The method of looking at the flow direction of plate funds
What do we usually say? Hot spot? In fact, it is a stock with concentrated funds, and? Plate rotation? In fact, it is the disk effect caused by the rotation of capital flow.
What about the centralized inflow of capital? Hot spot? After individual stocks, it shows that hot money has entered the market and individual stocks have the conditions to start the market.
The hot spot of capital flow can be observed from the turnover ranking of the two cities: the top 20 to 30 stocks in daily turnover (turnover) are the hot spots of capital flow, and the focus to be observed is whether these stocks have similar characteristics or are concentrated in a certain sector, and whether they occupy the turnover list for a long time (half a day, one day, three days, etc. are directly proportional to the strength of attracting funds). It should be noted here that when the market turnover is relatively low, some large-cap stocks occupy the forefront of the transaction list, and the turnover of these stocks has not been significantly enlarged, which means that the popularity of the market at this time is scattered, rather than representing the concentration of capital flows.
When observing stock selection, we need to pay attention to the volatility of capital flow, and observe the volatility of capital flow from the price list: the entry of large funds (usually what we call institutional investors or main funds) is different from that of idle small funds. Large funds are better at exploring investment varieties with growth space (from the chart, they entered at a relatively low level), and whether the hot money is concentrated in the market depends more on whether the market is good at that time. Therefore, from the perspective of the disk, the stocks in the plate are dynamic, and the time for large funds to enter and leave the market is earlier than the average time for small funds to enter and leave.
How to find out that the main force has started? Look at the ups and downs list: the stocks that initially start the market (with the highest increase and enlarged trading volume) often have the best demonstration effect. If you don't buy leading stocks, buy stocks that are similar to leading stocks but haven't risen sharply (from the perspective of trends and sectors), because funds are dynamic, you must remember. The main force can only do sedan chair work, not liberation work.
The other is to see if the top stocks in the decline list have risen in the past two days, and whether the turnover in these two days is relatively large. If so, it shows that the popularity has gathered, and the funds to follow suit are more firm, which is conducive to the sustainable development of the market. Of course, the decline in trading volume after a sharp rise is not included.
All the above are the judgments when the market goes up. Investors can try to apply this judgment method to the judgment of falling market.
Application in actual combat: First of all, it is very important to judge the inflection point of the market through the capital flow. Will relatively low large funds enter the market and will the market turn? Will relatively high capital come out and will the market turn? The choice of individual stocks is to choose hot speculation or ambush and other large funds to sedan chair, which are inseparable from the judgment of capital flow.
So when we analyze the stock market, we must put the capital analysis in the first place. In the final analysis, whenever and wherever, the stock circulation market will always be the game and promotion of capital.
Inspection method of large-scale capital flow and individual stock flow.
Moneyflow is a mature technical index in the world. The calculation method is simple. For example, if the steel plate index rises within 9:50 minutes compared with the previous minute, the turnover within 9:50 minutes will be counted as capital inflow, otherwise it will be counted as capital outflow, and if the index has not changed compared with the previous minute, it will not be counted. Calculated once every minute and summarized once a day, the difference between capital inflow and outflow is the net capital inflow of the day.
The significance of this calculation method lies in: the volume generated when the index is rising is the driving force for the index to rise, and this volume is defined as capital inflow; The trading volume when the index falls is the power to push the index down, which is defined as capital outflow; The difference between the two forces on that day is the net force that pushes the index up after the two forces cancel each other out, that is, the net inflow of funds of the plate on that day. In other words, the capital flow measures the power to push the index up and down, reflecting people's pessimism or optimism about the industry.
Starting from today, I will write out the lies I often see in stock analysis and share them with my friends who are retail investors. Its purpose is to tell you not to blindly believe the seemingly well-founded analysis of stock critics, to recognize lies and the truth they cover up, to trust your own judgment in stock operation, and to minimize the chance of being cheated by lies.
Many stock market analysis softwares have a function of calculating the net inflow or outflow of a stock on a certain day or even within a certain period of time. Stock critics will use these data to judge the trend of a stock (or even a sector) when needed. If it is a net inflow, the conclusion is that there are main funds involved, and the market outlook is optimistic; If it is a net outflow, the conclusion is that there are funds fleeing and the market outlook is bearish. So, is the judgment based on the net inflow or outflow of funds credible?
