negative effects of "unified" monetary policy and its corrective measures

—— Investigation and empirical analysis of macro-control effects in Taizhou

Research group of Taizhou Central Sub-branch of the People's Bank of China

1. From a macro perspective: negative effects brought by "unified" monetary policy control situation

China's monetary policy operation has always adopted a national "chess game"

. In this way, the state can regulate and control the total social supply and demand from the total amount < P > and promote the basic balance between the two, thus ensuring the realization of macroeconomic goals. The "one-size-fits-all" monetary

policy operation seldom takes into account the level difference of regional economic development

. As the regional economic development is unbalanced, the depth and breadth of finance are different < P >, and there is a big gap between the social basis and the conditions of economic development < P > for monetary policy, therefore, it plays a different role in regional economic development. The effect of monetary policy in the economic development of less-developed areas and more

developed areas is obviously different, which has a certain negative impact.

(1) Indifferent management in monetary policy operation is not conducive to the harmonious development of the whole society

The differences in different economic systems and economic development levels

determine that there are differences in economic fluctuation cycles in different regions, and the regulation effect of goods

currency policy is correspondingly contrasted. After the new round of

macro-control, the central bank's contractive monetary policy orientation has a significant effect on

preventing the economy from overheating in developed areas such as southern Jiangsu, but

for underdeveloped areas, the financial macro-control policy appears to be

premature. In the first quarter of 24, the investment in fixed assets in Taizhou's economically underdeveloped Xinghua City increased by 13.12% year-on-year, which was 53.58 and 73.48 percentage points lower than that of the whole province and Jiangsu Province, respectively. The macro-control monetary policy since 23 will undoubtedly have a greater inhibitory effect on xinghua city, which has just entered a new round of economic growth cycle.

since p>24, with a series of macro-control measures launched by the state, Taizhou's real estate

market, which is in a healthy development cycle, has cooled down "prematurely", and the

proportion of real estate investment in the total social investment has declined for the first time since the establishment of the market, and even the phenomenon of queuing to buy houses has appeared in recent years.

Taizhou is an important frontier of the development strategy along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, but

the credit resources occupied by the frontier positions are relatively low. From the regional distribution of new

loans in 25, it is not difficult to see that Taixing and Jingjiang, which are included in the frontier position of

development along the Yangtze River in the whole province, accounted for 11% and 19% of new loans in the whole year, respectively, which were 34 points and 26 points lower than Hailing. Credit investment is out of place with the current hot land of production and investment, and the main position and location conditions of development along the < P > River have not been fully demonstrated < P >.

(2) Indifferent management of monetary policy operation is not conducive to the survival and sustainable development of residents and enterprises

In economically underdeveloped areas, the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents is generally greater than 45%, which is 1-15 percentage points higher than that of economically developed areas. Economically developed areas have entered an affluent society, while underdeveloped areas have just entered a well-off stage, and a considerable number of people have only solved the problem of

food and clothing. Therefore, in underdeveloped areas, the conditions and abilities of urban and rural residents to undertake the national monetary policy are very limited, and the required funds are mainly solved by self-raised funds and private loans, which greatly increases the burden on residents and enterprises. According to the investigation of 68 enterprises in Taizhou area, after the state strengthened macro-control in 24, the interest rate of private financing increased significantly. In 23, the interest rate of financing from enterprises to individuals was around 8‰, and it was basically around 1‰ in May 24. In the fourth quarter of 24, financial institutions in Taizhou invested 577 million yuan, and the investment dropped significantly. At the end of 24, the interest rate of private financing rose to around 11‰.

According to a typical survey of 2 rural families: xinghua city, Taizhou

After macro-control in p>24, the total scale of private financing increased by 16, yuan, and the financing cost increased by 25%. According to the special research

, the total amount of financing among citizens in 24 was 567 million yuan, 189 million yuan more than that in p>23, with an increase of 5%, of which, the proportion of investment in

"hot industries" was 37%. It can be considered that: after the regulatory role

appears, even when the financing cost is rising, more micro

small enterprises mainly prefer private financing, and the main financing behavior is not

affected by the "depth" of national macro-control.

