural engine oil
7.2
5.5
7.7
12.0
Agricultural film
2. 1
5.7
6.6
1.9
2. The increase in agricultural production costs affects farmers' income. In recent years, the government has issued a series of preferential policies to promote the development of agricultural mechanization in Zhejiang, and the popularization rate of agricultural machinery in rural areas has increased year by year. In 2005, the total power of agricultural machinery in the province was 2 1 1.27 million kilowatts, which was 3.5% higher than that in 2003. The consumption of agricultural diesel in the whole province was 1757600 tons in 2003, 186 1600 tons in 2004 and 1872300 tons in 2005. In the past three years, the increase in diesel prices has caused Zhejiang farmers to spend 480 million yuan, 630 million yuan and 654.38+0.4 billion yuan on buying oil each year. The increase in energy prices has led to a general increase in agricultural means of production such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural films, which has directly led to an increase in agricultural production expenditures of farmers in Zhejiang. The per capita agricultural production expenditure of rural residents in Zhejiang increased from 266. 1 yuan in 2003 to 270.2 yuan in 2004 and 344.7 yuan in 2005. In these three years, the per capita agricultural production expenditure increased by 65,438 0.5%, 65,438 0.5% and 27.5% respectively. The rise in oil prices and electricity prices has also driven up the prices of agricultural production services. In the first eight months of 2006, the cost of mechanical operation and pest control increased by 4. 1% and 7.4% respectively. According to the preliminary calculation, due to the rising oil price of finished products, the mechanized farming fee for farmers to cultivate one mu of rice increased by 15 yuan, the pumping fee increased by 10 yuan, and the mechanized fee increased by 12 yuan. The rise in energy prices has offset the effect of the government's policy of benefiting farmers to some extent.
3. Some fishermen in Zhejiang are at a loss due to the sharp increase in fishing cost. Zhejiang is a big marine province, and the seafood fishing industry occupies a large proportion in agricultural production in the southeast coastal areas of Zhejiang. The continuous rise of oil prices has brought great challenges to the development of marine fishing industry and the increase of fishermen's income. Since the second half of 2003, the price of marine diesel oil per barrel has risen from 500 yuan to 600 yuan to 800 yuan, which greatly increased the fishing cost. In addition, the regeneration capacity of Zhejiang offshore marine resources is far below the catch, and the economic fish resources have dropped sharply, so it is impossible to form a fishing ban. Fishing at sea often makes ends meet, resulting in more than half of the fishermen in Linhai, Wenling and other places in Taizhou giving up the traditional winter and returning to Hong Kong to fish in June+10 in 5438. In the first half of this year, the fishing efficiency of double-towed fishing boats in Xiangshan County, Zhejiang Province was low. About 70% of the fishing boats lost money to varying degrees, 20% of the fishing boats broke even, and only 10% of the fishing boats had a slight surplus. The total oil consumption of fishing boats in Xiangshan county is about 300 thousand tons a year. According to the current diesel price, Xiangshan County will increase its oil consumption by nearly 330 million yuan compared with the same period last year. Although governments at all levels have introduced industrial policies to support fisheries, the prices of major energy sources have risen too fast, and the prices of agricultural and fishery means of production have generally risen, which has offset the government's preferential tax reduction and exemption and caused some fishermen in Zhejiang to fall into a loss situation.
4. The rising fuel price increases the logistics cost of agricultural products. In the logistics structure of agricultural products in Zhejiang, there are many products with low added value, and most of the long-distance trafficked agricultural products are mainly in primary form. The freight of agricultural products is the same as that of industrial products, but the transportation profit between them is quite different. With the rapid increase of gasoline and diesel prices in recent years, fuel cost has become the bulk of the logistics cost of agricultural products. In addition, the relevant departments have strengthened the investigation and punishment of highway overload and overrun, and the logistics cost of agricultural products has increased even more when the traffic volume has decreased. According to estimates, rising oil prices and "double-super" regulation affect the freight cost of agricultural products by 30% and 10% respectively, and the profit is 30%-50%. In view of the grim situation of agricultural products transportation, the provincial government issued the "Measures for the Management of" Green Passage "of Fresh Agricultural Products Transportation in Zhejiang Province" in a timely manner, which reduced the freight tolls of agricultural products and ensured the circulation and sales of agricultural products to a certain extent.
Third, the impact of rising crude oil prices on industrial enterprises.