(1) Pay attention to influencing factors 1. Supply and demand relationship According to the principles of microeconomics, when the supply of a certain commodity exceeds demand, its price will fall, and vice versa.
At the same time, price will in turn affect supply and demand. That is, when price rises, supply will increase and demand will decrease. On the contrary, demand will increase and supply will decrease. Therefore, price and supply and demand influence each other.
2. Macroeconomic situation Copper is an important industrial raw material, and its demand is closely related to the economic situation.
When the economy is growing, the demand for copper increases, which drives the price of copper up. When the economy is depressed, the demand for copper shrinks, causing the price of copper to fall.
When analyzing macroeconomics, two indicators are very important. One is the economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is the industrial production growth rate.
3. Import and export policy Import and export policy, especially tariff policy, is an important means to balance domestic supply and demand by adjusting the import and export costs of commodities to control the import and export volume of a certain commodity.
my country has implemented zero tariff on refined copper imports from January 1, 2008, and the export tax rate on high-purity refined copper is 5%.
A 10% export tax rate is implemented for copper master alloys (General Administration of Customs Announcement No. 79, 2007), and both import and export tax rates have been reduced.
4. Expansion and substitution of copper consumption Consumption is the direct factor affecting copper prices, and the development of copper-using industries is an important factor affecting consumption.
For example, after the 1990s, the use of copper for pipes in the construction industry in developed countries increased significantly, and the construction industry became the largest copper consumer. This promoted the rise of international copper prices in the mid-1990s, and the housing construction rate in the United States also became an influence on copper prices.
one of the factors.
Since 2003, the development of China's real estate and electric power has greatly promoted the growth of copper consumption, thus becoming one of the factors supporting copper prices.
In the automotive industry, manufacturers are advocating replacing copper with aluminum to reduce vehicle weight and thereby reduce the amount of copper used in the industry.
In addition, with the rapid development of science and technology, the application scope of copper is constantly expanding, and copper has begun to play a role in the fields of medicine, biology, superconductivity and environmental protection.
IBM has used copper to replace aluminum in silicon chips, marking the latest breakthrough in the application of copper in semiconductor technology.
These changes will affect copper consumption to varying degrees.
5. Copper production cost Production cost is the basis for measuring commodity price levels.
The production cost of copper includes smelting cost and refining cost.
Different mines estimate copper production costs differently. The most common economic analysis is to use "cash flow breakeven cost", which decreases as the value of by-products increases.
Production costs have shown a downward trend since the 1990s.
6. Fund trading direction Although the fund industry has a long history, it did not develop vigorously until the 1990s. At the same time, the degree of fund participation in commodity futures trading also increased significantly.
Judging from the evolution of the copper market in the past ten years, funds have played a role in fueling many major market trends.
7. Price fluctuations in related commodities such as oil will also have an impact on copper prices. Crude oil and copper are important international industrial raw materials. Their strong demand can best reflect the health of the economy. Therefore, in the long term, the price of oil and copper will
The level is closely related to the speed of economic development.
Precisely because both crude oil and copper are closely related to the macroeconomy, there is a positive correlation between copper prices and oil prices to a certain extent.
However, the two are only consistent in trend and are not necessarily consistent in short-term price fluctuations.
8. Exchange rate fluctuations International copper transactions are generally priced in US dollars, and currently several major international currencies implement floating exchange rates.
With the official launch of the euro on January 1, 1999, the international foreign exchange market formed a tripartite trend of the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen.
Since the price ratio between these three major currencies often changes significantly, the international copper price priced in US dollars will also be affected by the exchange rate. This can be seen from the 1994-1995 USD/JPY (124.38,0.1600,0.13%)
This is reflected in the sharp decline and the weakness of the euro in 1999-2000 and the continued depreciation of the dollar in recent years.
(2) Pay attention to trading rules and transactions 1. Position limit system Position limit refers to the maximum amount of speculative positions in a certain contract that members or customers can hold, calculated on a unilateral basis, stipulated by the exchange.
2. To apply for hedging transactions, you must fill in the <
, Relevant supporting materials proving that the hedging time is consistent.
Settlement refers to the business activity of calculating and allocating members' trading margins, profits and losses, handling fees, delivery payments and other related funds based on transaction results and relevant regulations of the exchange.