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How many points should the market point be?
Many people are evaluating how many points are appropriate in the market. Many experts also expressed their views. Here, I dare to express my views. I think this question is actually very simple, that is, a question of growth rate. As we all know, the average annual growth rate of GDP in China in these 20 years is about 10%, and the stock market is the embodiment of the national economy, and the growth rate of the stock market cannot be separated from the growth rate of the national economy; Because of the large capital flow, the growth rate of the stock market exceeds the growth rate of GDP. I don't know exactly how many. The stock market in different countries is different and the speed is different. Because China's stock market is strictly controlled by policies, the development of the stock market is basically led by the government. So I judge that the decision-makers in China set a standard for the growth rate of the stock market-20%. From 1993, the Shanghai stock market is roughly set at 300 points, and it should be 4622 points by the end of 2007, with an annual growth rate of 20% and no more than 5000 points, which is the most reasonable level. From 2006 to 2007, we didn't need to be nervous at all. The country just let the stock market return to its proper level, that is, make up for the increase. Now it seems that it should be a watershed of 4900 points, and we should start to judge the number of points next year, or the growth rate of about 20%. A reasonable score in 2008 should be 6000. If the factors of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games are added, this year's growth rate can be set at around 30%, and the national decision-making level may take 6,500 points in 2008 as a more reasonable point. The reason why we didn't discuss the growth of the broader market from the perspective of growth rate, I think, is to consider the public psychology, make the stock market income unattainable, and mobilize the enthusiasm of investors. After all, China's national quality is not high. I don't think high marks are important. It is normal to have a bubble, just like a reasonable debt of an enterprise. The key is whether the country can control this bubble. The China government should be most worried about China's financial security and be wary of foreign financial capital. Judging from "making the people get property benefits" mentioned by General Secretary Hu in the Report on the Work of the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, in 2008, the government will guide the people to move closer to the values of "reasonable financial management" and "rational stock trading" (in my own words), which may be a task that the government will do. Because the stock market is too "hot", almost all people who buy funds choose blindly, and the state wants ordinary people to make money in the stock market. With the continuous expansion of China's economic scale, China needs a stock market that matches the economic scale. If China wants to participate in the global economy, the stock market must be strong. In order to conform to the strategy of "going out", the stock market is also needed.