The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a US research organization headquartered in Washington, released a report on Tuesday saying that driven by strong domestic demand, China's economy will surpass the United States before 2035 and double its total by the middle of this century.

After the salary increase, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's annual salary is five times that of US President Bush... The report points out that China's economic growth is increasingly driven by investment and domestic consumption, rather than relying on exports.

In view of this new change, Albert Keidel, the author of the report and an expert on the Chinese economy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that despite the overall recession in the world economy, China's strong economic growth will continue throughout this century.

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Gaibold, who has worked for the U.S. Treasury Department and the World Bank, also predicts that China's economic size will be twice that of the United States by the middle of this century.

If China's economic growth rate can be close to the development rate of some other Asian countries, no matter which calculation method is used, by the middle of this century, China will surpass the United States and become the world's most powerful country.

The report stated that China's economy will become the world's leader, while the influence of the U.S. economy will drop to the second tier, just like Europe today.

Over the past 10 years, China's economy has grown at an average annual rate of more than 10%.

According to 2007 data, China's GDP currently ranks fourth in the world, second only to the United States, Japan and Germany.

According to the current market value calculation method, China's GDP in 2007 was US$3.6 trillion, while that of the United States was US$14 trillion.

But according to the purchasing power parity (PPP) calculation method used by the World Bank and some other countries, China's current GDP is half that of the United States.

Gaibold said that according to the PPP calculation method, China's GDP in 2020 will reach 18 trillion US dollars, keeping pace with the United States.

If calculated according to the more commonly used market value method, China will catch up with the United States in 2035.

Gaibold predicts that China's GDP will reach 82 trillion US dollars by 2050, while the United States' GDP will be 44 trillion US dollars.

Interestingly, Gai Baode’s colleague Pei Minxin, China Program Director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has reservations about the above prediction.

Pei Minxin said in an interview with the media yesterday that Gai Baode's forecast lacked credibility and the report he released lacked the data required for macro forecasts.

He believes that it is too hasty to arbitrarily believe that China's economy will surpass the United States after 27 years just because the current average annual growth rate of China's economy is 7%.

Pei Minxin said that there are many unknown factors in the development of the world economy.

Specifically, when it comes to the two major countries, the United States and China, there are even more variables.

He believes that China's economic development will face a critical period in the next 15 years.

If China cannot successfully transform from an economic model that relies on high energy consumption, high savings rates, and high investment, it will be impossible to maintain sustained high economic growth.