First, investment theory is not sitting and talking.
Don't talk about being tall, just talk about investment theory and data analysis ideas related to daily life.
Four main viewpoints of investment theory:
1, risk. The basic feature of any investment is that the expected annualized expected return risk is closely related, and there are 900% rising and 90% falling factors in the market at the same time; Therefore, it is never necessary to expect to obtain high expected annualized expected returns without taking risks. In addition, when the economic outlook looks less exciting, the expected annualized expected return will be higher. The longer the risky assets are held, the smaller the probability of loss.
2. forecast. Don't judge asset prices (such as stock prices) out of thin air. It is easier to analyze the long-term expected annualized returns of major asset classes in the future than to predict a specific stock. The value of stocks and bonds, products with risk expectation and annualized expected return, lies in the cash flow that can be generated in the future. For the same income, the value now is definitely higher than the future (discount rate).
3. blindness. There is almost no evidence that professional investors (such as fund managers) have good selection ability, and most fund managers are ranked randomly, which is why it is difficult for you to buy funds when you choose fund managers. There is no evidence that anyone can accurately predict the market.
4. combination. In the long run, portfolio is more effective than market forecast, but the past portfolio is not helpful to predict the future; The best investment portfolio is to allocate the ratio of risky assets (stocks) to risk-free assets (short-term bonds, government bonds and money market funds).
To sum up, john maynard keynes (an economist and investor who founded macroeconomics and beauty pageant theory) wrote in a letter to a friend at 1934: It is wrong to catch more companies by casting a net to reduce investment risks, because you know little about these companies, and people without special confidence have limited knowledge and experience; In a certain period of time, I am confident that I will only invest in two or three enterprises.
In fact, the discount of stock investment is considered because investors buy what they think the company may create in the future, rather than past or present assets. Therefore, in modern enterprises with the overall goal of maximizing shareholder value, the valuation of listed companies' stocks pays more attention to the evaluation of the company's future profitability. In other words, the current share price is the market's bargaining for the future value of the company.
Second, the lessons of investment history.
History can't be used to predict stock prices, it can only show you what lessons are.
Historically, at least four valuable lessons can be learned:
In the bull market of 1, both the market and the public are prone to madness, as are the stock market in 2008 and the gold market in 20 12. Even if the price rises abnormally, some people firmly believe that this is an investment opportunity.
2. With the development of the times, financial innovation will make investors encounter unprecedented risks (such as the security of internet finance), so we should pay special attention to prevent risks when dealing with new investments.
3. The transformation of historical prosperity and depression tells us that when the popularity of the whole people rises, it is often the most risky time; The stock price has oversold and even reached its present value (the discount rate is 0), which is the opportunity to buy.
If you want to make money in the stock market, either you must walk in front of everyone, or you must make sure that everyone will walk in the same direction with you after a period of time.
Finally, I'll tell you a joke: one day, a student and a professor were walking along the road and saw a bill of 100 yuan in front of them. The student walked quickly and was about to bend over when the professor grabbed him and said, don't pick it. You see, if it was really 100 yuan, it would have been taken away long ago.
Third, overcome the investment psychology.
The most powerful enemy is ourselves.
The most basic assumption of economic behavior is that investors are rational and take the maximization of their own interests as the starting point. But in fact, the economic crisis is caused by human beings, so is global warming, and the lack of water resources is irrational, and the response is also in investment. Suppose a company is well received and everyone buys its shares, what will happen? 1, the higher the stock price, the lower the corresponding future return; It can't be sold, because there is a lack of potential investors (all the optimistic ones have been bought), and the stock price can't rise.
When investing, try to avoid these four behaviors:
1. Some investors can make profits every year, while others have been losing money. This can not be entirely attributed to their differences in stock selection or timing, which also shows that there is a gap between their ability to use victory and limit failure.
2. People's psychology is also an important factor affecting inflation or deflation. People's expectations of price rise and fall will greatly affect the price rise and fall, and it is also a driving force for the price trend to continue.
3. People are always too optimistic about the market, or unconsciously pay too much attention to a certain industry, which will easily lead to chasing up and down, thus amplifying the risk.
4. Too many transactions lead to high transaction costs or unreasonable buying and selling decisions under the stimulation of fluctuations and information.
Fourth, understand the financial investment industry.
The class teacher was lazy to quote a post first:
China's four major financial industries-banking, securities, insurance and futures-let's count them one by one and see who these industries serve.
Bank: The birth of the bank was originally a symbol of the treasury of wealth. People put excess cash in the bank for safety first, and then for value preservation. The bank's business model is originally the difference between interest deposit and loan, but since the bank entered the fierce market competition, the profit index has driven the bank to hate the poor and love the rich in essence. The deposit bank can only get a little interest, even compared with the price, it is still a negative expected annualized interest rate. However, banks lend a lot to real estate and government projects with low expected annualized interest rates. Create a small group of rich people. The soaring housing prices forced residents to buy houses at high prices. As a result, bank executives get extra high salaries and real estate bosses get rich.
Securities: Since the birth of China stock market, every pore is bloody. How many small and medium-sized retail investors have gained wealth in the secondary stock market? The policies of government supervision departments are designed for the rich and powerful. Far away, let's talk about the GEM. Many people with backgrounds can buy shares before listing. Before going public, a listed company in Guangdong actually plundered tens of millions of shares from employees at a low price because of the so-called law that shareholders should not exceed 300, making the boss rich.
Insurance: I won't elaborate on the tricky things in this industry. Anyway, I think it is a Ponzi scheme. I wonder how many people in China will receive insurance money in 20 years?
Futures: 90% of retail investors engaged in futures index are losing money. There are always some well-connected institutions that can know financial information in advance, and futures are speculative expectations, which are a few beats slower than these institutions, and the losses of retail investors in futures are also justified.
Regardless of the factor of spitting, in fact, what this netizen said is that information asymmetry and ability asymmetry make it difficult for individuals to win the game rules formulated by financial institutions.
The following four points will help you understand the financial investment industry and the rules of the game you are in:
1. Find a way to solve the problem of funding by yourself. You can save money and buy and sell a commodity to get the difference, but remember that if you borrow from a financial institution, the cost will definitely be higher than the coupon interest. Of course, you can also use leverage (such as futures), but you have to bear extremely high risks. There are only two choices: high cost or high risk.
2. Acting for you is essentially a commission. Don't trust their advice, just like don't trust their information-if they are sure that the information is accurate, they will definitely resign and invest themselves.
3. The main business of most fund companies is "raising". They gather funds instead of managing assets. In the past few years, the income source of many fund companies is scale rather than expected annualized expected income.
4.99% of the information learned through newspapers and magazines and 1 0,000% of the information seen through TV are of little significance. Most finance and economics don't understand investment. They are just the voice tools of financial institutions.
Finally answer the question that everyone will have: Who should I listen to?
I think the responsible suggestion is this:
1, listen to yourself. Changes in the market and your understanding of the market are the best guidance, and other people's suggestions will only interfere with your judgment. Only by continuous learning can we solve our own confusion.
2, develop a good sense of self-exercise, keep a clear head, not to predict the rise and fall of the market, but to find a goal that can become your long-term investment.
Don't try to buy at a low point and sell at a high point. If you succeed occasionally, you will attribute it to luck rather than your high level. Few people have that level, even a high probability of luck is impossible.
4. When the market is crazy, don't envy others for earning more than you, it is only a short-lived phenomenon; When the market is depressed, you'd better do nothing or have the courage to take out some cash to buy.
5. Focus on planning financial goals and investment portfolio. About how to carry out financial planning, we will specifically mention it in later classes.