Some companies have experienced performance "stress tests"
"At present, A shares are undergoing a' stress test' from the bottom of performance, which may last for one quarter to six months." Wu Liang (a pseudonym), a fund manager of a fund company in South China, told reporters.
Wu Liang cited data and pointed out that the economic data released on June 27, 65438/KLOC-0 showed that the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.2% from June to August, which was 0.9 percentage points slower than that in June. In August, industrial enterprises above designated size realized a total profit of 519.69 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7 percentage points slower than that in July.
"The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises may start to decline, which also indicates that the profit growth rate of listed companies will further decline, and this trend may be improved in the 20 19 report." He said.
According to the statistics of Minsheng Canada Fund, the recent downward trend of PMI data exceeded expectations. On June 5438+ 10, the PMI of China mining manufacturing industry dropped by 0.6 percentage point to 50.2%, among which the production and new order indexes dropped significantly. Minsheng Canada Fund believes that the year-on-year growth rate of net profit of listed companies in the third quarterly report is lower than that in the interim report, and the fundamental pressure continues to increase.
Zhongtai Securities said that the third quarterly report showed that the profit growth rate of listed companies continued to decline, and the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises was poor. The income growth rate of financial and non-financial enterprises continued to divide, and the profit growth rate dropped simultaneously. At the same time, the profit growth rate of SMEs continued to decline, and the growth rate of the main board also slowed down. The profit growth rate of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises declined in an all-round way, and the profit decline rate of private enterprises was higher than that of state-owned enterprises.
Statistics from the Macro Strategy Department of Guangfa Fund show that in the medium term, the decline of corporate profits continues, and the listed company ROE began to decline in the third quarter after eight quarters.
According to the analysis of Baoying Fund, the third quarterly report of the enterprise has been released recently. Although the previous expectation of declining profit growth rate has been verified as a whole, it is necessary to wait until the end of the first quarter of next year to April from the fourth quarter to the next enterprise data verification period. Therefore, at this stage, the market will be in the blank window of micro-enterprise data, and it is difficult to predict the overall deterioration of market sentiment.
Wu Liang pointed out that "the long-term rate of return in the secondary market is a true reflection of the quality of enterprises. The difference between high-quality companies and companies with relatively poor texture is that when each cycle rotates, good companies will improve their performance with the economic recovery, and their valuation will return, while poor companies' performance has been in the downward cycle. "
Quality companies are favored.
When profits are challenged, industries and companies with excellent quality and improved fundamentals become more and more precious.
Minsheng Canada Fund pointed out that as the macro-economy began to decline in an all-round way, the short-term focus was mainly in three aspects: First, the growth sector benefited from short-term external factors, domestic deleveraging was relatively loose, and policies were favorable; Second, industries and companies with stable or improved prosperity in the third quarterly report; The third is related industries that benefit from the shortcomings of infrastructure.
According to the analysis of Southwest Securities, from the perspective of specific industry performance, the growth rate of most industries declined, but some industries still achieved an increase in growth rate. The growth rate of petroleum and petrochemical, national defense and military industry, coal, banking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and communications in the third quarter was higher than that in the previous three quarters, showing an upward trend from the previous quarter. Among them, the performance improvement of communications and national defense military industry is particularly worthy of attention.
TF Securities pointed out that from the performance of various industries in the third quarterly report, we can pay attention to industries with relatively high prosperity or improved fundamentals such as agriculture, real estate, banking, military industry and computers.
Great Wall Fund suggested that we should continue to tap high-quality growth stocks in TMT from strategic bargain hunting, especially semiconductors, integrated circuits, 5G, big data, cloud computing, network security and military stocks related to self-control, and continue to pay attention to large-cap blue-chip stocks related to steady growth such as steel, finance, real estate, construction and construction machinery, as well as necessary large consumption sectors.
Qianhai United Fund pointed out that the short-term policy foundation will continue to be stable, and the allocation ideas will follow the direction of the prosperity of the third quarterly report and the policy boost, and seek opportunities for individual stocks in the short term. Give priority to low-value blue chips and manufacturing leaders with considerable dividend yield and stable profits. The growth leader of technological innovation and the consumption leader with relatively stable growth will gradually show their value in the adjustment.
(Article Source: china securities journal)