For long-term value investors, they firmly believe that the market is basically random in the short term, and those winners will always stand out because there are enough participants. The probability of winning the market in the short term may be only about 50%. Suppose a company continues to grow and develop for a long time, and the company's technical and marketing team has great advantages, and at the same time it has achieved the first-Mover advantage. In the long run, the probability of winning money by investing in this company's tokens will be greater than 50%. The longer the time, the greater the probability of making money.
Why many people still can't help but think about short-term speculation, because it is human nature to get rich quickly, and at the same time, the less energy consumed, the better. It is best to get something for nothing and get the maximum benefit at the least cost.
In business, everyone has a psychological account, and each account stores different value scales.
There is a classic example on the Internet: suppose you bought a concert ticket in Jonathan Lee worth 1888 yuan in advance. Then, when you left for the concert, you found that you had lost your ticket. Meanwhile, you know that Jonathan Lee's concert tickets are not sold out. You can buy another one on the spot. The question is, are you willing to spend 1888 yuan to buy another ticket? Maybe many people just give up.
Let's go back to the scene. Suppose you didn't buy tickets for the concert in advance. On the way to the concert, you found that your prepaid gift card of 1888 yuan was lost, and you couldn't report the loss. Will you go to the concert in Jonathan Lee again? Many people will still choose to watch it.
Many people think this is not normal. If you think about it carefully, you will find that there is a lot of knowledge in it. Things with the same price have different meanings to a person. Concert tickets represent entertainment expenses and belong to adjusting the taste of life. Since the ticket has been lost, it is also a waste to spend money to buy another one. Let's spend money to buy it, giving people a different psychological feeling. The latter is a shopping card. Although it is lost, it does not affect our need to continue watching the concert.
For investment, some people like to play short-term, and they have preferences and needs in this respect. If they can't satisfy them, they will be tickled. At this time, they can deposit their funds in different accounts, take out about 20% of the total investment assets to play short-term, and the remaining 80% can find a reliable blockchain fund to invest, so that they will not play short-term losses and temporarily use long-term funds. If you are self-disciplined, you can spend 5% of your money on high-leverage games, but don't be greedy.
Many people can only learn lessons by personally experiencing the consequences of short-term operations. Yesterday, a friend of 007 played eos lever. Fortunately, this is only a small part of the position. At the beginning, there were only 500 EO's, and finally more than 4,000 EO's were played through contract leverage. I was still sharing my experience with my friends who went to Jinma that day. As a result, yesterday, EOS fell sharply and exploded. I experienced the feeling of a psychological roller coaster, from extreme excitement to extreme loss, which was really exciting, even more exciting than playing a roller coaster. The roller coaster is physical, and this thing is a spiritual experience. If you want to experience it, you can play hard and experience the feeling of getting rich and losing money overnight. Through the lever, the coin circle with very high time density can be enlarged ten times.
In fact, the market is not completely random. People who have investment principles are more likely to win in the long run than those who have no investment principles and invest like kittens. It is very important to establish investment discipline and principles, and strictly abide by these strategies, and then constantly revise them, and cultivate long-term perception by recording prices once a week, instead of falling into ultra-short-term arbitrage.
I remember saying at the beginning of the article that the market is always born in despair, grows with a grain of salt, matures in expectation and destroys in hope. What stage do you think the market is at now? How long is the cycle of despair and hope?
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Featured comments: enter the dragon: Now that EOS is on fire, I personally don't recommend Stud, because Stud is very risky, and the more fire it is, the greater the risk it may be. However, EOS bottomed out in the middle of the month, and now its profit is about 3 times. I'm going to add some positions appropriately, but not too much. A reasonable mix of investment is king. Buy 50% in mainstream currency and 50% in small currency, and then appropriately increase the proportion of EOS investment, with the proportion not exceeding 20%. You don't have to worry about May. Wait until one week before and after EOS goes online to look at the K line and analyze the general trend. At that time, EOS may need to reduce its position appropriately to a reasonable proportion. Enter the money market, control risks, rationally allocate investment, hold it for a long time, pursue average income and be relatively safe. Wendy and her son: Brother Sheng Da's analysis is very practical: 1. Those who make a lot of money through EOS are people who bargain-hunting in batches during the desperate period of the market, not people who blindly enter the market when they are crazy. Then it is the same when combined with other currencies. If it has started to go crazy, don't chase it. Pay more attention to the main chain coins and value coins that have not yet started, ambush in advance, and wait for the opportunity. Luck is also very important, but there are still many opportunities in the currency circle. The key is whether you dare to take a heavy position when you have an opportunity. Luck is still based on cognition. Without in-depth understanding of the project, it is easily affected by market fluctuations. Often can't hold good money. Also said EOS, I had thousands of coins, but I didn't hold them. At first, I wanted to get rid of it first, and then make up for it in a bear market, but in a real bear market, I always felt that it would fall. I never made up for it, but I panicked at the beginning and made up a little. I was lucky to meet EOS last year, but I didn't take it. It still doesn't belong to me. So, after a bear-cow experience, Wendy still summed up something. Although these summaries have been heard many times before, only those who have experienced them personally remember them the most. Thank you for your analysis.
Out of town? The coin circle is the first fantasy masterpiece, and the coin circle summoner: success is always the welfare of very few people: entrepreneurship is a wooden bridge, and investment is also a wooden bridge. Only a few people can cross the river. This is a fact that has been verified countless times, but it is still ignored by fanatics in the face of interests. There are thousands of currencies in the money market, and each currency is wrapped in a beautiful fairy tale. There are many people who try their best to buy lottery tickets. But this phenomenon is unhealthy, and this kind of psychology is even more disagreeable. Success may be a fluke, but it is not good for others or even the development of the whole money market. Success is always the welfare of a small number of people. Even a wise man is not a simple thing in the ever-changing money market. Therefore, we should be a rational investor, aware of the risks in the money market, rather than just expecting fate.