First of all, let's understand how the net inflow or outflow of funds is calculated. Any software is not intelligent, and its data is calculated according to the formula designed by the software designer. Generally speaking, the software just subtracts the number of hands in the inner disk from the number of hands in the outer disk and multiplies it by the average transaction price of the day to get the net capital flow of the day. If the outer disk is larger than the inner disk, it is a net inflow of funds, and vice versa. Some software may have more complex calculation formulas and more comprehensive data, such as separate calculation of large orders and small orders, such as accumulation after calculation with the number of transactions at various price points. However, its basic principle is to distinguish the outer disk and the inner disk for calculation according to the transaction situation of market return. First of all, it is assumed that the number of inside and outside hands is true, that is, it is excluded that the dealer fabricates the number of inside and outside hands through various tricks. Is the concept of net inflow or net outflow of funds valid? As we all know, only if you buy and sell can you reach a deal. For the seller, money is flowing out, so the buyer wants to get these shares, don't he have to pay? If they give money, why not inflow? Let's talk about the division between the outer disk and the inner disk. If you want to buy a stock at the current price or higher, as far as your operating motivation is concerned, it should be divided into active buying, that is, external buying. But when you commissioned it, the price you quoted was already lower than the price of selling one. At this time, there happens to be an active sell order (so-called active sell order), then your transaction will be displayed on the system as an active sell order, that is, the inner disk. You are wronged! Originally, you took the initiative to buy, but it was counted as an active sale by the system. The whole thing is upside down. Think about it. Does this happen often? Then, how credible is the so-called trader's participation attitude reflected by the external and internal market statistics of the market system? For another example, a person in Beijing wants to buy ICBC for 7 yuan, and a person in Nanjing wants to sell ICBC for 7 yuan at the same time, and it is the same number of shares. Two people, one wants to buy and the other wants to sell. For ICBC's stock, it should be said that the attitude of participants is balanced. However, the switching host always receives instructions from one person before receiving instructions from another. Then, for the same transaction, whose instructions are received first, the final transaction statistics are completely different. I received instructions from Beijingers first, and then from Nanjing. As soon as the transaction is completed, it will be considered as an inner disk; And first received instructions from Nanjing people, and then received instructions from Beijing people. Once the transaction is completed, it is counted as an external disk. For an extreme example, if a stock is traded only once a day, whether it is an internal or external market is actually random, or it can be said that it is decided by God. Good boy! Is this statistic credible? In addition to the above examples, the dealer can easily count the number of transactions (which should be the internal market) thrown by himself as the external market through some means, or on the contrary, deceive the retail investors who rely too much on statistical data for operational decisions.
This is also one of the reasons why many retail investors stare at the market unblinkingly and are finally cheated. It is impossible to completely avoid being cheated, but what we need to do is that with the accumulation of experience, the number of being cheated is getting less and less.
It should be pointed out that I believe that the designers of market trading software designed these functions, and their original intention was definitely not to deceive people, but to increase the highlights of their own software, hoping to increase sales. Unfortunately, however, this function is not only used by the dealer as a reason to deceive retail investors, but also as a material for many retail friends to scare themselves. Therefore, retail friends, don't be superstitious about statistics. More important than this is to grasp the general trend, fully understand the fundamentals of the stock, try to figure out the trend of the main force, and advance and retreat with the main force. Of course, it is difficult to do this, but we should not give up independent thinking just because it is not easy.
EPFR data: Gold funds get large-scale net inflow of funds.
EPFR Global, an authoritative fund flow monitoring agency, pointed out in its latest Weekend Report that in the second statistical week in March, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine still occupied major media? Headlines? With the further warming of market risk aversion, Japanese, China and other Asia-Pacific equity funds have seen the biggest net redemption of Zhou Du funds this year.
Generally speaking, as of the week of March 65438, 2002, EPFR tracked the net absorption of global equity funds of $ 365438+ billion; The global bond fund has a net gold intake of 3.4 billion US dollars; Global money market funds attracted a net capital of $7.8 billion, most of which flowed into euro and yen funds. At the same time, the gold fund has a large-scale net inflow of funds.
The Asia-Pacific stock base was redeemed on a large scale.
According to EPFR data, as of the week of March 12, both the Japanese stock base and the Chinese stock base experienced the largest outflow of Zhou Du funds since the first quarter of 2008, and the net redemption amount of funds also reached a new high in the year; Asia-Pacific stock base also recorded the largest capital outflow from Zhou Du since the third quarter of 2007.
EPFR stressed that for the Asia-Pacific stock market, apart from the tense geopolitical situation in Ukraine, some economic data of important economies such as Japan and China are worse than expected, which is also an important reason why investors are bearish on the region and continue to withdraw their funds.
EPFR pointed out in the report, what is the recent geopolitical situation in Ukraine? Nothing happened. It is likely to have an impact on global capital flows. But through it? Nervous period? After that, the influence of unrelated financial markets will gradually disappear, while the Russian stock market and the European bond market may be continuously affected. In the week ending March 12, the Russian stock base experienced the largest net outflow of funds since the second quarter of last year, while the European debt base experienced the first net outflow of funds since last year 12, and the inflow of funds from the European stock base also hit a new low since the week of 17.
Gold is further optimistic.
EPFR data also shows that, supported by risk aversion, as of the week of March 12, there was a large-scale net inflow of gold funds monitored by institutions, and the net amount of Zhou Du reached a new high in a month. Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has risen by 15%, which is better than the performance of US stocks in the same period. At present, many big banks are optimistic about this year's gold prospects.
Citibank analysts pointed out in the latest report released on June 5438+05 that the price of gold has now broken through the strong resistance zone of 1350- 1362 USD/oz, and will further explore. From a technical point of view, the gold price has further opened up the upward channel, which is expected to test the key double-bottom neckline of 1434 USD. If the price of gold can rise to this level in the next few weeks, then the price of gold has already gone. Double bottom form? It is expected to further explore 1680 to 1685 USD. If the gold price can get out of the above trend, Citigroup strongly suggests that the adjusted bottom should be $65,438 +0 182.
Royal Bank of Scotland recently raised the average price of gold and silver in 20 14 years by nearly 10%, and emphasized the reasons. The precious metal market atmosphere has changed significantly? .
Hansen, head of Shengbao's commodity strategy department, believes that precious metals such as gold will maintain an upward trend this year as a whole, and may even get out of a round? Small bull market? . He thinks:? Because of the accumulation of various risks, even if one risk retreats, another risk is aggravated. The risk aversion of the market cannot be dispelled at all, which is the most important reason for the strong support of gold prices. ? In addition, the demand for gold from China and other places will remain high. Thirdly, the recent low level of the US dollar index has also enhanced the upward momentum of precious metals.
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