The problem of small and medium-sized enterprises' loan

is relatively well solved in economically developed areas, while the small and medium-sized enterprises in underdeveloped areas are too small in scale, poor in operation and credit status, low in credit rating,

imperfect in local credit guarantee system, and low in meeting the loan demand of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially small enterprises, which has become a blind spot that monetary policy cannot cover

. After the macro-control in 24,

the "Matthew effect" in Taizhou became more obvious. The financing difficulty of small and medium-sized enterprises and areas with relatively weak economy < P > has increased. According to the survey, the financing problem of

SMEs in rural areas is more prominent. In 25, the share of new

loans and the newly-increased loan-to-deposit ratio in the counties under its jurisdiction were only 5% and 41.4%, which were 15.6 percentage points and 16.9 percentage points lower than the same

ratio respectively. According to

a survey of 26 small private enterprises in the old Huangqiao area in the fourth quarter of 25, the satisfaction rate of bank loans was only 38.57%, which was

24.16 percentage points lower than that in the same period.

(3) Indifferent management in monetary policy operation is not conducive to the effective transmission of monetary policy signals

In this round of macro-control, although the central government has repeatedly emphasized "keeping pressure", due to the lack of flexibility and flexibility in the credit control mechanism of some commercial banks, when implementing macro-control policies, hard control measures such as loan balance control are often used more often, especially. Some commercial financial institutions have not been able to fundamentally get out of the situation of "once released, they will live, once controlled, they will die". At one time, the credit lending showed a sharp decline trend, and at a certain point, it also showed the phenomenon of "only receiving and not letting go", and there was an imbalance in the increase of loan-to-deposit ratio in the whole year. In the first quarter of 24, the net increase of loans was < P > 3.915 billion yuan, up by 36.41% year-on-year. From April to November, the macro-control effect was obvious, and the growth rate of loans continued to accelerate, and < P > reached the bottom in October, with a net decrease of 421 million yuan in that month. In December

, affected by the start of some new reserve projects and the relaxation of credit plan control at the end of the year

, there was a sharp recovery rebound, with a net increase of

775 million yuan, an increase of 1.452 billion yuan over the same period of last year. There are obvious deviations between the loan growth and the

production and operation cycle of enterprises, the timeliness of credit supply and the matching of

effectiveness required by economic development.

New loans in the whole year are highly concentrated at the beginning and end of the year, and the proportion of new loans in the first quarter and

December is as high as

74%, up 37 percentage points year-on-year. At the end of the year, the proportion of new < P > loans in medium and long-term loans increased by 4.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the proportion of short-term loans decreased by 1.13 percentage points.

the operating conditions of financial institutions, the perfection of financial service organization system

and the development of financial markets have great influence on the effectiveness of monetary policy

transmission through financial institutions. From the perspective of regional structure, new loans are further concentrated in developed regions. In 25,

the amount of new loans in urban areas accounted for 5% of all new loans, accounting for

an increase of 1 percentage points over the previous year. The share of new loans in Xinghua < P > City and Jiangyan City, which are relatively weak in economy, is only 11% and 9%, which are 5% and 7% lower than the previous year respectively. In this round of macro

control, in xinghua city, an underdeveloped area, the scale of commercial banks'

operation is relatively small, the rate of non-performing loans is relatively high, and the pressure of "double decline" is very great, which greatly reduces the credit capacity. In this case,

most commercial banks will receive the loan authority from their branches, and the county branch

banks basically have no right to lend; The loan-to-deposit ratio of the four major state-owned commercial banks is lower than that of

, so it is difficult to convert more deposits into loans, and it is difficult to realize the intention of monetary policy to support local economic development through increasing credit supply by financial institutions of banks

. Securities and insurance institutions are small in scale, few in number, the total amount of capital transactions in the market

is not large, the financial market as a whole is very underdeveloped, and

monetary policy signals are partially "distorted" when transmitted through the financial market.

as the macro-control function continues to appear, the capital chain of some enterprises will be affected to varying degrees, and the stock loans of enterprises are still at risk of deterioration. By the end of 25, excluding the factors of policy divestiture and write-off, the non-performing loans in Taizhou actually increased by 13 million yuan compared with the beginning of the year, among which

the wholly state-owned commercial banks increased by 288 million yuan and other commercial banks increased by 16 million yuan.

