Since May, A shares plunged first, and the market quickly fell below 3,000 points, then gradually stabilized, oscillating around 2,800 points and 2,900 points, and rebounded slightly recently.
Now, May is coming to an end. Looking back on this month's plunge, the fund believes that the main reason is that almost all the factors that pushed the market up in the first quarter were disturbed, and at the same time, there was a lack of more positive signals, which led to the continued downturn in market sentiment.
Then, when we are about to enter June, will there be "six miracles" after "five poverty"? Or will there be another world?
As far as the current situation is concerned, Lin Han, the Agricultural Bank of China Credit Management Fund, believes that the popularity of the A-share market has rebounded.
On the one hand, the expansion of MSCI has brought in foreign capital, which has enhanced investors' confidence that the market can stabilize. The inflow of foreign capital is a continuous process. After the early market adjustment, the overall valuation level of the A-share market is in an attractive position, and the market itself has a stable foundation. On the other hand, at present, industry themes such as automatic control and rare earth permanent magnets can attract people's popularity and drive the money-making effect, and the whole market sentiment has improved and transactions have gradually become active.
Han Lin said that at present, the valuation level of the broader market and mainstream stocks does not have the basis for a sharp decline, so it is more likely to fluctuate within a narrow range at the current point. Looking back, we should pay attention to whether there will be more fundamental positive signals in June, including whether the macro economy can show strong resilience, whether there are policies to hedge against the slowdown in economic growth, and whether the reform and opening up can be further deepened. Only when these factors are relatively clear, the market will choose a clearer direction. On the current node, choosing to wait or defend is a relatively good strategy.
In terms of policy expectation, Zheng Dong Asset Management believes that the policy orientation will not change in the second quarter or even the second half of the year, fiscal policy will still actively support economic development, while monetary policy will continue to adhere to a steady orientation, and maintaining moderate tightness and steady growth will become the main policy objectives, thus consolidating the good momentum of China's steady economic growth.
In addition, in terms of exchange rate, it is expected that Zhengdong Asset Management Company will fluctuate violently in the short term, which also affects market sentiment. However, at present, the domestic economic fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the domestic economic growth resilience is obvious, and the fundamentals will continue to effectively support the RMB exchange rate.
Looking forward to the market outlook, CITIC Prudential Fund said in its investment strategy report in June that external factors may have a great disturbance on the emotional side, and at the same time, domestic macro policies may turn to marginal easing again to hedge the downward drag of external demand. On the whole, the economy will still slow down steadily in the second quarter, and corporate profits will also decline slightly. Denominator is still the key factor leading the market trend. The follow-up market trend is dominated by weak shocks.
China Life Insurance Fund also stressed that there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the market at present, and in the absence of new strong variables, the market is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the short term, the market is still fluctuating slightly, so it is not appropriate to choose a clear direction. Holding the present position is the best choice.
In terms of industry allocation strategy, China Life Insurance Fund believes that it is the best choice for the industry to focus on leading players and ignore white horses, and continue to be optimistic about aquaculture, non-banking and banking sectors.
CITIC Prudential Fund suggested focusing on medicine, food and beverage, leisure services and supermarkets. , benefiting from CPI inflation and foreign capital inflow, as well as the overlapping areas of early economic cycle and weak profit cycle, such as home appliances, automobiles, banks, real estate and so on. Communication, agriculture, scenery, vitamins and some chemical sub-industries with high prosperity. (CBN)
Zhou Weiwen, China Europe Fund: Focus on Three Investment Opportunities
Looking forward to the future market conditions, Zhou Weiwen, the proposed fund manager of China Europe Ingenuity Fund, said that considering the four major factors of economy, policy, capital and stock market valuation, the A-share market will be basically stable in the next few quarters, but there are structural opportunities; The domestic economic growth rate may decline, but it is better than expected in the fourth quarter of last year.
Specific to the plate configuration, Zhou Weiwen believes that the current market valuation is lower than the historical average and is in a reasonable range. The main opportunities lie in more promising industries and stocks in the future, such as technology, consumption and services, cyclical industries and so on. At present, the pharmaceutical industry benefits from innovative drugs, and the communication industry benefits from the investment wave of 5G. We will pay attention to stocks that benefit from industry improvement and high performance growth, and strive to create greater excess returns. (china securities journal)
Japan's Peak Asset Management: Yen assets are attractive.
Looking forward to the future trend of Japanese stock market and Tokyo stock index, Peak Asset Management pointed out that PE and PB of Japanese stock market are at a relatively low level since Abenomics. Because the Bank of Japan kept buying ETFs for the purpose of implementing the quantitative and qualitative easing policy, and the Japanese government pension investment fund (GPIF) adjusted its investment portfolio in 20 14, increasing the proportion of Japanese stock investment, the relationship between supply and demand in the stock market remained good.
In the economic trend of Japan, due to the good employment environment and the rising demand for efficient investment caused by the shortage of manpower, the economy has maintained a slow recovery trend. In addition, the performance of Japanese companies will also maintain an upward trend, because central banks of various countries are making efforts to relax the financial environment, and the global economy centered on the United States will maintain growth. In such an investment environment, the Japanese stock market is expected to remain stable. Summit Asset Management believes that the Japanese stock market is expected to remain stable, the relationship between supply and demand in the Japanese stock market is good, and Japanese yen assets have certain advantages. (China Securities Network)
(Clouds grow long and water grows long)