1. In the post-crisis era, the economies of the BRICS countries have entered a period of steady growth. The BRICS countries have different comparative advantages in endowments of production factors. The competitiveness of India and China is mainly reflected in low-cost labor; Russian oil and other natural resources are relatively abundant.

In particular, in recent years, they have rapidly accumulated national capital by relying on the export of oil and natural gas; Brazil and South Africa have rich and diverse natural resources, and are not overly dependent on natural resources like Russia, and their development directions are multi-polar.

(1) Strengthening the ability to drive world economic growth. China’s economic growth rate has maintained an average of more than 10% in the past ten years. The average annual growth rate of India’s economy from 2002 to 2010 exceeded 7.5%. Russia’s average annual growth rate was approximately 6.6%.

has increased from 1.7% to 3.6% in the past decade, and South Africa’s average annual growth rate is around 3%.

The economic crisis has slowed the economic recovery of developed countries, but the BRICS countries have been relatively less affected and have become an important force in global recovery. The center of gravity of the entire world economy has shifted.

The proportion of the BRICS countries in world economic GDP continues to rise, rising from 17.1% in 2000 to 25.7% in 2010. Driven by China's rapid economic growth, according to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, by 2016, the total economy of the BRICS countries will

The total economic volume of developing countries will exceed 30%, and the total economic volume of developing countries will exceed 50%, making the center of gravity of the world economy truly shift from developed countries to developing countries.

(2) Economic growth remains continuous and stable. After the 2008 global economic crisis, world economic growth has entered a period of relatively stable development, but the economic growth after recovery will be slightly lower than the growth before the economic crisis.

The overall economy of the BRICS countries will grow steadily, with little change in growth rate.

Although the economies of China, India and Brazil are all undergoing structural adjustments, they will still maintain rapid growth momentum, with average growth rates of 9.5%, 8.1% and 4-2% respectively in the next five years; Russia's economy has suffered due to over-reliance on oil resources.

Growth will gradually slow down to about 4.0%; South Africa is a new member of the BRICS and has an obvious late-mover advantage, and its economic growth will gradually accelerate to 4.5% in 2016.

The latest data shows that in the next five years, the economic growth rate of the BRICS countries will be much higher than that of developed economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan in the same period, and they will maintain a rapid and stable growth trend in the global economy.

(3) Inflationary pressure gradually eased. In response to the global financial crisis, the world's major economies, led by the United States, injected a large amount of liquidity, leading to rising inflationary pressure.

Judging from the latest data, global inflation will reach a relatively high level in 2011, and then gradually fall back as the economy grows steadily, and then remain on a long-term average trend. The continued decline in global inflation is the key to long-term price growth in the post-crisis era.

main characteristics of change.

Compared with developed countries, the inflation level of the BRICS countries is relatively high. Russia and India will gradually fall back from the current high point to 6.0% and 4.0% in 2016; South Africa and Brazil will fall back to 4.5% respectively; China is the lowest,

It fell back to 2.0%, which has also been China's long-term level over the past decade.

Inflation levels in developed countries will not exceed 2.0% in the next five years, while developing countries will generally fall back to 3.8%, and global inflation will stabilize at around 3.0%.

(4) The unemployment rate shows a downward trend. Affected by the world economic recession, the unemployment rate in the BRICS countries reached a high level from 2008 to 2010, which is generally higher than that in developed economies. The unemployment situation in some countries is still very serious.

In 2010, India's unemployment rate was about 9.4%, Russia's unemployment rate was 6.7%, China's was 4.1%, South Africa was as high as 24.8%, and Brazil was 7.5%.

Since the unemployment rate is a structural lagging indicator, and its changes are closely related to changes in economic structure and macroeconomic policy orientations, the extent of employment growth that can be achieved by relying solely on economic growth is very limited and the results are slow.

Judging from the latest data, Brazil and India will remain at around 6.7% and 9.4% respectively in the next five years; Russia will fall back to 7.0%; South Africa will fall back to 22.2%; China will continue to fall back to 4.0%.

The biggest difference between the BRICS countries and developed countries on employment issues is their different policy goals. The completely free market economy of developed countries has led to large fluctuations in unemployment rates, while the BRICS countries are in the process of rapid economic development and maintain stable employment to promote the economy.

Growth is the main goal.

(5) The improvement of trade balance is gradually advancing. How to improve the world trade balance has always been the main issue in the current debate between countries with trade surplus and deficit countries. Trade balance is conducive to the stable development of the economies of all countries in the world and avoids the economic development of some countries due to structural imbalances.

Uniformity and one-sidedness, and insufficient ability to respond to the economic crisis.

Judging from the proportion of current account to GDP, Brazil, India and South Africa, which have deficits, will stabilize at around 3.4%, 2.2% and 5.5% respectively; China and Russia, which have surpluses, will remain at around 7.0% and 2.0%, all to varying degrees.

improvement.