(D) Indifferent management in monetary policy operation is ultimately unfavorable to the realization of control objectives

After macro-control, low-income groups and downstream enterprises are under greater pressure of rising prices

, and the negative impact on local economy is worth paying attention to

Note. The central bank's goal of stabilizing the currency and curbing inflation is far from being achieved. First, the life of the low-income class has become more difficult. Grain, oil,

meat, vegetables, coal and liquefied gas are indispensable aspects of residents' daily consumption. If the price increase of above 2% is affordable for the middle-income class, it is unbearable for the low-income class. The price trend of high operation is a trend of steady growth for urban and rural residents. Second,

some downstream production enterprises are unsustainable. Coal, electricity, oil, transportation, agricultural products

and steel are the most important production factors of industrial enterprises. In the case of oversupply of consumer products, it is difficult to transfer and digest the increase of production costs

. The price increase has a certain impact on transportation and chemical industry. According to the survey of Xinghua Transportation Company, after the macro-control in p>4, the direct cost of each passenger car will increase due to the

increase in fuel price. From January to December, the cost will increase by 27 million yuan, and the cost will increase by 18%. According to the investigation of

Taixing Chemical Development Zone, the overall cost of its leading product

increased by 25% from January to December in 25, of which 88% of the rising cost was caused by the rising price of coal. From January to December, the total profit decreased by 45.12% compared with

, a decrease of 26 million yuan. Third, the efficiency of some industrial enterprises has declined. Judging from the situation of 3 enterprises with industrial prosperity measured by our central sub-branch in 25, the judgment indexes of enterprises on the purchase price of raw materials and the comprehensive price level of means of production

increased by 21 and 15 percentage points respectively compared with the same period, and the production cost of most middle and lower reaches enterprises

increased much faster than the price of consumer goods

, and the profit space of enterprises decreased and the loss area increased. From January to December, the product sales cost and total profit of gas enterprises increased by

26.11% and decreased by 12.36% respectively. At the same time, due to the sudden

decline in investment growth rate, the inventory of some enterprises in the investment field increased rapidly

. At the end of December, the inventory of prosperous enterprises increased by 16 million yuan year-on-year, an increase of 4.59%. The decline of enterprise benefits will inevitably have a negative impact on the security of bank credit assets < P >.

Second, the regional orientation of monetary policy: We should properly solve three questions and correctly handle three pairs of contradictions

Under the condition that the financial gap between different economic regions in China is becoming more and more obvious

, centralized and unified financial policies will inevitably lead to obvious differences in policy effects among regional economic development, resulting in different outputs among various economies

, which is not conducive to regional economic cooperation

. Therefore, according to the requirements of Scientific Outlook on Development, on the basis of aggregate adjustment

control, according to the current situation of different regional economic development, it should be a realistic requirement to strengthen and improve financial regulation and control in the future by implementing structural regulation and control through regional monetary policies with

moderate differences, so as to promote the organic integration of

monetary policies in aggregate adjustment and moderate differences.

to achieve this requirement, we must properly handle the following relations and spears

:

-properly handle the relationship between the requirement of centralization and unity of monetary policy

and regional orientation, and correctly handle the contradiction between the commercial operation direction of financial enterprises and the comparative benefits of county economy, especially agriculture, countryside and farmers

. Monetary policy should focus on promoting economic growth and promoting the coordinated development of regional economy in the orientation of structural regulation and regionalization. In terms of policy choice and system design, the branches of the People's Bank of China should be given necessary authorization and effective incentives to realize the symmetry among information, power and responsibility. Only in this way can we

determine the regional monetary policy in line with their respective regional particularities within a certain range

without violating the unity of monetary policy. In

rural areas, we should fully understand the weak benefits of the "three rural issues", the "fragility" of rural finance and the deep spear

shield of the direction of commercial operation, and develop a monetary and credit policy that is suitable for the rural economic and industrial policy.

-properly handle the relationship between total

quantity stability and regional coordination in the evaluation of monetary policy implementation effect, and correctly handle the contradiction between the impulse of

functional expansion of financial services and the value orientation of financial management. Practice

has proved that it is very difficult for the people's bank of China to achieve the monetary policy goal

of currency stability if the economies of various regions and industries cannot develop in harmony

. Therefore, in the evaluation of currency stability

, in addition to the current total amount evaluation, we should also formulate an indicator system for monitoring regional financial development differences that can reflect the focus of regional economic and financial development, so as to make it one of the

monitoring targets for evaluating the implementation effect of monetary policy, and provide decision-making basis and regulation for regulating the regional distribution and industry distribution of funds and realizing the coordinated development of regional economy

. First, we should formulate economic development that can reflect the degree of marketization, monetization and integration of different regional economic development.